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  #1  
Old 04-11-2012, 10:57 AM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ranger5830 View Post
MTB was severely overbet, even at 50-1. I think the consensus is that fair value for him as far as accurately predicting his chances to win was at least 150-1. But both the Borel factor and the Giacomo factor knocked his price down.
I agree he was severely overbet. In my line MTB was 100-1.

--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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  #2  
Old 04-11-2012, 12:59 PM
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Travis Stone Travis Stone is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Louisiana
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
I agree he was severely overbet. In my line MTB was 100-1.

--Dunbar
What was Mine That Bird in the exotics though? I've always felt the win odds don't represent the true wagering in the Kentucky Derby. Even though there is a lot of volume, more once-a-year racegoers bet into the win pool vs. the others.
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