Union Rags Derby odds?

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

And those two are as likely as any other individuals. Borel was definately overbet last year, but Street Sense was fair, MTB underbet I guess, and Super Saver was about fair IMO.

MTB was severely overbet, even at 50-1. I think the consensus is that fair value for him as far as accurately predicting his chances to win was at least 150-1. But both the Borel factor and the Giacomo factor knocked his price down. Street Sense was probably about fair value but of course Borel had never won a derby at that point so his effect on the odds was much less than it is now, espescially among the casual fans who show up once a year just to bet the derby.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

MTB was severely overbet, even at 50-1. I think the consensus is that fair value for him as far as accurately predicting his chances to win was at least 150-1. But both the Borel factor and the Giacomo factor knocked his price down.

I agree he was severely overbet. In my line MTB was 100-1.

--Dunbar

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I agree he was severely overbet. In my line MTB was 100-1.

--Dunbar

What was Mine That Bird in the exotics though? I've always felt the win odds don't represent the true wagering in the Kentucky Derby. Even though there is a lot of volume, more once-a-year racegoers bet into the win pool vs. the others.