2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

[TBJUNKY]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

He's too busy finding spots for Raconteur, Stat, Windsurfer, and Heavy Breathing to focus on his actual contenders.

I wonder if El Padrino will be an 11th hour addition to the Lexington if next Saturday's preps knock him further down the list.

Owners website announced they would not enter him in another race until the derby(if he makes it in).

[3kings]

Updated this morning.

http://www.dailyracingnews.com/colum...rnings-2012-2/

[HaloWishingwell]

Baffert's Bodemeister must win the Arkansas Derby to make the earnings cut. Second place is worth $200,000 which would only bring his earnings to $260,000. It would be outside the top 20 and with more stake races still left to go.

[Travis Stone]

The graded earnings stuff is starting to reach fever pitch. I think this year it could really blow-up depending on how a few things shake-out.

A horse like El Padrino, having won a "key" 3yo prep and having run a decent enough race in the Florida Derby, is more deserving of a chance than say a 2yo sprinter. Went The Day Well, whether you like him or not, is supposed to be in the gate for the Derby, but is currently 19th. Yes, I know, a lot can happen between now and May (and a lot will), but still.

I'm sorta tired of the "when was the last time a legit horse was left out" stuff because suddenly, particularly this year, graded earnings are more common than 7-Elevens's and Circle K's.

On the flip side, it feels as though this system is going to force trainers to actually run their horses a bit... and the "two prep" method might suffer a bit, which is a good thing.

[Mike]

Why isn't Ever So Lucky listed in the Graded earnings? He was 3rd in a Grade III this year, and 2nd in a Grade II last year. Plus, he's entered in the Bluegrass, though he doesn't look good to me in that race, it's possible he could get 3rd.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Mike

Why isn't Ever So Lucky listed in the Graded earnings? He was 3rd in a Grade III this year, and 2nd in a Grade II last year. Plus, he's entered in the Bluegrass, though he doesn't look good to me in that race, it's possible he could get 3rd.

On another list I saw him at $48,502.

[Mike]

Thanks. With only $48k Ever So Lucky would have to get 2nd place to have any shot.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The graded earnings stuff is starting to reach fever pitch. I think this year it could really blow-up depending on how a few things shake-out.

A horse like El Padrino, having won a "key" 3yo prep and having run a decent enough race in the Florida Derby, is more deserving of a chance than say a 2yo sprinter. Went The Day Well, whether you like him or not, is supposed to be in the gate for the Derby, but is currently 19th. Yes, I know, a lot can happen between now and May (and a lot will), but still.

I'm sorta tired of the "when was the last time a legit horse was left out" stuff because suddenly, particularly this year, graded earnings are more common than 7-Elevens's and Circle K's.

On the flip side, it feels as though this system is going to force trainers to actually run their horses a bit... and the "two prep" method might suffer a bit, which is a good thing.

I agree about the earnings thing, but not necessarily with your examples of El Padrino and Went The Day Well.

If El Padrino doesn't make the cut, blame the connections. They ditched the obvious and logical course of action of starting him in the Louisiana Derby. While the Risen Star is an important springboard, it is not really a "prep" in its own right. Looking at the 1-2-3 finishers in its past 30 runnings, only Risen Star and Mucho Macho Man have even hit the board in the Kentucky Derby (both 3rd in 1988 and 2011). I know Tejano Run came out of that race as well, but overall it hasn't been particularly productive.

Went The Day Well won the Spiral, which is a Grade 3 race. While it has the recency of Animal Kingdom's one-in-a-million double, its hardly recognized as a marquee race anymore, and its running on a synthetic surface does it no favors. In addition, Went The Day Well has done little outside of this race, so he actually could be considered a horse that is riding the "earnings gravy train" straight into the Derby, with little to back it up.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Baffert's Bodemeister must win the Arkansas Derby to make the earnings cut. Second place is worth $200,000 which would only bring his earnings to $260,000. It would be outside the top 20 and with more stake races still left to go.

I think $260,000 gets a horse in the gate actually.

I don't see Wrote going, unless I've missed some recent news. Sabercat's connections are going to have a hard time sending him after he has no impact in the AD. I doubt Baffert sends Drill after he gets beat by a pole this weekend, and he's probably smart enough to know Liason is a waste of time as well. On Fire Baby? Rousing Sermon?

Then, I hate to say it, but there will be at least one horse get sick or injured as well.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Sabercat's connections are going to have a hard time sending him after he has no impact in the AD.

I think he goes unless he's hurt...

“Obviously, he’s got enough earnings to go,” said Ron Winchell, the 39-year-old son of Verne Winchell, the founder of Winchell’s Donuts who died in 2002. “I’m hoping in the next two starts he kind of validates himself as a real player. But even if he doesn’t win the next two races, we’re probably going forward to the Derby, just because the way it lays out. It’s such a different race. The dynamics of that race are so profoundly different. I’ve kind of changed my opinion of it the last five years. Horses that win sometimes aren’t the obvious winners. If you’ve got a horse that can get the distance and qualifies, it’s almost worth taking a shot.”

http://www.drf.com/news/oaklawn-park...hells-asmussen

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think he goes unless he's hurt...



http://www.drf.com/news/oaklawn-park...hells-asmussen

You know Liaison and Drill will be there as well.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You know Liaison and Drill will be there as well.

I like the sly move of putting Drill in the undercard at Oaklawn rather than exposing him in the Blue Grass. That way it won't be so obvious that the horse is in there to keep an AE horse out of the body of the race.

I wonder if he tries a Hail Mary with Stirred Up in one of the Keeneland races instead.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Sabercat was at the top of my list early on, even off those less than stellar wins at 2, they were wins nonetheless.. I will be interested to see if there is any progression at 3 (I can toss the Rebel as needing one) in the Ark before completely dismissing, but typically the "free ride" that the horse gets for winning the Delta Jackpot Stakes has never really impacted the the Derby trail or the Kentucky Derby

[justindew]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You know Liaison and Drill will be there as well.

Trinniberg is listed as 15% for the Derby, 85% for the Preakness. Which of course means 100% for the Derby and 75% for the Preakness as well.