2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Baffert's Bodemeister must win the Arkansas Derby to make the earnings cut. Second place is worth $200,000 which would only bring his earnings to $260,000. It would be outside the top 20 and with more stake races still left to go.

I think $260,000 gets a horse in the gate actually.

I don't see Wrote going, unless I've missed some recent news. Sabercat's connections are going to have a hard time sending him after he has no impact in the AD. I doubt Baffert sends Drill after he gets beat by a pole this weekend, and he's probably smart enough to know Liason is a waste of time as well. On Fire Baby? Rousing Sermon?

Then, I hate to say it, but there will be at least one horse get sick or injured as well.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Sabercat's connections are going to have a hard time sending him after he has no impact in the AD.

I think he goes unless he's hurt...

“Obviously, he’s got enough earnings to go,” said Ron Winchell, the 39-year-old son of Verne Winchell, the founder of Winchell’s Donuts who died in 2002. “I’m hoping in the next two starts he kind of validates himself as a real player. But even if he doesn’t win the next two races, we’re probably going forward to the Derby, just because the way it lays out. It’s such a different race. The dynamics of that race are so profoundly different. I’ve kind of changed my opinion of it the last five years. Horses that win sometimes aren’t the obvious winners. If you’ve got a horse that can get the distance and qualifies, it’s almost worth taking a shot.”

http://www.drf.com/news/oaklawn-park...hells-asmussen

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think he goes unless he's hurt...



http://www.drf.com/news/oaklawn-park...hells-asmussen

You know Liaison and Drill will be there as well.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You know Liaison and Drill will be there as well.

I like the sly move of putting Drill in the undercard at Oaklawn rather than exposing him in the Blue Grass. That way it won't be so obvious that the horse is in there to keep an AE horse out of the body of the race.

I wonder if he tries a Hail Mary with Stirred Up in one of the Keeneland races instead.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Sabercat was at the top of my list early on, even off those less than stellar wins at 2, they were wins nonetheless.. I will be interested to see if there is any progression at 3 (I can toss the Rebel as needing one) in the Ark before completely dismissing, but typically the "free ride" that the horse gets for winning the Delta Jackpot Stakes has never really impacted the the Derby trail or the Kentucky Derby

[justindew]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You know Liaison and Drill will be there as well.

Trinniberg is listed as 15% for the Derby, 85% for the Preakness. Which of course means 100% for the Derby and 75% for the Preakness as well.

[justindew]

Considering Exothermic hasn't had a published work in six weeks, I'm guessing he's no longer under consideration for the Blue Grass or Lexington and my $200 Wynn futuer wager on him at 85-1 can now be used as a place to put my chewed gum.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by justindew

Considering Exothermic hasn't had a published work in six weeks, I'm guessing he's no longer under consideration for the Blue Grass or Lexington and my $200 Wynn futuer wager on him at 85-1 can now be used as a place to put my chewed gum.

Rusty Arnold on ATR earlier. Summer turf stake campaign.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by justindew

Considering Exothermic hasn't had a published work in six weeks, I'm guessing he's no longer under consideration for the Blue Grass or Lexington and my $200 Wynn futuer wager on him at 85-1 can now be used as a place to put my chewed gum.

$200 on a turf horse to win the Derby...

[justindew]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

$200 on a turf horse to win the Derby...

That's what people said about Animal Kingdom. And have you seen how the horses that Exothermic has beaten have performed in subsequent starts?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by justindew

Trinniberg is listed as 15% for the Derby, 85% for the Preakness. Which of course means 100% for the Derby and 75% for the Preakness as well.

Too easy.