Bounce theory

[Rudeboyelvis]

My 2 cents - (and not really even worth 2 cents)
I believe what Thunder Gulch says - that the top horses simply don't run enough to "bounce", but I see it in day to day claimers that run every 2-3 weeks - they will work themselves up to a fit/conditioned level, then bounce off a top effort - here is an example from today's 3rd at Tampa:



In very broad terms, the Beyers give you a fair account of this one's best efforts, and shows the bounce afterward

Thorograph does a much better job illustrating this point:



I'm sure there are sheet players that may disagree with this assessment, but for me, this horse is a major bounce candidate today, even though she actually fits the race and the 10-1 morning line will not be close to the post time line ('Im, guessing 9-2 to 6-1).

all that said, might be a good idea to throw a few bucks on her nose