Bounce theory

A bounce is a physical reaction to a maximum effort.

Let's say you go to the gym every day. On each machine you can solidly do 25 reps.

As you begin to get stronger and in better shape one day you feel especially strong. So instead of your usual 25 you bang out 30 on each and feel like a badass doing it. You've just run a new top!

Next day you feel it more. Bit more stiffness and soreness. Nothing wrong with that. Great to feel that way. However if you went back the following day not only could you not repeat the 30 you'd be hard pressed to return to the old plateau of 25. What happened? You bounced.

When the body does something special and better than ever before it needs more time to recover.

Same with horses except they can't tell their trainer.

Good grief. Thoroughbred horses are not equal to some fat ass going to workout everyday.

Please Lord strike me with lightning so I don't have to read this horsesh.it any longer.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Good grief. Thoroughbred horses are not equal to some fat ass going to workout everyday.

Please Lord strike me with lightning so I don't have to read this horsesh.it any longer.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Good grief. Thoroughbred horses are not equal to some fat ass going to workout everyday.

Please Lord strike me with lightning so I don't have to read this horsesh.it any longer.

OK - same question to you - are "bounces" real or not? Are they causal or just variations in performance that can't be anticipated?

[Danzig]

i'm pretty sure after a few days working out, the person who got to 30 could get back to 30 again-or higher. you know, just like a horse doesn't go right back to the track the day after a big effort to try to repeat it? i've seen horses run back a week after a win and win again. it doesn't happen often since most trainers are too chicken to try with their big horses, but trainers who know when their horses are at their peak do it successfully. bobby frankel immediately comes to mind, with a turf filly a few years back.

there's a theory that horses can't keep improving-that sooner or later they will either fail to duplicate a big effort or perhaps tail off. not quite the same as a bounce theory, which thinks a horse will fall back after one big effort. some horses have one big race and never duplicate it, whereas others have many-that's not the same thing at all.

[knickslions2]

I had the same problem. St Patrick's Day I drank 25 beers and a few shots of Jameson. Sunday I could barely drink water.

[rpncaine]

[Thunder Gulch]

Enough trainers believe it to have ruined racing at the highest level. The inbreeding for brilliance has been a factor, but nowadays the G1 animals plan a campaign built around training up to 5 races a year. No more finding an allowance to tighten up, and no more 10 race campaigns.

As for bouncing...I do believe reaction to top efforts has an impact, but just as often I think everyone is quick to say a horse bounced, when the race dynamics changed enough to prevent a repeat.

Originally Posted by joeydb

OK - same question to you - are "bounces" real or not? Are they causal or just variations in performance that can't be anticipated?

I'm not a horse trainer so my answer would be ridiculous. It's a complex issue and calling a bad performance a bounce is simple.

I do know that human athletes taper for big events for top performances and that it can take up to 6 months to get back to peak form.

[snakeb]

I understand the theory. I wish I could find examples of top horses bouncing. In my opinion it's just the connections using that as an excuse to why their horse didnt perform to their expectations.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

A bounce is a physical reaction to a maximum effort.

Let's say you go to the gym every day. On each machine you can solidly do 25 reps.

As you begin to get stronger and in better shape one day you feel especially strong. So instead of your usual 25 you bang out 30 on each and feel like a badass doing it. You've just run a new top!

Next day you feel it more. Bit more stiffness and soreness. Nothing wrong with that. Great to feel that way. However if you went back the following day not only could you not repeat the 30 you'd be hard pressed to return to the old plateau of 25. What happened? You bounced.

When the body does something special and better than ever before it needs more time to recover.

Same with horses except they can't tell their trainer.

I think that's a good definition. Keeping with your workout analogy, you might have a superior horse after an effort if there was no long term injury, after the short term recovery is complete.

You'd also have to isolate any other causes as best you can. A lower Beyer reached as the result of a bad start would give us doubt about it being a "bounce" event.

If the track conditions were especially favorable one day, similar to the case where the gym athlete happened to workout when they FINALLY lubed the weight stack, and the horse ran better than he could otherwise and then reverts to normal performance - that would not be a bounce either.

And, absent of any cause we could find through observation or searching the recorded data, variations in performance just occur. To me, like your definition of a physical reaction, a real bounce would have to be an interdependence of performances - one driving the subsequent potential lower, actively.