Bounce theory

[knickslions2]

I had the same problem. St Patrick's Day I drank 25 beers and a few shots of Jameson. Sunday I could barely drink water.

[rpncaine]

[Thunder Gulch]

Enough trainers believe it to have ruined racing at the highest level. The inbreeding for brilliance has been a factor, but nowadays the G1 animals plan a campaign built around training up to 5 races a year. No more finding an allowance to tighten up, and no more 10 race campaigns.

As for bouncing...I do believe reaction to top efforts has an impact, but just as often I think everyone is quick to say a horse bounced, when the race dynamics changed enough to prevent a repeat.

[Rudeboyelvis]

My 2 cents - (and not really even worth 2 cents)
I believe what Thunder Gulch says - that the top horses simply don't run enough to "bounce", but I see it in day to day claimers that run every 2-3 weeks - they will work themselves up to a fit/conditioned level, then bounce off a top effort - here is an example from today's 3rd at Tampa:



In very broad terms, the Beyers give you a fair account of this one's best efforts, and shows the bounce afterward

Thorograph does a much better job illustrating this point:



I'm sure there are sheet players that may disagree with this assessment, but for me, this horse is a major bounce candidate today, even though she actually fits the race and the 10-1 morning line will not be close to the post time line ('Im, guessing 9-2 to 6-1).

all that said, might be a good idea to throw a few bucks on her nose

Wow. Good stuff Elvis.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Wow. Good stuff Elvis.

Thanks Vic.

The race just concluded - Royally Sweet could not have gotten a better trip under Goncalves, and looked like she would have no excuse at top of the stretch - but as expected, she faded quickly and wound up beating only one home.







She went off at 7-1 and actually took more money that the eventual 7-1 winner, who figured as well, but did not have this predictable bounce pattern in her form.

So this turned out to be a pretty practical example of "bounce theory" after all. take it or leave it, but it works for me

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Thanks Vic.

The race just concluded - Royally Sweet could not have gotten a better trip under Goncalves, and looked like he would have no excuse at top of the stretch - but as expected, he faded quickly and wound up beating only one home.






He went off at 7-1 and actually took more money that the eventual 7-1 winner, who figured as well, but did not have this predictable bounce pattern in her form.

So this turned out to be a pretty practical example of "bounce theory" after all. take it or leave it, but it works for me

Very interesting your observation of the race. Many trainers have told me they think the actual reaction to the previous huge effort doesn't happen until the exact moment the pressure is on to step up and do it again. Like at the quarter pole of the next race.

They eat well, they look well, they train strong, they're sitting perfect..................Nuthin.

Here's one thing that's an absolute fact. Whether bouncing does or does not exsist the theory has radically changed the game. Trainers get the Thoro-graph and Ragozin numbers and mark their charts and condition books as a direct result of those numbers.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

My 2 cents - (and not really even worth 2 cents)
I believe what Thunder Gulch says - that the top horses simply don't run enough to "bounce", but I see it in day to day claimers that run every 2-3 weeks - they will work themselves up to a fit/conditioned level, then bounce off a top effort - here is an example from today's 3rd at Tampa:



In very broad terms, the Beyers give you a fair account of this one's best efforts, and shows the bounce afterward

Thorograph does a much better job illustrating this point:



I'm sure there are sheet players that may disagree with this assessment, but for me, this horse is a major bounce candidate today, even though she actually fits the race and the 10-1 morning line will not be close to the post time line ('Im, guessing 9-2 to 6-1).

all that said, might be a good idea to throw a few bucks on her nose

or on the other hand...she improved from a 21 to a 41-i'd think people would have expected a bounce from her next out, since she doubled the effortfrom her previous. instead, she showed another improvement to a 53. further back, improved 11 points, and then added five on the next start. her best earlier was a 39-she didn't bounce, but moved up from that to the 44. also, note changes in distance from start to start. she dropped to a 21, but also shortened to 7f from a mile and 40. i think there's more to it than just looking at the beyer ups and downs. then there's the change in track from PID to Tam-surface change help her?
i think one trick is when to find a possible regression-but looking at her pp's, it looks like it's hard to say when that might come. she might improve a few more points next out, or she might not. if she improves again, i hope you have money on her!

[Cannon Shell]

Romanova, the winner of that race is out of a Nijinsky II mare. You dont see that much anymore.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Romanova, the winner of that race is out of a Nijinsky II mare. You dont see that much anymore.

Reverie was foaled in 1992, so she would have been 18 when she gave birth to Romanova.