obama should lose

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Riot

What's the Senate? (says 90% above ... )

it's 75%. there's a variety of contracts listed and the one for senate republicans 51 or more was selling at 90% but there was no volume. the higher volume contract for any republican majority was at 75%.

cook report has 8 democratic seats rated a toss up while only 2 republican seats (including brown's) fall in that category. all the other seats are rated "lean to" through "solidly" for the incumbent party.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

it's 75%. there's a variety of contracts listed and the one for senate republicans 51 or more was selling at 90% but there was no volume. the higher volume contract for any republican majority was at 75%.

cook report has 8 democratic seats rated a toss up while only 2 republican seats (including brown's) fall in that category. all the other seats are rated "lean to" through "solidly" for the incumbent party.

Thanks. If things continue to happen like the Scott Walker recall, Kasich continues to fall, Michigan continues to overturn municiple elections and appoint Governor-handpicked Czars to run towns, Scott in Florida continues disaster, the Arizona Republican party, and Nikki Haley is found to be obstructing Obamacares law, things will be very fluid.

At this early stage, all the Dems have to do is shut up and stay out of the limelight. The GOP is self-destructing in front of our eyes.

[Rileyoriley]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

it's 75%. there's a variety of contracts listed and the one for senate republicans 51 or more was selling at 90% but there was no volume. the higher volume contract for any republican majority was at 75%.

cook report has 8 democratic seats rated a toss up while only 2 republican seats (including brown's) fall in that category. all the other seats are rated "lean to" through "solidly" for the incumbent party.

Don't be too sure about Mass.. Brown has a very good approval rating here. People like him because he does not vote strictly along party lines. He is extremely popular among independents who make up the majority of voters here.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

Don't be too sure about Mass.. Brown has a very good approval rating here. People like him because he does not vote strictly along party lines. He is extremely popular among independents who make up the majority of voters here.

i'm not the least bit sure about brown. and i think the senate flips to the republicans even if he loses.

i was just commenting in response to riot's post about him being vulnerable and putting it in the larger context of democrats defending 8 vulnerable seats vs. republican's only defending 2.

[Rileyoriley]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i'm not the least bit sure about brown. and i think the senate flips to the republicans even if he loses.

i was just commenting in response to riot's post about him being vulnerable and putting it in the larger context of democrats defending 8 vulnerable seats vs. republican's only defending 2.

Sorry. I tend to skip Riot's posts and only saw yours.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i'm not the least bit sure about brown. and i think the senate flips to the republicans even if he loses.

i was just commenting in response to riot's post about him being vulnerable and putting it in the larger context of democrats defending 8 vulnerable seats vs. republican's only defending 2.

True the Dems have more seats to defend, but right now some of those states are being destroyed by their GOP govs, which will play into Dem hands. Brown is already massive points behind Warren, in a historically Dem Senate seat. But there's a long time to go yet. Trends are not even "real" now.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

Don't be too sure about Mass.. Brown has a very good approval rating here. People like him because he does not vote strictly along party lines. He is extremely popular among independents who make up the majority of voters here.

Deb-o Deb Rules!!!

[Rileyoriley]

Originally Posted by geeker2

Deb-o Deb Rules!!!

Brown is holding the lead over Warren and the 3 other Dem challengers. Warren is expected to win the Dem nomination.

If interested, go to realclearpolitics.com and look under Mass 2012 senate race.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

Brown is holding the lead over Warren and the 3 other Dem challengers. Warren is expected to win the Dem nomination.

If interested, go to realclearpolitics.com and look under Mass 2012 senate race.

I only use huffy and dailykouskouscus

[Riot]

..

Warren 49 Brown 42
BOSTON—Democratic U.S. Senate hopeful Elizabeth Warren has opened up a slight lead over Republican Sen. Scott Brown in a new poll.

The UMass-Lowell-Boston Herald poll of 500 registered voters found 49 percent would vote for Warren, a longtime consumer advocate, if they faced off in the general election. Forty-two percent would back Brown, who won the Senate seat after the death of long-serving Democrat Edward Kennedy.

Warren, a former White House adviser who helped set up the new federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, has a slight lead over Brown, 49 percent to 42 percent. Three percent of voters chose another candidate, and 9 percent were undecided. Brown trails Warren despite a 16-point lead among independent voters.

The poll, released Wednesday [ December 7 ] found Brown's job approval and favorability rating has slipped while Warren's numbers have climbed.

Realclear politics, Mass 2012 Senate Race: note the dates of each poll:
Poll Date Brown (R) Warren (D) Spread
RCP Average 8/30 - 12/6 44.3 43.0 Brown +1.3
UMass/Boston Herald 12/1 - 12/6 42 49 Warren +7
Western NE College 9/29 - 10/5 47 42 Brown +5
PPP (D) 9/16 - 9/18 44 46 Warren +2
WBUR/MassINC 8/30 - 9/1 44 35 Brown +9

[Rileyoriley]

I understand now why you think Warren is ahead. You are basing this on a Boston area poll. For the record, Boston area polls had Coakley (in the 2010 special election) ahead of Brown by +17, +30, and +31. A Boston poll will NEVER show a republican in the lead. It is a heavy democrat area as is the Amherst, Northampton area in western Ma. This is why it's important to note where the poll was taken.
Since early 2011, the democrat party has been test polling various Mass. dems against Brown. They all were well behind him in these test polls. Warren is the only one that received decent numbers hence she was drafted to run this fall. Interesting to note, her first tv ads had her proclaiming she was "the mother of OWS". Response was not favorible. She has since dropped those ads and seems to be distancing herself from OWS.
It's still a long year so we shall have to wait and see. As I said before, Brown is well liked and does not vote strictly along party lines. That has impressed voters who are sick of the party politics. He also is in the state frequently and that includes visits to western Ma.. "Liveshot" Kerry only appears in western Ma if heavy media coverage will be there.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by geeker2

Deb-o Deb Rules!!!

^^^^ Under effects of St. Joseph Rye for Adults.(86 proof...4% Turpentine...3% ethyl alcohol)