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#1
11-02-2011, 07:56 PM
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#2
11-03-2011, 09:59 AM
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Dirt Mile:
Uncle Mo would have been a sensational bet-against at a short-price had he entered this race. People keep talking about "getting a distance" -- for a horse like Uncle Mo - this would have been a SUPER HARD mile to get ... where the Classic -- by BC Classic standerds -- looks to be an extremely easy 10 furlongs this year. The Factor couldn't "get" six furlongs in the Ancient Title - he stopped and was off the board at 2/5 odds. Because The Factor failed to stay six furlongs in Ancient Title -- does that mean he doesn't have enough stamina to get six furlongs? Obviously, he stopped because of early pressure through uncomfortably fast fractions. To Honor and Serve couldn't "get" 6.5 furlongs in the Amsterdam - he faded badly in the stretch and quit at 7/2 odds. Because To Honor And Serve failed to stay 6.5 furlongs in the Amsterdam -- does that mean he doesn't have the stamina to get 6.5 furlongs and should thus cut-back? No -- he stopped because he couldn't handle the uncomfortably fast fractions. He improved leaps and bounds on the stretch out to route distances. Uncle Mo didn't quite "get" a hard 7 furlongs in the King's Bishop ... and this spot would have been a ruthlessly hard to get 8 furlongs for a horse of his style. Six horses in this race have run pace figures open lengths faster than he's ever run in his life. He's not a closing sprinter/miler ... he's proven he will rate kindly when he's on the lead or an outside 2nd -- but he's never proven himself as a closing sprinter. Uncle Mo would have been dressed down had he run in this race. IMO -- a great bet against and a good chance of missing the top 3 at a short price if he didn't bring his good race. I like Wilburn to win this race from well off the pace. Going to try to get Tres Borrachos underneath at a price. He was taken out of his game in the Goodwood and projects for a very good trip. The Turf: The Arc was a sensationally fast race and was run like an American turf race. I'm hoping St. Nicholas Abbey is the Euro most ignored in here. I like him. The American's have no shot in this race -- and I'm negative on the chances of Midday and Sea Moon (winner last out flopped in the Arc -- he was blocked last out, horses with his style aren't the kind that move-up over here) Juvenile: Take Charge Indy (30-1 on the ML) has a total dirt pedigree (AP Indy - Take Charge Lady) ... he's run three outstanding races on synthetic. There could be sharp improvment in him. Union Rags is clearly the best horse in this race -- but from the 10-hole and at a short price in his first two-turn attempt... I'm going to spread against him. His Champagne win was great visually -- but the Frizette was on the same card and produced a faster final time. Mile: I don't like the chances of the 6, 9, 12, and 13 at all. Gio Ponti is perfectly drawn -- 8f is his best distance... but he's a classic hanger who only goes by very late for the win at the expense of Get Stormy denied an early lead, or Mission Approved off of a claiming race last out, or when a hapless plug like Society's Chairmen is the only other one left standing at the 1/8th pole. Gio Ponti to finish 2nd in a textbook back-wheel bet. Classic: Uncle Mo's perfectly drawn. His only pace rival is former plodder Game on Dude... a horse who stalked from 4th in last years 49-flat half-mile Belmont Stakes. To Honor And Serve is ridden by the smart Jose Lezcano -- anyone familar with his riding M. O. knows he's going to aim for that perfect stalk-and-go trip from 3rd. This should be a fairly soft and easy 1 1/4 mile race. Like it was the year former BC Sprint placed Black Tie Affair won this race at Churchill wire-to-wire with a 120 Beyer. Like it was when Velazquez opted to avoid the duel above Roses in May and allow Ghostzapper an unpressured lead. That said -- Flat Out is still the most likely winner of this race. He's run 4 straight sensational races ever since an issue with his foot was addressed. He's in a razor sharp form and you can trust him. Projected favorite Uncle Mo is basically a cripple with just two good one-turn races in a year under his belt. Havre De Grace has failed to fend off Blind Luck twice at 10fs in much smaller fields where her tactical speed edge should have been more of an advantage. So You Think is a turf horse with no dirt pedigree. The 3-year-olds have been much maligned all year and Stay Thirsty has struggled when he's left the NYRA circuit ... he was totally drowned by Uncle Mo with a great trip here last year. He was a total non-factor in the Kentucky Derby. He was nowhere when shipped to Florida for the FLA Derby. It's hard to trust him unleashing a breakthrough race here. I'm going to try and get Headache 3rd or 4th or even 5th if they have a super high five. His alw win over this track was very impressive. He had no shot on the Whitney and Thoro-Graph claims his nice turn move was made on a dead-rail. Also, I thought the Hawthorne Gold Cup Beyer might have been on the low side. They had everyone either getting back to their last number or running far below it -- including some very consistant horses.
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#3
11-03-2011, 02:15 PM
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Hybrid Mode
