D. Wayne Lukas in graded stakes

blackthroatedwind · #1 10-30-2011, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

That's probably the right approach, but I loved his last race so much that I don't know if I can let him go if he's 8-1+. It's not like his brother couldn't handle the main track, and maybe they put him on turf to get him going long as early as possible. Have to look at him a little closer still.

8:1 would be inviting, but I don't buy that he's a dirt horse. However, I can see throwing him in.

Back to the sprint....aren't they all running for second if Jackson Bend decides to go there?

cakes44 · #2 10-30-2011, 06:42 PM

Am I an idiot for thinking Force Freeze has a big shot here?

Agreed on Hamazing Destiny looking to run big though, especially if they can convince Rosario to get back on.

blackthroatedwind · #3 10-30-2011, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

Am I an idiot for thinking Force Freeze has a big shot here?

Why can't he win? He's run two straight good races.

PatCummings · #4 10-30-2011, 07:04 PM

I think Force Freeze is very live. Spoke to his old trainer Doug Watson, and he said the following:

"He struggled mightily with the all weather! I know he won and had some good runs on it, but he always came back sore. It was a body soreness and it was hard to pin down where he was sore. He also bled pretty badly in some last season except for the Jebel Ali Sprint, where he scoped completely clean."

Bottom line - he needed Lasix and dirt.

pweizer · #5 10-30-2011, 07:12 PM

I think they may all be running for second. I just don't see anyone catching Euroears.

Paul

blackthroatedwind · #6 10-30-2011, 07:14 PM

I know the CA clockers are all agog over Euroears, but I don't like him at all. Take a careful look at his Vosburgh. He wasn't keeping up before he was eliminated. Perhaps it was the mud, but I'm dubious.

PatCummings · #7 10-30-2011, 07:23 PM

Ran into a few clockers at CD today who said there is little doubt that horses simply run over top of the surface at SA, it's just rock solid, whereas the CD strip (at least right now) is much deeper and forces the horse to get into the dirt while running...and they seem to think this could make a difference for west-coast prepared horses in the BC. ("make a difference" = not run as well as their west coast form or preps indicate)

I don't really know what to think, just sharing.

cakes44 · #8 10-30-2011, 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Why can't he win? He's run two straight good races.

What kind of odds are we thinking assuming Jackson Bend and Caleb's Posse both go in the dirt mile?

philcski · #9 10-30-2011, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

8:1 would be inviting, but I don't buy that he's a dirt horse. However, I can see throwing him in.

Back to the sprint....aren't they all running for second if Jackson Bend decides to go there?

Cross a line through Trappe Shot's run in the mud at Bel (which was still OK) and he's far and away the best in here. Don't really understand why they're going first preference in the Mile.

Most of all, though, as much as I like him I'm very much against Big Drama in here as the ML favorite. Of those that remain, I don't have a great opinion but I'd love to see the NY bred Giant Ryan win.

VOL JACK · #10 10-31-2011, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Cross a line through Trappe Shot's run in the mud at Bel (which was still OK) and he's far and away the best in here. Don't really understand why they're going first preference in the Mile.

Most of all, though, as much as I like him I'm very much against Big Drama in here as the ML favorite. Of those that remain, I don't have a great opinion but I'd love to see the NY bred Giant Ryan win.

could not agree more.

blackthroatedwind · #11 10-31-2011, 08:58 AM

I think a knee jerk reaction was made right after the Vosburgh to run him in the Mile.

VOL JACK · #12 10-31-2011, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think a knee jerk reaction was made right after the Vosburgh to run him in the Mile.

On the October 1st card at Belmont, closers had NO shot.

RockHardTen1985 · #13 10-31-2011, 11:06 AM

Maybe Im the only one, but I dont love Jackson Bend cutting back again. I agree with Phil about Trappe Shot and I believe Euroears is razor sharp right now. What about Amazombie? With Big Drama being a huge question mark this race could totally collapse.

blackthroatedwind · #14 10-31-2011, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Maybe Im the only one, but I dont love Jackson Bend cutting back again. I agree with Phil about Trappe Shot and I believe Euroears is razor sharp right now. What about Amazombie? With Big Drama being a huge question mark this race could totally collapse.

You agree with Phil about Trappe Shot? OK, then, how does this possibly impact Jackson Bend?

You think the race could collapse, but like Amazombie...and not Jackson Bend?

RockHardTen1985 · #15 10-31-2011, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You agree with Phil about Trappe Shot? OK, then, how does this possibly impact Jackson Bend?

You think the race could collapse, but like Amazombie...and not Jackson Bend?

I don't love Amazombie, I think he has a chance. Wont Amazombie be around 10-1 and Jackson Bend around 5-2? If that's the case I would cover Amazombie. As of now, 5 days out I like Trappe Shot, Euroears and a little Amazombie. Jackson Bend got really good this summer, really good. I respect him and Zito. I guess my problem with him is getting up going 6f against the very best of the division.

blackthroatedwind · #16 10-31-2011, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I don't love Amazombie, I think he has a chance. Wont Amazombie be around 10-1 and Jackson Bend around 5-2? If that's the case I would cover Amazombie. As of now, 5 days out I like Trappe Shot, Euroears and a little Amazombie. Jackson Bend got really good this summer, really good. I respect him and Zito. I guess my problem with him is getting up going 6f against the very best of the division.

It's usually good to have some idea who is running in what races when forming opinions. Then again, that's just me. You clearly work in a much different way.

Sightseek · #17 10-31-2011, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You agree with Phil about Trappe Shot? OK, then, how does this possibly impact Jackson Bend?

You think the race could collapse, but like Amazombie...and not Jackson Bend?

This should be seen as an omen for Nick.

blackthroatedwind · #18 10-31-2011, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

This should be seen as an omen for Nick.

No doubt. If there was any wavering, there shouldn't be now.

VOL JACK · #19 10-31-2011, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

8:1 would be inviting, but I don't buy that he's a dirt horse. However, I can see throwing him in.

Back to the sprint....aren't they all running for second if Jackson Bend decides to go there?

yes.