BC Classic Notes: Gio Ponti (Mile), Await/Dawn (Turf)

[analyizethis]

So 30 days out here's my guess for closing odds in the Classic for this 14 horse field:

Uncle Mo 3 - 1
Havre de Grace 4 - 1
Tizway 5 - 1
Game on Dude 9 - 1
To Honor and Serve 11 -1
Stay Thirsty 11 - 1
Flat Out 12 - 1
Giant Oak 13 - 1
Twirling Candy 15 - 1
So You Think 15 - 1
Ruler on Ice 25 - 1
Ice Box 30 - 1
Awesome Gem 30 - 1

[analyizethis]

Interestingly my 14 horse field only had 13 names. Add Prayer for Relief at 19 -1.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by analyizethis

So 30 days out here's my guess for closing odds in the Classic for this 14 horse field:

Uncle Mo 3 - 1
Havre de Grace 4 - 1
Tizway 5 - 1
Game on Dude 9 - 1
To Honor and Serve 11 -1
Stay Thirsty 11 - 1
Flat Out 12 - 1
Giant Oak 13 - 1
Twirling Candy 15 - 1
So You Think 15 - 1
Ruler on Ice 25 - 1
Ice Box 30 - 1
Awesome Gem 30 - 1

Originally Posted by analyizethis

Interestingly my 14 horse field only had 13 names. Add Prayer for Relief at 19 -1.

Really 12 since you listed Ice Box.

[iamthelurker]

Originally Posted by analyizethis

So 30 days out here's my guess for closing odds in the Classic for this 14 horse field:

Uncle Mo 3 - 1
Havre de Grace 4 - 1
Tizway 5 - 1
Game on Dude 9 - 1
To Honor and Serve 11 -1
Stay Thirsty 11 - 1
Flat Out 12 - 1
Giant Oak 13 - 1
Twirling Candy 15 - 1
So You Think 15 - 1
Ruler on Ice 25 - 1
Ice Box 30 - 1
Awesome Gem 30 - 1

Flat Out at 12-1... Try 5-1.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by analyizethis

So 30 days out here's my guess for closing odds in the Classic for this 14 horse field:

Uncle Mo 3 - 1
Havre de Grace 4 - 1
Tizway 5 - 1
Game on Dude 9 - 1
To Honor and Serve 11 -1
Stay Thirsty 11 - 1
Flat Out 12 - 1
Giant Oak 13 - 1
Twirling Candy 15 - 1
So You Think 15 - 1
Ruler on Ice 25 - 1
Ice Box 30 - 1
Awesome Gem 30 - 1

12-1 on Flat Out? He'd be the overlay of the year and I'd do cartwheels (poorly) in my living room before the race if he is that high.

I think he's going to be 3rd choice at worst assuming all of the names you mention go and I think he'll be shorter odds than Tizway.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I will have to revisit So You Think's pedigree -- only because he was mentioned above that I am referring to him -- but I did not recall seeing dirt influences up close in his pedigree. I saw turf-top, turf-bottom.

I don't think that it matters anyway.

He would add foreign intrigue, but I could not see him impacting this race.

Agree. . . he has no shot in this spot.

[analyizethis]

Having no shot has not stopped Coolmore in the past. Quite frankly they have nothing to lose.

For every Dylan Thomas, Oratorio or tragically George Washington it just takes a Giant's Causeway or Johannesburg to reap the significant stallion fees that make it worth it.

From a handicapping risk/reward point of view given the new surface question it is rarely represents any value.

[my miss storm cat]

Alinghi was a pretty accomplished horse...

[Indian Charlie]

As was Strawberry Road, a vastly underrated race horse.

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Clearly, he would be the most accomplished Aussie horse to race in North America since Phar Lap were he to run at the Breeders' Cup.

That statement probably lacks context since hardly any top-flight Aussie horses run here, though.

(Starcraft, by the way, did not run a bad race in the 2005 Classic at Belmont.)

If Starcraft had run a winning race I would have cashed a massive P4. Took him over St.Liam. Wish I would have l known Dutrow was so confident he bet $100,000 to win.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

If Starcraft had run a winning race I would have cashed a massive P4. Took him over St.Liam. Wish I would have l known Dutrow was so confident he bet $100,000 to win.

I was alive in the Pick 3 and my friend who I went with the Pick 4...

We needed to lose a horse so when we were at the windows STUPIDLY decided it would be Saint Liam.



(We did both think of Sightseek though when he won and had done well enough that day to be happy and shut up I am not redboarding)!

For the So You Think people... you all do realize he runs in the Champion Stakes on Satruday, right?

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

I was alive in the Pick 3 and my friend who I went with the Pick 4...

We needed to lose a horse so when we were at the windows STUPIDLY decided it would be Saint Liam.

I had a British bloodstock agent I met at the hotel talk me into Starcraft
and I changed my tickets.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I will have to revisit So You Think's pedigree -- only because he was mentioned above that I am referring to him -- but I did not recall seeing dirt influences up close in his pedigree. I saw turf-top, turf-bottom.

His broodmare sire, Tights, was a stakes winner on dirt in CA, and was closely related to the brilliiant, but over-hyped miler Furiously as well as the good CA sire Bolger (sire of Sea Cadet).

I thought he was supposed to run in the Cox Plate in Australia. The Champion-Classic double wheeling back from the Arc seems like a tall order, especially after making hard work of it for the majority of his campaign this year.