Say what you want about Beyer Speed Figures....

[Calzone Lord]

Here's a textbook example of the usefulness of Beyer Figures finding value ... this was a case where a horse who was truly 'the most likely winner' in the entire field on paper went off at 15/1.

Today's 2nd race at PID.




http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20110816&RN=2


#6 Sunshine Bernie is 6-for-57 lifetime -- but 2-for-2 lifetime on synthetic -- and more importantly 2-for-2 lifetime at PID.

So -- Sunshine Bernie is 2-for-2 here (wins at 10/1 and 3/1) and just 4-for-55 everywhere else.

The Winning Beyer Par for 16K claimers at PID is 78. No horse in the field had run better than a 77 last time out. So, obviously, we know it's going to take something in the 77-to-78 range to win this.

Sunshine Bernie exceeded par at PID in both races -- running an 82 and 79. But both races occured in the year 2009.

He made 20 total starts in 2009 -- in his 18 away from PID he never ran a figure better than 74. In his two at PID he ran 79 and 82. So, obviously, he loves PID.

Now, the important part, has Sunshine Bernie improved or regressed since 2009 when he ran those two races?

2009: 3 figures before PID races - 69, 68, 69 -- 3 figures after his two PID races 71, 43, 74

2011: Last 3 figures before todays race: 73, 80, 70


It's crystal clear that this horse is better in 2011 -- than in 2009 when he ran those two winning races that exceeded winning par in his only two tries.

Cold exacta was $141.40 -- Sunshine Bernie is now 3-for-3 here (wins at 10/1, 3/1, and 15/1) and 4-for-55 everywhere else.