Say what you want about Beyer Speed Figures....

justindew · #1 08-13-2011, 03:53 PM

...but the 30-1 winner of the 7th at Arlington had a 6-point last out Beyer edge.

#2 08-13-2011, 04:04 PM

Thanks for the heads up.

justindew · #3 08-13-2011, 04:06 PM

Hey, I've never seen a horse with an edge that large win at those odds.

Maybe you have.

pointman · #4 08-13-2011, 04:09 PM

On synthetic, in a turf race . . . .

The horse was not impossible though.

justindew · #5 08-13-2011, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

On synthetic, in a turf race . . . .

The horse was not impossible though.

I see you changed your post from "dirt" to "synthetic". Nice self-catch.

#6 08-13-2011, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Hey, I've never seen a horse with an edge that large win at those odds.

Maybe you have.

It was an overlay for sure. I hope you scored big.

ninetoone · #7 08-13-2011, 06:35 PM

War Emblem in the Derby I believe had a 6 or 7 last out Beyer edge...that was another good one! (I didn't have it)

MISTERGEE · #8 08-13-2011, 06:47 PM

War Emblem and now this, gosh they are really coming back to back

ninetoone · #9 08-13-2011, 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

War Emblem and now this, gosh they are really coming back to back

haha...yes, this could be a pattern emerging.

Split Rock · #10 08-13-2011, 08:28 PM

Yea....if you give me a moment, I can find 10 angles to support every winner. Including, I threw a dart and it landed on the 2

MISTERGEE · #11 08-13-2011, 09:15 PM

that is about the only way i could have picked that horse is with a dart, I believe i did notice that the whole field of 10 or 12 were only seperated by about 2 lengths at the finish

GPK · #12 08-13-2011, 09:51 PM

If you key off her Appalachian race, there is really no other horse in the race that had run anything close to that. She was marooned on the far outside, raced 5 wide, yet still managed to get within 6.5 lengths of the best turf filly in America.

pba1817 · #13 08-13-2011, 10:48 PM

2009 BC mile Furthest Land was 20-1, he had a previous BSF that te rest of field was nowhere near...

Kasept · #14 08-14-2011, 06:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Split Rock

Yea....if you give me a moment, I can find 10 angles to support every winner. Including, I threw a dart and it landed on the 2

Don't worry, you're making your dart throwing plenty evident..

As it is, you're about three seconds from needing to find somewhere else to advertise your prowess, so I'd keep attempts to inhibit post-race analysis to a minimum. Unlike you, a lot of people here are interested in learning how to identify betting opportunities, and figuring out why $60 horses got missed is pretty invaluable.

Kasept · #15 08-14-2011, 06:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pba1817

2009 BC mile Furthest Land was 20-1, he had a previous BSF that te rest of field was nowhere near...

That's maybe the best recent big race example.

Kasept · #16 08-14-2011, 06:57 AM

I didn't get a bet down, but to Justin's point, Santina Dond was not a difficult filly to include or even key off her Thoro-Graph figs as well. She was a crazy price considering she had gotten back to her top (7.5) last time, and was 3rd/4th 'fastest' among Happy Choice (6.5), Notassharpasuthink (6.75) and Holidaysatthefarm (7.5).

I think what made her float to the 30-1 was how much speed was signed on and her appearance as perhaps the cheapest looking of the speeds. To her credit, she was only beaten 6+ lengths by Winter Memories in April (as I see Kev pointed out). I'd like to hear the story of how she went from Keeneland yearling to Poland.

Cannon Shell · #17 08-14-2011, 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

I'd like to hear the story of how she went from Keeneland yearling to Poland.

Poland is the new Dubai. As soon as Pat starts a RacenightKrakow.com website they will be there. Of course they have the advantage of not handicapping themselves with synthetic surfaces AND the Keilbasa stand at Warsaw Park is off the charts

Calzone Lord · #18 08-14-2011, 09:12 AM

It's not hard to figure out why the horse was 30/1 --- it was 4th in a starter alw race two-starts back -- and didn't win the day it got the big figure last out.

I'm being super Captain Obvious with this point --- but, whenever a "Top last out fig" horse wins and pays more than 20/1 ... they are typically coming off a big new top and have "cheap" form on the go-back.

Dancing In Silks won the Breeders Cup Sprint less than two years ago at 25/1 as the top Beyer horse coming out of a nose win in a super-fast Cal Cup race.

Obviously War Emblem and Charismatic both won the Kentucky Derby at a huge price as "top last out Beyer" horses -- I think Charismatic was 30/1 ... both of them had very "cheap" form prior to their freakish performances that came from out of nowhere in the Ill Derby (War Emblem's case) and Lexington Stakes (Charismatic's case)

Bigsmc · #19 08-14-2011, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

I I'd like to hear the story of how she went from Keeneland yearling to Poland.

Given the names of the connections, Vladamir Kazakov owns and Gennadi Dorochenko trains, I can connect the dots from Lexington to Poland.

Calzone Lord · #20 08-14-2011, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Given the names of the connections, Vladamir Kazakov owns and Gennadi Dorochenko trains, I can connect the dots from Lexington to Poland.

I was joking with someone a few months ago -- there was a card at Mountaineer Park that had 3 different imports from Poland racing on it.