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#17
08-14-2011, 10:12 AM
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It's not hard to figure out why the horse was 30/1 --- it was 4th in a starter alw race two-starts back -- and didn't win the day it got the big figure last out.
I'm being super Captain Obvious with this point --- but, whenever a "Top last out fig" horse wins and pays more than 20/1 ... they are typically coming off a big new top and have "cheap" form on the go-back. Dancing In Silks won the Breeders Cup Sprint less than two years ago at 25/1 as the top Beyer horse coming out of a nose win in a super-fast Cal Cup race. Obviously War Emblem and Charismatic both won the Kentucky Derby at a huge price as "top last out Beyer" horses -- I think Charismatic was 30/1 ... both of them had very "cheap" form prior to their freakish performances that came from out of nowhere in the Ill Derby (War Emblem's case) and Lexington Stakes (Charismatic's case) 
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