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#1
08-13-2011, 10:15 PM
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that is about the only way i could have picked that horse is with a dart, I believe i did notice that the whole field of 10 or 12 were only seperated by about 2 lengths at the finish
__________________
" I may leave here empty handed, but you aren't going anywhere " 
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#2
08-13-2011, 10:51 PM
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If you key off her Appalachian race, there is really no other horse in the race that had run anything close to that. She was marooned on the far outside, raced 5 wide, yet still managed to get within 6.5 lengths of the best turf filly in America.
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#4
08-14-2011, 07:03 AM
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 That's maybe the best recent big race example.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
08-14-2011, 07:57 AM
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I didn't get a bet down, but to Justin's point, Santina Dond was not a difficult filly to include or even key off her Thoro-Graph figs as well. She was a crazy price considering she had gotten back to her top (7.5) last time, and was 3rd/4th 'fastest' among Happy Choice (6.5), Notassharpasuthink (6.75) and Holidaysatthefarm (7.5).
I think what made her float to the 30-1 was how much speed was signed on and her appearance as perhaps the cheapest looking of the speeds. To her credit, she was only beaten 6+ lengths by Winter Memories in April (as I see Kev pointed out). I'd like to hear the story of how she went from Keeneland yearling to Poland.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
08-14-2011, 08:49 AM
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#7
08-14-2011, 10:12 AM
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It's not hard to figure out why the horse was 30/1 --- it was 4th in a starter alw race two-starts back -- and didn't win the day it got the big figure last out.
I'm being super Captain Obvious with this point --- but, whenever a "Top last out fig" horse wins and pays more than 20/1 ... they are typically coming off a big new top and have "cheap" form on the go-back. Dancing In Silks won the Breeders Cup Sprint less than two years ago at 25/1 as the top Beyer horse coming out of a nose win in a super-fast Cal Cup race. Obviously War Emblem and Charismatic both won the Kentucky Derby at a huge price as "top last out Beyer" horses -- I think Charismatic was 30/1 ... both of them had very "cheap" form prior to their freakish performances that came from out of nowhere in the Ill Derby (War Emblem's case) and Lexington Stakes (Charismatic's case)
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#8
08-14-2011, 10:14 AM
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#9
08-14-2011, 10:16 AM
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#10
08-14-2011, 10:57 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#11
08-15-2011, 08:02 PM
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__________________
" I may leave here empty handed, but you aren't going anywhere "
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