Republican Debate tonight

[hi_im_god]

the state of the economy in august 2012 will have a lot more influence on the results of the election than anything else that occurs between now and then.

obama has the advantage of no intra-party challenge which means he's already tacking to the center while all the republican candidates have to tack right toward their motivated primary voters in iowa and new hampshire. no republican is getting the nomination without winning one of those.

but whomever the republican nominee is no ones going to care what nutty thing they said in june 2011 if the economy's still perceived to be in the tank.

if bachman wins iowa (a reasonable possibility) i think you'll see the g.o.p. establishment coalesce around romney. or whomever finishes a good second there.

bachman isn't electable in a depression and they know it. but pretty much any white male could beat obama if august 2012 doesn't look much better than june 2011.