The "It's way too early to do this so let's do it anyway!" prediction game thread

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Expand on why you think Smarty Jones was more talented than Ghostzapper.

Not that this proves anything but it goes along with what I posted earlier to answer your question:

From the DRF on 5/18/04, Andy Beyer:

It was difficult to assess Smarty Jones after his triumph at Churchill Downs because his running time was unimpressive and the sloppy, speed-favoring track may have aided him. There were no such ambiguities last Saturday at Pimlico, and people who can recognize an exceptional Thoroughbred knew they had seen the real thing. Patrick Biancone, who has trained high-class horses on three continents, hailed Smarty Jones as "a great champion." Veteran jockey Gary Stevens said, "That's as good as any horse I've ever seen," and mentioned the Preakness winner in the same breath as Secretariat.
Runaway victories can sometimes be deceptive, but objective evidence verified the quality of Smarty Jones's performance. On the day before the Preakness, some of the best older horses in the country contested the Pimlico Special, and the high-class California invader Southern Image won it by running 1 3/16 miles in 1:55.89. The Pimlico racing surface, which has been slower lately than in previous years, was virtually identical the next day, when Smarty Jones sped the same distance in 1:55.59. It is extraordinary for a young 3-year-old to run faster than top-class older horses.

His effort earned him a tie for the second-best Beyer Speed Figure in a Triple Crown race since we began publishing these ratings in 1987. Easy Goer recorded a figure of 122 in the 1989 Belmont Stakes. Summer Squall and Silver Charm got ratings of 118 in the Preaknesses of 1990 and 1997, respectively. Smarty Jones's 118 puts him into some illustrious company.______________________________

From the DRF on 5/19/04, Sean Clancy:

"Sometimes you can do things to a horse to make yourself a length better," Smith said after finishing fourth in the Preakness. "But he's in a league of his own. He might be another Secretariat. I ain't kidding you.""My horse ran the way I expected, and I thought that might be good enough to beat Smarty Jones. Boy, was I wrong," Stevens said after finishing second. "I think I just witnessed a horse that's going to go down in history as one of the best we've ever seen.""You don't beat him, not unless he beats himself," Stevens said. "He won't get beat unless the wheels come off, and I hope they don't come off for a long time."

"He's got all weapons," Smith said. "He handles any track. You can grab a hold of him, take him back, put him on the lead. He can get knocked around. Nothing fazes him."

"So far he hasn't given a stride - that's what makes him a freak," Desormeaux said. "When he went, I tried to go with him, and he just left me. He's like the Lakers - the only thing that can beat him is himself."

"I got goose bumps at the eighth pole," Stevens said. "I thought, 'I have never seen this in my life.' It's going to be great for the sport. We needed this, and it's great people with the horse."

"Sometimes it looks like Stewart's riding him, but it's like he's just pedaling along next to you, like, 'Okay, I'm here.' Like it's no big deal," Smith said. "When we went around the turn, I look over and he's got both ears forward like he's out for a Sunday stroll."

"I got to see him in full color today," Desormeaux said. "He's like Secretariat. He runs because we put him in the starting gate and opened the doors. Now to do the next, it takes a total freak of nature. And he looks like he can do it."
___________________________________

From the DRF on 5/20/04, David Grening:

Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel, who stopped Funny Cide's 2003 Triple Crown bid in the Belmont Stakes with Empire Maker, says he believes Smarty Jones can be mentioned in the same sentence as racing legends Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Spectacular Bid.

"The way he looks right now, he's got an edge on all of them," Frankel said Thursday morning. "He runs on all kinds of tracks, he can make his own race. If somebody wants to go to the lead, he can sit. If nobody wants to go, he can go to the lead. The only thing is if he stays together. If they can get five or six more races out of him, he can be an all-timer, one of the greats."Smarty Jones has won his first eight starts, including the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and is trying to become the first 3-year-old to go through the Triple Crown undefeated since Seattle Slew in 1977.

"Seattle Slew used to get hot if somebody got too close to him," Frankel said. "This colt, nothing bothers him. Secretariat, he didn't like an off track, he got beat a couple of times on an off track. The horse he reminds me the most of is Spectacular Bid, because Spectacular Bid was like that: he'd rate, he'd go to the lead, he'd handle any surface."_________________________________

From the DRF on 5/21/04, Michael Hammersly:

The comparison I've been hearing most frequently is Smarty Jones to Affirmed. That's heady praise, and like Affirmed, Smarty has shown an ability to go whenever his rider desires. That push-button, step-on-the-gas-and-get-thrown-back-in-your-seat ability is absolutely lethal.

But I'm inclined to compare Smarty to Spectacular Bid - and if you know me, you know that's saying something.

I believe Spectacular Bid was the best, most perfect horse we've ever seen. He had a wonderful machine-like precision. And the one thing Smarty does like Bid did is bury foes. Affirmed would win, but you had the feeling he was trying to be funny, like the kid playing tag who is much faster than everyone else but stays just out of their reach, smirking. Spectacular Bid wasn't like that. I felt he didn't want to win, he wanted to bury rivals. He was like Tiger Woods was in 2000 - why win by a shot when you can win by 10? Smarty has shown that same killer instinct.

[RolloTomasi]

Similar effusive praise was heaped onto Ghostzapper during his career as well.

Haskin compared him to Forego, Dr. Fager, and Spectacular Bid in the span of one paragraph.

Frankel said Ghostzapper could win at a mile and a half on turf.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Similar effusive praise was heaped onto Ghostzapper during his career as well.

Haskin compared him to Forego, Dr. Fager, and Spectacular Bid in the span of one paragraph.

Frankel said Ghostzapper could win at a mile and a half on turf.

I thought GZ could do that too, as well as win the BC Sprint. Just because I thought Smarty was slightly better does not mean that I think GZ was your run of the mill $25k claimer. I thought both were brilliant.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I thought GZ could do that too, as well as win the BC Sprint. Just because I thought Smarty was slightly better does not mean that I think GZ was your run of the mill $25k claimer. I thought both were brilliant.

I realize this is a different question than asking who should have won HOY but.... hypothetically, if a healthy and ready Smarty Jones had been entered in the '04 Woodward and BCC who do you really think would have won those races?
My guess is the same horse that won them in real life.

[iamthelurker]

Gary Stevens calling a horse one of the greatest ever... thats never happened before.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I realize this is a different question than asking who should have won HOY but.... hypothetically, if a healthy and ready Smarty Jones had been entered in the '04 Woodward and BCC who do you really think would have won those races?
My guess is the same horse that won them in real life.

I'd probably lean towards a split. The Woodward wasn't a really fast race. If I remember correctly, it was only given a 114 Beyer and that's a figure that the 3yo Smarty had already gone past. I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that Smarty could have improved as the year went on and his trainer had been able to train him the way he wanted to and picked out the races he wanted to instead of having to be forced into a schedule by the TC series. The weight break would have been nice too.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Veteran jockey Gary Stevens said, "That's as good as any horse I've ever seen," and mentioned the Preakness winner in the same breath as Secretariat.

Who cares? Stevens called Rock Hard Ten the best horse he ever rode. His opinion is worthless.

His effort earned him a tie for the second-best Beyer Speed Figure in a Triple Crown race since we began publishing these ratings in 1987. Easy Goer recorded a figure of 122 in the 1989 Belmont Stakes. Summer Squall and Silver Charm got ratings of 118 in the Preaknesses of 1990 and 1997, respectively. Smarty Jones's 118 puts him into some illustrious company.

It was unquestionably a great performance. However, it was only a slightly better performance than the Preakness wins turned in by Bernardini and Funny Cide.

Smith said after finishing fourth in the Preakness. "But he's in a league of his own. He might be another Secretariat. I ain't kidding you."

Smith said Zenyatta was better than Holy Bull, Cigar, Skip Away, and all of the other males he rode. His opinion is worthless. And Smarty Jones wasn't exactly another Secretariat either.

Stevens said after finishing second. "I think I just witnessed a horse that's going to go down in history as one of the best we've ever seen."

If he repeated that performance over and over, yes. He didn't.

"I got goose bumps at the eighth pole," Stevens said. "I thought, 'I have never seen this in my life.'

I guess if he really believed that Rock Hard Ten was better than horses like Silver Charm and Gentleman....

"I got to see him in full color today," Desormeaux said. "He's like Secretariat.

Yes, both are chestnuts. Very good, Kent.

Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel, who stopped Funny Cide's 2003 Triple Crown bid in the Belmont Stakes with Empire Maker, says he believes Smarty Jones can be mentioned in the same sentence as racing legends Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Spectacular Bid.

"The way he looks right now, he's got an edge on all of them," Frankel said Thursday morning. "He runs on all kinds of tracks, he can make his own race. If somebody wants to go to the lead, he can sit. If nobody wants to go, he can go to the lead. The only thing is if he stays together. If they can get five or six more races out of him, he can be an all-timer, one of the greats."

"the way he looks right now, he's got an edge on all of them" ... yeah, because they've all been out of training for about 25 years or more.

I don't agree that Smarty Jones was as tactical as Frankel is making him out to sound. You certainly could not get away with taking him back the way you always could with a Spectacular Bid.

"Seattle Slew used to get hot if somebody got too close to him," Frankel said. "This colt, nothing bothers him. Secretariat, he didn't like an off track, he got beat a couple of times on an off track. The horse he reminds me the most of is Spectacular Bid, because Spectacular Bid was like that: he'd rate, he'd go to the lead, he'd handle any surface."

Smarty Jones could rate the same way a Holy Bull type of horse could rate. That's very different from taking back and still being able to run huge like Spectacular Bid could. Spectacular Bid won a ruthlessly fast KY Derby from 10 lengths off the early pace. When Spectacular Bid was defeated by a year older and fresher Affirmed at 12 furlongs - he managed to rate kindly while taken back behind fractions of 25 and 49 - and still ran a 127 Beyer in defeat.

But I'm inclined to compare Smarty to Spectacular Bid - and if you know me, you know that's saying something.

Great. Try comparing them on the basis of body of work on the racetrack. It's like trying to compare Brandon Marshall to Jerry Rice.

[Port Conway Lane]

Smarty Jones compares more favorably with Spend A Buck. It seems odd to me that Frankel compared him to the Bid since he trained the only older male who has come remotely close to comparison in 30 years.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

It seems odd to me that Frankel compared him to the Bid since he trained the only older male who has come remotely close to comparison in 30 years.

That quote of Frankel's was just days after his Preakness win. It's very easy for a lot of people to get swept up in the excitement of a horse with an undefeated record coming off of such a superb recent performance. I would suspect he was optimistic the horse would hold that form in future races by the "how he looks now" comment.

Also, I believe Ghostzapper had yet to even attempt a route race at the time of that quote. Ghostzapper had all very impressive and super fast races from the Vosburgh of his 3yo season on - but even comparing him and SB as just older males - he didn't travel as much and campaign as hard.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

That quote of Frankel's was just days after his Preakness win. It's very easy for a lot of people to get swept up in the excitement of a horse with an undefeated record coming off of such a superb recent performance. I would suspect he was optimistic the horse would hold that form in future races by the "how he looks now" comment.

Also, I believe Ghostzapper had yet to even attempt a route race at the time of that quote. Ghostzapper had all very impressive and super fast races from the Vosburgh of his 3yo season on - but even comparing him and SB as just older males - he didn't travel as much and campaign as hard.

I forgot that GZ had not yet completed his 4yo season at that time.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

That quote of Frankel's was just days after his Preakness win. It's very easy for a lot of people to get swept up in the excitement of a horse with an undefeated record coming off of such a superb recent performance. I would suspect he was optimistic the horse would hold that form in future races by the "how he looks now" comment.

Also, I believe Ghostzapper had yet to even attempt a route race at the time of that quote. Ghostzapper had all very impressive and super fast races from the Vosburgh of his 3yo season on - but even comparing him and SB as just older males - he didn't travel as much and campaign as hard.

The thing is that the question wasn't what made me think that Smarty was as good or better than Bid or Secretariat but what made me think he was more talented than GZ. As I said when I posted those things, I wasn't using them as proof that he was but merely as examples of how there were quite a few people that were putting him in the same sentences with all-time greats so maybe it wasn't too far out in left field to think he was pretty damn good.

[Calzone Lord]

Undefeated horses have a mystique about them.

And when one of them wins a race with a genuinely great performance - it's very easy to get swept up in the excitement of it and the praise can get out of control.

A lot of flowery stuff was certainly also said about a horse like Candy Ride after his Pacific Classic win - or Discreet Cat after his Cigar Mile.

Ghostzapper was certainly the best older horse of the last 10 years. Smarty Jones is in the discussion (with horses like Tiznow, Point Given, Bernardini, and maybe Curlin) as best 3yo over that time frame.

SJ VS GZ is a classic 3yo vs older comparison - and if they met on the track - the older Ghostzapper would almost certainly win that match-up no matter how it plays out from a scenerio standpoint.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Undefeated horses have a mystique about them.

And when one of them wins a race with a genuinely great performance - it's very easy to get swept up in the excitement of it and the praise can get out of control.

A lot of flowery stuff was certainly also said about a horse like Candy Ride after his Pacific Classic win - or Discreet Cat after his Cigar Mile.

Ghostzapper was certainly the best older horse of the last 10 years. Smarty Jones is in the discussion (with horses like Tiznow, Point Given, Bernardini, and maybe Curlin) as best 3yo over that time frame.

You know, and I know you know, that Candy Ride at his best would have beaten GZ at his best, going 10f on dirt. Turf most likely as well.

Tiznow was a three year old eleven years ago.

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

SJ VS GZ is a classic 3yo vs older comparison - and if they met on the track - the older Ghostzapper would almost certainly win that match-up no matter how it plays out from a scenerio standpoint.

4yo GZ would have whooped on SJ, that much is for sure.