Derby draw

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Is this the first Derby draw you've seen? For quite a few years, ESPN did it five horses at a time. I thought it was significantly more painless now than it was then.

Pat I need an update on Sweet Ducky's condition stat.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Pat I need an update on Sweet Ducky's condition stat.

I'll take that as a "yes, this is the first Derby draw I've watched on television."

[slotdirt]

Did I hear Battaglia say Twice the Appeal is 20-1 strictly because Borel is on him? Does that seem irresponsible to anybody else?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Did I hear Battaglia say Twice the Appeal is 20-1 strictly because Borel is on him? Does that seem irresponsible to anybody else?

No. You don't think the horse is going to take money simply because Borel is on him?

[slotdirt]

Of course he is, but at 50-1, I would consider playing the horse in some form or fashion even with the Borel bump. But at 20-1, what's the point? Just seems odd to hear an oddsmaker say he took a horse from 50-1 to 20-1 strictly because of a jockey.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Of course he is, but at 50-1, I would consider playing the horse in some form or fashion even with the Borel bump. But at 20-1, what's the point? Just seems odd to hear an oddsmaker say he took a horse from 50-1 to 20-1 strictly because of a jockey.

I don't really think he would have been 50-1 on the ML with a jockey like Dominguez or Rosario riding him. He probably would have been 30-1 at that point.

Surely Twice the Appeal with a different (but competent rider) would have to be shorter on the ML than the two 50-1 shots he made (Decisive Moment, Watch Me Go), right?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I don't really think he would have been 50-1 on the ML with a jockey like Dominguez or Rosario riding him. He probably would have been 30-1 at that point.

Surely Twice the Appeal with a different (but competent rider) would have to be shorter on the ML than the two 50-1 shots he made (Decisive Moment, Watch Me Go), right?

For what it's worth, Twice the Appeal looked very good physically today schooling in the paddock. I was with Jeff Bonde during the session, and he's pleased with how the colt is finishing up toward race day.

Smiling Tiger was schooling too. He's enormous and imposing.

[somerfrost]

Battaglia's job in posting the ML is to estimate the public's view, not give his opinion of a given horse's chances. The fact that Borel is on the horse will undoubtedly bring his odds down.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Did I hear Battaglia say Twice the Appeal is 20-1 strictly because Borel is on him? Does that seem irresponsible to anybody else?

Irresponsible?
Absolutely not.
He is almost surely right in guessing that the horse will take a ton more money simply because of the jockey.

[slotdirt]

It's fine, I just hate seeing a horse who could be a juicy longshot at 20-1 on the m/l rather than the number he probably deserved.

[randallscott35]

In this group Twice the Appeal can hit the board.

[Sightseek]

There was an article in the DRF on Battaglia's ML vs. Watchmaker's.

Great post for Comma to the Top to come out running.