4/23 (GP): Mandatory Pay Rainbow 6/Discussion

[GPK]

Notonthesamepage looks like a nice play against in the 8th. I like the 2,3 and 8 in that race, especially the 8. Walder is just ridiculous on the cut back.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

if it lasts until saturday. going overboard with thousand dollar tickets is not a way to go. do that tommorrow. the chances of 1 person hitting that day are going to be slim. as someone mentioned groups will have almost every combo covered...the betting sites are trying to have huge pools of people involved...it might actually pay squat....try for the big ticket tommorrow(friday)......if no one hits play a few bucks saturday...everyone and their brother will be playing a million combos saturday....buy mega million tickets your better off. i laugh people are saying its tough sequence..........no ****, i've been chasing it for weeks....what makes saturday any different other than a zillion people will probably hit it. tommorrow is the day to take one last stab.

This is possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Do I really need to explain to you why it's possibly the best bet you could make all YEAR on Saturday? Versus one of the worst on Friday?

[hockey2315]

GP R7 - A: 5,10 B: 6,8,11 C: 2,12
[AE - #s 13 + 14 = Bs?]
GP R8 - A: 2,7,9 B: 3,4 C: 8,12
[AE - #13 A or B, 14 + 15 C, 16 B]
GP R9 - A: 7,9,10 B: 2,6 C: 3,4
GP R10 - A: 8,9,10 B: 2,6 C: 3,4
[AE - #13 C]
GP R11 - A: 8,12 B: 3,5 C: 1,2,11
GP R12 - A: 9,10 C: 1,6,12

[jms62]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Do I really need to explain to you why it's possibly the best bet you could make all YEAR on Saturday? Versus one of the worst on Friday?

I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot poll. If twin spires is actually putting together a 100k ticket what are the chances they miss? I say this pays less than 20 k.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Do I really need to explain to you why it's possibly the best bet you could make all YEAR on Saturday? Versus one of the worst on Friday?

how? if someone hits (alone) today they will get it all. the split may even be higher today, if its not hit..... i've already hit it twice on days where other people have hit(no jackpot) . thats the money i'm using to play today. believe me i know they are giving the whole pool no matter what....but if you spend 1000 dollars chasing it and its a fairly chalky day..oh, i forgot you guys are the only ones doing that......not....you might get your money back .............maybe........you will need to get multiple 50-1 shots or higher home..... and every "gold rush" fool will be tossing in covering every logical horse and then some.....but if you want to follow the sheep over the cliff....be my guest. it all sounds great until you are sharing it with thousands of other live tickets....are you the one that said "tough sequence". yeah, thats brilliance seeing that it has not been done in weeks.....chances are many more people will hit it tommorrow .......its been that way for weeks now(no jackpot). GO FOR IT TODAY. people never get pari mutuel betting....the more people have it ,....the less you get.....that simple. friday could be a block buster life changing hit,,,,,,saturday most likely will be a treasure hunt gimmick......with thousands splitting the pot. the saying is true here...the bandwagon and one is born every minute. don't listen to me...you won't anyway....sit there and do the math. what will it require to get that jackpot tommorrow?????? pretty much a miracle. i've been chasing it to get the whole thing...i've already shared the "booby" prize twice. please tell me how its a better bet when half the world might cash on it unless some really, really freaky horses win multiple races??????? especially if one were to put a thousand in ? i hope someone hits today....real dumb bet.....lol...not that i won't try tommorrow but so will half the world.

[GPK]

5,6,10/
2,3,8/
2,3,4,7,10/
2,10/
1,5,12/
2,9

[philcski]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

how? if someone hits (alone) today they will get it all. the split may even be higher today, if its not hit..... i've already hit it twice on days where other people have hit(no jackpot) . thats the money i'm using to play today. believe me i know they are giving the whole pool no matter what....but if you spend 1000 dollars chasing it and its a fairly chalky day..oh, i forgot you guys are the only ones doing that......not....you might get your money back .............maybe........you will need to get multiple 50-1 shots or higher home..... and every "gold rush" fool will be tossing in covering every logical horse and then some.....but if you want to follow the sheep over the cliff....be my guest. it all sounds great until you are sharing it with thousands of other live tickets....are you the one that said "tough sequence". yeah, thats brilliance seeing that it has not been done in weeks.....chances are many more people will hit it tommorrow .......its been that way for weeks now(no jackpot). GO FOR IT TODAY. people never get pari mutuel betting....the more people have it ,....the less you get.....that simple. friday could be a block buster life changing hit,,,,,,saturday most likely will be a treasure hunt gimmick......with thousands splitting the pot. the saying is true here...the bandwagon and one is born every minute. don't listen to me...you won't anyway....sit there and do the math. what will it require to get that jackpot tommorrow?????? pretty much a miracle. i've been chasing it to get the whole thing...i've already shared the "booby" prize twice. please tell me how its a better bet when half the world might cash on it unless some really, really freaky horses win multiple races??????? especially if one were to put a thousand in ? i hope someone hits today....real dumb bet.....lol...not that i won't try tommorrow but so will half the world.

Because you WON'T be just getting your money back, even if it chalks out.

The takeout is 20%. So if there's $4 million bet in tomorrow, and $1.5 million in the carryover, there will be a $700k overlay on the payout- so you're playing with a ~20% bonus on the payoff, and that's just assuming the betting distribution will be "normal". Like you said, there will be tons of people playing even the most extreme combos (with Twinspires putting in $100k alone, they will have to spread extremely wide by necessity.) The chances of having a lone winning ticket tomorrow are virtually none. That is no longer the objective since the distribution is mandatory. It's taking advantage of the huge money already in the pool to hit a reasonable combo with a 20-25% bonus in the payoff. If that's not good enough for you, by all means waste your money today chasing absurd horses trying for the whole pool. Good luck.

[robfla]

I read somewhere that Gulfstream should "buy" the ticket today, to ensure a carry for tomorrow...Local papers are estimating 5 million tomorrow.

Tomorrow, If these field sizes hold, there will be 2,488,320 combinations, requiring an investment of $248,832 to cover every possibility.

http://blogs.trb.com/entertainment/n...grow_to_5.html

[trackrat59]

I'm thinking that the best thing to do is run a few tix with a good number of shots and hope for the best. Then, go play another track and not worry about it.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by philcski

Because you WON'T be just getting your money back, even if it chalks out.

The takeout is 20%. So if there's $4 million bet in tomorrow, and $1.5 million in the carryover, there will be a $700k overlay on the payout- so you're playing with a ~20% bonus on the payoff, and that's just assuming the betting distribution will be "normal". Like you said, there will be tons of people playing even the most extreme combos (with Twinspires putting in $100k alone, they will have to spread extremely wide by necessity.) The chances of having a lone winning ticket tomorrow are virtually none. That is no longer the objective since the distribution is mandatory. It's taking advantage of the huge money already in the pool to hit a reasonable combo with a 20-25% bonus in the payoff. If that's not good enough for you, by all means waste your money today chasing absurd horses trying for the whole pool. Good luck.

Phil, do you know who you're talking to?! He "pretty much makes [his] living doing this."

[pointman]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Phil, do you know who you're talking to?! He "pretty much makes [his] living doing this."

Don't forget about all the winners he gives out after the races have been run. He will post the winning ticket on Sunday.

[lemoncrush]

I agree...his logic makes no sense.

Hey, I'm putting together a $40 ticket for a dime, and then not just enjoy it and not worry too much about it.

The fun for tomorrow is you can invest a small amount of money, and if you hit it, it will be like hitting a nice pk 4. Playing Friday is almost pointless unless you have some serious longshots that you love.

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In related news, Sunday is Easter.

Is JC coming back to ride on Sunday?

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

2/8/10/11
8/9
6/7/8/9
2/4/6/8
3/5/11
5/9/10

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Phil, do you know who you're talking to?! He "pretty much makes [his] living doing this."

I pretty much make my living doing nothing! Pays well!

Paid pretty well today considering there was two odds-on and one other favorite selection in the sequence.

Some guy sitting by me at Keeneland got knocked out in the 2nd leg and won the 3rd and 4th, then starts getting excited, "I can still get 5 of 6!" I said to him "Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but they don't pay 5 of 6". These are the guys we are playing against tomorrow- definitely guys that make their living at it.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by philcski

I pretty much make my living doing nothing! Pays well!

Paid pretty well today considering there was two odds-on and one other favorite selection in the sequence.

Some guy sitting by me at Keeneland got knocked out in the 2nd leg and won the 3rd and 4th, then starts getting excited, "I can still get 5 of 6!" I said to him "Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but they don't pay 5 of 6". These are the guys we are playing against tomorrow- definitely guys that make their living at it.

I wanna be like you when I grow up.


No short jokes needed...

[knickslions2]

.10 pick 6

6,10
3,8,9
3,5,9,10
2,6,9
2,12
1,5,6,9,10

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Do I really need to explain to you why it's possibly the best bet you could make all YEAR on Saturday? Versus one of the worst on Friday?

I don't think that was fair.....I mean the whole post was one of the dumbest things anyone has ever written.....give credit where credit is due....don't just narrow his idiocy down to that one sentence. He earned far less respect than that!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Do I really need to explain to you why it's possibly the best bet you could make all YEAR on Saturday? Versus one of the worst on Friday?

My brain went numb reading what he wrote. It's hard to believe there are people that clueless.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by philcski

Because you WON'T be just getting your money back, even if it chalks out.

The takeout is 20%. So if there's $4 million bet in tomorrow, and $1.5 million in the carryover, there will be a $700k overlay on the payout- so you're playing with a ~20% bonus on the payoff, and that's just assuming the betting distribution will be "normal". Like you said, there will be tons of people playing even the most extreme combos (with Twinspires putting in $100k alone, they will have to spread extremely wide by necessity.) The chances of having a lone winning ticket tomorrow are virtually none. That is no longer the objective since the distribution is mandatory. It's taking advantage of the huge money already in the pool to hit a reasonable combo with a 20-25% bonus in the payoff. If that's not good enough for you, by all means waste your money today chasing absurd horses trying for the whole pool. Good luck.

you were right....it sort of blew up in my face....but they scracthed alot of horses yesterday(2 or 3 in almost every race)...which made hitting it almost impossible...you have to use some ridiculous horses if you expect to hit it. i had the 11 in the 9th yesterday (withches orchard) at 46-1....just missed. so i just missed a pretty good score even though i blew some bankroll to get that far. i'm not a play it safe gambler.....my biggest scores have been by doing things everyone else is not...so i took a chance and it was wrong...oh well. i'll be like the rest of you partnering up and chasing the dream today. but i'm not putting anywhere near as much in as i did yesterday(by myself). you often get rewarded taking the path less traveled. was not meant to be this time. i call it what it is ....gambling.....if your not willing to take a gamble......why gamble? i know people think i'm crazy or dumb but i'll put my ability against anyone here...i can pick a race horse and smell a "bad" fave a mile away.....i could not live the way i do if i could not.....blackthroated...you know who i am and you know its true. i've been following this game since the 6th grade and you know it. gee, i wonder why i can't go to the simulcast without half the people asking me who i like. i must lose alot of money....no i don't...thats why most of you will be working next monday morning and i'll be heading to churchill. i'll be at saratoga every day as long as i'm healthy ....boy ....i really suck.....while i'm working on PHd...yeah i'm a moron too......