4/23 (GP): Mandatory Pay Rainbow 6/Discussion

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by robfla

I have to assume that this day is treated very differently from a strategic point of view, especially in relation to the previous P6's at GP.

Any suggestions, strategies?

How much would be a "right" amount to put into it??

if it lasts until saturday. going overboard with thousand dollar tickets is not a way to go. do that tommorrow. the chances of 1 person hitting that day are going to be slim. as someone mentioned groups will have almost every combo covered...the betting sites are trying to have huge pools of people involved...it might actually pay squat....try for the big ticket tommorrow(friday)......if no one hits play a few bucks saturday...everyone and their brother will be playing a million combos saturday....buy mega million tickets your better off. i laugh people are saying its tough sequence..........no ****, i've been chasing it for weeks....what makes saturday any different other than a zillion people will probably hit it. tommorrow is the day to take one last stab.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

if it lasts until saturday. going overboard with thousand dollar tickets is not a way to go. do that tommorrow. the chances of 1 person hitting that day are going to be slim. as someone mentioned groups will have almost every combo covered...the betting sites are trying to have huge pools of people involved...it might actually pay squat....try for the big ticket tommorrow(friday)......if no one hits play a few bucks saturday...everyone and their brother will be playing a million combos saturday....buy mega million tickets your better off. i laugh people are saying its tough sequence..........no ****, i've been chasing it for weeks....what makes saturday any different other than a zillion people will probably hit it. tommorrow is the day to take one last stab.

This is possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Do I really need to explain to you why it's possibly the best bet you could make all YEAR on Saturday? Versus one of the worst on Friday?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Do I really need to explain to you why it's possibly the best bet you could make all YEAR on Saturday? Versus one of the worst on Friday?

I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot poll. If twin spires is actually putting together a 100k ticket what are the chances they miss? I say this pays less than 20 k.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Do I really need to explain to you why it's possibly the best bet you could make all YEAR on Saturday? Versus one of the worst on Friday?

how? if someone hits (alone) today they will get it all. the split may even be higher today, if its not hit..... i've already hit it twice on days where other people have hit(no jackpot) . thats the money i'm using to play today. believe me i know they are giving the whole pool no matter what....but if you spend 1000 dollars chasing it and its a fairly chalky day..oh, i forgot you guys are the only ones doing that......not....you might get your money back .............maybe........you will need to get multiple 50-1 shots or higher home..... and every "gold rush" fool will be tossing in covering every logical horse and then some.....but if you want to follow the sheep over the cliff....be my guest. it all sounds great until you are sharing it with thousands of other live tickets....are you the one that said "tough sequence". yeah, thats brilliance seeing that it has not been done in weeks.....chances are many more people will hit it tommorrow .......its been that way for weeks now(no jackpot). GO FOR IT TODAY. people never get pari mutuel betting....the more people have it ,....the less you get.....that simple. friday could be a block buster life changing hit,,,,,,saturday most likely will be a treasure hunt gimmick......with thousands splitting the pot. the saying is true here...the bandwagon and one is born every minute. don't listen to me...you won't anyway....sit there and do the math. what will it require to get that jackpot tommorrow?????? pretty much a miracle. i've been chasing it to get the whole thing...i've already shared the "booby" prize twice. please tell me how its a better bet when half the world might cash on it unless some really, really freaky horses win multiple races??????? especially if one were to put a thousand in ? i hope someone hits today....real dumb bet.....lol...not that i won't try tommorrow but so will half the world.

[GPK]

5,6,10/
2,3,8/
2,3,4,7,10/
2,10/
1,5,12/
2,9

[philcski]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

how? if someone hits (alone) today they will get it all. the split may even be higher today, if its not hit..... i've already hit it twice on days where other people have hit(no jackpot) . thats the money i'm using to play today. believe me i know they are giving the whole pool no matter what....but if you spend 1000 dollars chasing it and its a fairly chalky day..oh, i forgot you guys are the only ones doing that......not....you might get your money back .............maybe........you will need to get multiple 50-1 shots or higher home..... and every "gold rush" fool will be tossing in covering every logical horse and then some.....but if you want to follow the sheep over the cliff....be my guest. it all sounds great until you are sharing it with thousands of other live tickets....are you the one that said "tough sequence". yeah, thats brilliance seeing that it has not been done in weeks.....chances are many more people will hit it tommorrow .......its been that way for weeks now(no jackpot). GO FOR IT TODAY. people never get pari mutuel betting....the more people have it ,....the less you get.....that simple. friday could be a block buster life changing hit,,,,,,saturday most likely will be a treasure hunt gimmick......with thousands splitting the pot. the saying is true here...the bandwagon and one is born every minute. don't listen to me...you won't anyway....sit there and do the math. what will it require to get that jackpot tommorrow?????? pretty much a miracle. i've been chasing it to get the whole thing...i've already shared the "booby" prize twice. please tell me how its a better bet when half the world might cash on it unless some really, really freaky horses win multiple races??????? especially if one were to put a thousand in ? i hope someone hits today....real dumb bet.....lol...not that i won't try tommorrow but so will half the world.

Because you WON'T be just getting your money back, even if it chalks out.

The takeout is 20%. So if there's $4 million bet in tomorrow, and $1.5 million in the carryover, there will be a $700k overlay on the payout- so you're playing with a ~20% bonus on the payoff, and that's just assuming the betting distribution will be "normal". Like you said, there will be tons of people playing even the most extreme combos (with Twinspires putting in $100k alone, they will have to spread extremely wide by necessity.) The chances of having a lone winning ticket tomorrow are virtually none. That is no longer the objective since the distribution is mandatory. It's taking advantage of the huge money already in the pool to hit a reasonable combo with a 20-25% bonus in the payoff. If that's not good enough for you, by all means waste your money today chasing absurd horses trying for the whole pool. Good luck.

[robfla]

I read somewhere that Gulfstream should "buy" the ticket today, to ensure a carry for tomorrow...Local papers are estimating 5 million tomorrow.

Tomorrow, If these field sizes hold, there will be 2,488,320 combinations, requiring an investment of $248,832 to cover every possibility.

http://blogs.trb.com/entertainment/n...grow_to_5.html

[trackrat59]

I'm thinking that the best thing to do is run a few tix with a good number of shots and hope for the best. Then, go play another track and not worry about it.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by philcski

Because you WON'T be just getting your money back, even if it chalks out.

The takeout is 20%. So if there's $4 million bet in tomorrow, and $1.5 million in the carryover, there will be a $700k overlay on the payout- so you're playing with a ~20% bonus on the payoff, and that's just assuming the betting distribution will be "normal". Like you said, there will be tons of people playing even the most extreme combos (with Twinspires putting in $100k alone, they will have to spread extremely wide by necessity.) The chances of having a lone winning ticket tomorrow are virtually none. That is no longer the objective since the distribution is mandatory. It's taking advantage of the huge money already in the pool to hit a reasonable combo with a 20-25% bonus in the payoff. If that's not good enough for you, by all means waste your money today chasing absurd horses trying for the whole pool. Good luck.

Phil, do you know who you're talking to?! He "pretty much makes [his] living doing this."

[pointman]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Phil, do you know who you're talking to?! He "pretty much makes [his] living doing this."

Don't forget about all the winners he gives out after the races have been run. He will post the winning ticket on Sunday.

[lemoncrush]

I agree...his logic makes no sense.

Hey, I'm putting together a $40 ticket for a dime, and then not just enjoy it and not worry too much about it.

The fun for tomorrow is you can invest a small amount of money, and if you hit it, it will be like hitting a nice pk 4. Playing Friday is almost pointless unless you have some serious longshots that you love.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Phil, do you know who you're talking to?! He "pretty much makes [his] living doing this."

I pretty much make my living doing nothing! Pays well!

Paid pretty well today considering there was two odds-on and one other favorite selection in the sequence.

Some guy sitting by me at Keeneland got knocked out in the 2nd leg and won the 3rd and 4th, then starts getting excited, "I can still get 5 of 6!" I said to him "Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but they don't pay 5 of 6". These are the guys we are playing against tomorrow- definitely guys that make their living at it.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by philcski

I pretty much make my living doing nothing! Pays well!

Paid pretty well today considering there was two odds-on and one other favorite selection in the sequence.

Some guy sitting by me at Keeneland got knocked out in the 2nd leg and won the 3rd and 4th, then starts getting excited, "I can still get 5 of 6!" I said to him "Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but they don't pay 5 of 6". These are the guys we are playing against tomorrow- definitely guys that make their living at it.

I wanna be like you when I grow up.


No short jokes needed...

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by philcski

Because you WON'T be just getting your money back, even if it chalks out.

The takeout is 20%. So if there's $4 million bet in tomorrow, and $1.5 million in the carryover, there will be a $700k overlay on the payout- so you're playing with a ~20% bonus on the payoff, and that's just assuming the betting distribution will be "normal". Like you said, there will be tons of people playing even the most extreme combos (with Twinspires putting in $100k alone, they will have to spread extremely wide by necessity.) The chances of having a lone winning ticket tomorrow are virtually none. That is no longer the objective since the distribution is mandatory. It's taking advantage of the huge money already in the pool to hit a reasonable combo with a 20-25% bonus in the payoff. If that's not good enough for you, by all means waste your money today chasing absurd horses trying for the whole pool. Good luck.

you were right....it sort of blew up in my face....but they scracthed alot of horses yesterday(2 or 3 in almost every race)...which made hitting it almost impossible...you have to use some ridiculous horses if you expect to hit it. i had the 11 in the 9th yesterday (withches orchard) at 46-1....just missed. so i just missed a pretty good score even though i blew some bankroll to get that far. i'm not a play it safe gambler.....my biggest scores have been by doing things everyone else is not...so i took a chance and it was wrong...oh well. i'll be like the rest of you partnering up and chasing the dream today. but i'm not putting anywhere near as much in as i did yesterday(by myself). you often get rewarded taking the path less traveled. was not meant to be this time. i call it what it is ....gambling.....if your not willing to take a gamble......why gamble? i know people think i'm crazy or dumb but i'll put my ability against anyone here...i can pick a race horse and smell a "bad" fave a mile away.....i could not live the way i do if i could not.....blackthroated...you know who i am and you know its true. i've been following this game since the 6th grade and you know it. gee, i wonder why i can't go to the simulcast without half the people asking me who i like. i must lose alot of money....no i don't...thats why most of you will be working next monday morning and i'll be heading to churchill. i'll be at saratoga every day as long as i'm healthy ....boy ....i really suck.....while i'm working on PHd...yeah i'm a moron too......

[onebadbeast]

i will throw in a big dime: 10 cents, and some quick picks

[dagolfer33]

I've invested $19.20 in a personal ticket and $20 in the TS players pool. Best case scenario I win a few hundred bucks, worst case I lose $40. Play ball.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

how? if someone hits (alone) today they will get it all. the split may even be higher today, if its not hit..... i've already hit it twice on days where other people have hit(no jackpot) . thats the money i'm using to play today. believe me i know they are giving the whole pool no matter what....but if you spend 1000 dollars chasing it and its a fairly chalky day..oh, i forgot you guys are the only ones doing that......not....you might get your money back .............maybe........you will need to get multiple 50-1 shots or higher home..... and every "gold rush" fool will be tossing in covering every logical horse and then some.....but if you want to follow the sheep over the cliff....be my guest. it all sounds great until you are sharing it with thousands of other live tickets....are you the one that said "tough sequence". yeah, thats brilliance seeing that it has not been done in weeks.....chances are many more people will hit it tommorrow .......its been that way for weeks now(no jackpot). GO FOR IT TODAY. people never get pari mutuel betting....the more people have it ,....the less you get.....that simple. friday could be a block buster life changing hit,,,,,,saturday most likely will be a treasure hunt gimmick......with thousands splitting the pot. the saying is true here...the bandwagon and one is born every minute. don't listen to me...you won't anyway....sit there and do the math. what will it require to get that jackpot tommorrow?????? pretty much a miracle. i've been chasing it to get the whole thing...i've already shared the "booby" prize twice. please tell me how its a better bet when half the world might cash on it unless some really, really freaky horses win multiple races??????? especially if one were to put a thousand in ? i hope someone hits today....real dumb bet.....lol...not that i won't try tommorrow but so will half the world.

This should be on a plaque. Pretty much all chalk except for one modest price, and it pays more than six times the parlay. But yeah, Friday was the day to play.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

This should be on a plaque. Pretty much all chalk except for one modest price, and it pays more than six times the parlay. But yeah, Friday was the day to play.

you should take a math class ....morons were putting up 1000 today(so they said)...did you read the post????...i hit it for 58 dollars.it was simple..forget picking horses you need a math class...betting 1000 is not even 3-1 for a pic 6.....read what i said...the split was about the SAME as yesterday..just like i said..how can you even brag .....one moron claimed it was the best bet of the year...give me a break...i could of bet 1000 on ONE 3-1 shot....oh, its the best bet of the year...idiots i was trying for the rainbow for weeks...just like i said... i did not want booby prize...3000 is like two weeks bets for me....if that...i do this for real. i did the math and told you it woiuld not pay much more than a grand..i guess i'm not an expert at math ....idiot. it paid 3..... wow, best bet of the year...twice the parlay....yeah, friggin right..if you put a thousand in......i guess i did not read about that here......1000 on that bet was sucker city......sorry......there were two singles yesterday and i think it paid more...chumps

[philcski]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

you should take a math class ....morons were putting up 1000 today(so they said)...did you read the post????...i hit it for 58 dollars.it was simple..forget picking horses you need a math class...betting 1000 is not even 3-1 for a pic 6.....read what i said...the split was about the SAME as yesterday..just like i said..how can you even brag .....one moron claimed it was the best bet of the year...give me a break...i could of bet 1000 on ONE 3-1 shot....oh, its the best bet of the year...idiots i was trying for the rainbow for weeks...just like i said... i did not want booby prize...3000 is like two weeks bets for me....if that...i do this for real. i did the math and told you it woiuld not pay much more than a grand..i guess i'm not an expert at math ....idiot. it paid 3..... wow, best bet of the year...twice the parlay....yeah, friggin right..if you put a thousand in......i guess i did not read about that here......1000 on that bet was sucker city......sorry......there were two singles yesterday and i think it paid more...chumps

Math skills lacking... it paid SIX TIMES the parlay, as Ateam stated. That is why it was the best bet of the year. If you had a 3-1 shot that should have been 1-2, then THAT would also be the best bet of the year.

My matrix was available for public viewing here. https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?...FE&hl=en#gid=0

Where was your ticket before the day started Mr. 58??

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Where was your ticket before the day started Mr. 58??

It's hard to say, as it was different than the post race one.