WAGER NEWS: .50 NYRA P4; GP .10 P6 dispersal 4/23; HOL adds .50 P5

[pointman]

Originally Posted by jms62

Hollywood is competing against their P6 with a P5... Interesting to see how that will work out.

That is an excellent point, jms, I didn't put that together. I suppose if it doesn't reduce the pk6 pools substantially in California, New York might give it a try. I would really love the opportunity to go after 50 cent pk5's at Saratoga!

[NTamm1215]

It will be interesting to see how it works out at HOL but putting it on the first five races gives them some leverage on 9-10 race cards. On a weekday card you could have a lot of people who are 2-2 in a Pick 5 and decide against playing the Pick 6.

Hopefully they opt against offering a consolation payout. I think that Monmouth did it best by not having a conso. It eats up too much of the pool and the reward for those going 5-5.

If you look at how Keeneland did this year on Blue Grass day vs. 2010 the numbers are as follows:

2010

All-Stakes Pick 4 (Races 6-9): $417,334
2nd Pick 4 (Races 8-11): $298,071
Pick 6 (Races 6-11): $37,239
TOTAL: $752,644

2011

All-Stakes Pick 4 (Races 6-9): $338,426
2nd Pick 4 (Races 7-10): $319,649
Pick 5 (Races 6-10): $180,513
TOTAL: $838,588

Clearly, for a place like Kee where Pick 6 handle was low, the Pick 5 was a great move. At a place where Pick 6 handle is regularly 30k on non-carryover days (NYRA) or closer to 100k (CA) the impact is unknown.

[Scav]

I hate that Hollywood is adding that. California is one of the last places that has a large P6 pool and they are going to eat away at it with this P5 crap.

I love the P5 idea, for tracks without a steady P6 pool.

This is just panic setting in. I really wish that they would argue with the takeout hounds about how they have the lowest takeout in the nation on WPS wagers, I haven't seen them mention it once.

[MaTH716]

The Hollywood Pick 5 seems a bit aggressive between the small field sizes and their unfortunate tendency to having to cancel cards due to the lack of entries. Not sure what it's going to do to the pick 6, but you would have to think that the early pick four is going to take it on the chin.

[lemoncrush]

With so many tracks looking to bolster their wagering menu, I still find it amazing that it's impossible to put together some kind of multi-track wager like the Magna 5, Sixty Minute 6, or the National PK 4's that have all fallen by the wayside.

I assume the only thing prohibiting it is tracks not wanting to cooperate with one another.

[jms62]

I just can't see a P5 and P6 existing without hurting the P6. I think NYRA should consider eliminating the P6 and replace it with a P5. I would venture to guess that the P5 would consistently outperform their P6. An all-graded National P5 held on Saturdays would work for me. Calif, New York, Chicago, Fla and the best of whoever is left.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by jms62

I just can't see a P5 and P6 existing without hurting the P6. I think NYRA should consider eliminating the P6 and replace it with a P5. I would venture to guess that the P5 would consistently outperform their P6. An all-graded National P5 held on Saturdays would work for me. Calif, New York, Chicago, Fla and the best of whoever is left.

I don't know if they would be able to do it, but what about NYRA just rolling out a pick 5 on big days when they have at least 11 races.

Move the early pick 4 to be races 1-4
Pick 5 could be races 3-7
Pick 6 races 6-11
Late pick races 4 8-11

This way there is only a 2 race overlap with the bets for the pick 5 and pick 6.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I don't know if they would be able to do it, but what about NYRA just rolling out a pick 5 on big days when they have at least 11 races.

Move the early pick 4 to be races 1-4
Pick 5 could be races 3-7
Pick 6 races 6-11
Late pick races 4 8-11

This way there is only a 2 race overlap with the bets for the pick 5 and pick 6.

Speaking for myself I usually only get involved in the P6 when it is a million+ but I'll throw a hundo at a P5 usually every Sunday at Monmouth and have participated at Keeneland each Sat and the carryover day. I would welcome a Saratoga P5 with an open wallet.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I don't know if they would be able to do it, but what about NYRA just rolling out a pick 5 on big days when they have at least 11 races.

Move the early pick 4 to be races 1-4
Pick 5 could be races 3-7
Pick 6 races 6-11
Late pick races 4 8-11

This way there is only a 2 race overlap with the bets for the pick 5 and pick 6.

There is alot of NYRA people around here that will disagree with me, but if I was running the NYRA, I would request to abandon the P6 entirely, add a P5 wager with 20% takeout and do it for $1 with a carryover, no conso. Now, I'll admit that I don't follow the NYRA completely, but I remember them only getting about 20-30k on a non-carryover day. I think they could do 70k a day non carryover and probably 300k if there was a 50k carryover.

[Alan07]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

The Hollywood Pick 5 seems a bit aggressive between the small field sizes and their unfortunate tendency to having to cancel cards due to the lack of entries. Not sure what it's going to do to the pick 6, but you would have to think that the early pick four is going to take it on the chin.

They should have considered lowering the P6 take than adding a new wager.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

This is just panic setting in. I really wish that they would argue with the takeout hounds about how they have the lowest takeout in the nation on WPS wagers, I haven't seen them mention it once.

They do?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

They do?

I think it is .57% lower then anyone in TB racing. California is a main circuit for me, and I'll admit that I like following the P6, I think this is gonna hurt it tremendously and they are missing the point in this move.

[Alan07]

Originally Posted by Scav

I think it is .57% lower then anyone in TB racing. California is a main circuit for me, and I'll admit that I like following the P6, I think this is gonna hurt it tremendously and they are missing the point in this move.

Even more stupid is the P4 on 2-5 of an 8 race card.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

This is just panic setting in. I really wish that they would argue with the takeout hounds about how they have the lowest takeout in the nation on WPS wagers, I haven't seen them mention it once.

In terms of thoroughbred racing they do... I forgot about the NYRA spike.