Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap

[justindew]

Originally Posted by paulo537

His biggest problem is he isn't close to ready to run competitively in the Derby, much less win it. That's what I think.

Not trying to straddle both sides of the fence on this issue, but you might be wrong here. The only really inspiring winning efforts have been Premier Pegasus in the San Felipe and The Factor in the Rebel. That's it. I guess you could add Dialed In's Florida Derby win if you wanted to considering, as Doug pointed out, Dialed In would have been in the lead in that stakes race for older horses earlier on the card. So let's call it three really good winning efforts. Then you have to lower the bar to get excited about anything else....

Uncle Mo came home fast in the Timely Writer.

Mucho Macho Man lost a shoe and still ran on well in the Louisiana Derby.

Shackleford was gutsy after going fast up front in the Florida Derby.

Nehro seems to be improving over his last two losses.

Comma to the Top aquitted himself well in his last two losses.

Personally, the only horse I would consider playing in the Kentucky Derby out of the Arkansas Derby are The Factor (unless I end up not buying the excuse....haven't decided yet) and Dance City (who won't get in). The Blue Grass was a joke and we know it. I'm not a fan of Midnight Interlude. And it seems like half the Derby field will be turf/polytrack specialists.

If there was ever a year where a horse like Uncle Mo can win the Derby, this is the year. He just doesn't have to beat much, and he's already been where he will need to be to win (that's not just a Beyer reference). Would any of us really say that Uncle Mo can't turn the tables on Toby's Corner? Or outrun Pants on Fire? I still think the race goes through Uncle Mo. It's his to lose. And he might not be favored.