Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Since when is a horse that's 40/1 to win the Kentucky Derby 4 full weeks out - not an overlay at 25/1 in the Arkansas Derby?

Sometimes I seriously think some of you people are hopelessly retarded.

25/1 is a 4% chance of winning.

I see.

Your top two have, as you call it, a 35% chance of winning, right?

Neither of them has a greater than 50% chance of running.

I've seen people shoehorned into handicapping by BSFs before but really this is amazing.

I'll save the return insult and not label you a hopeless Mo-tard, but it was a bit of a tough decision.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by paulo537

I see.

Your top two have, as you call it, a 35% chance of winning, right?

Neither of them has a greater than 50% chance of running.

Really? I'd make a humongous bet at even money that Dialed In will run. Your statement is ridiculous unless you have some inside knowledge about Dialed In's condition, which I doubt.


--Dunbar

[Travis Stone]

Does anyone think Uncle Mo goes off the favorite, despite Dialed In's win/record?

[santana]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Does anyone think Uncle Mo goes off the favorite, despite Dialed In's win/record?

I think he will be the fav, not by much though.

[DaTruth]

I know horses can often develop quickly between the end of their 2yo season and the Derby, but it is kinda disturbing that the fourth horse on your list was getting drubbed in a maiden race at Fair Grounds in December. Not that Archarcharch was that much more accomplished at the time, as six days later, he broke his maiden while beating three opponents in the Sugar Bowl.

[Mawhip]

Since Archarcharch was such an overlay, you must have really scored Drugs. If you didn't, then stop talking.

And if you really think Uncle Mo is 19% to win the Derby, you should find something else to do. He probably isn't 19% to run.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Mawhip

Since Archarcharch was such an overlay, you must have really scored Drugs. If you didn't, then stop talking.

And if you really think Uncle Mo is 19% to win the Derby, you should find something else to do. He probably isn't 19% to run.

Thanks.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Mawhip

Since Archarcharch was such an overlay, you must have really scored Drugs. If you didn't, then stop talking.

And if you really think Uncle Mo is 19% to win the Derby, you should find something else to do. He probably isn't 19% to run.

Is Lehman Brothers hiring?

Why did you friend me on Facebook? For the fast food reviews or the cock pics?

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Really? I'd make a humongous bet at even money that Dialed In will run. Your statement is ridiculous unless you have some inside knowledge about Dialed In's condition, which I doubt.


--Dunbar

Yes, really. He is indeed running.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by paulo537

I see.

You don't see anything - you're acting as if you have juicy inside-info on Uncle Mo's health .... chances are - you don't.

Beyer's play a VERY small role in my handicapping. Of course - since you're the analytically incompetent Johnny Pinwheel 2.0 - I'm sure you can't see that.

The fact that you don't even understand what an overlay is - is most amusing. I'll try and explain this one last time.

From last week....

Updated Chances of winning:

Uncle Mo (18.50%)
Dialed In (14.50%)
The Factor (12.50%)
Midnight Interlude (7.50%)
Elite Alex (6%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (4.25%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Santiva (2.50%)
Archarcharch (2.50%)
Sway Away (2.50%)
Jaycito (2.00%)
Nehro (1.75%)
Astrology (1.50%)
Mr. Commons (1%)
Arthur's Tale (1%)
Decisive Moment (0.80%)
Pants on Fire (0.80%)
Animal Kingdom (0.80%)
Bretheren (0.50%)
Stay Thirsty (0.33%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)

The Rest: 3.75%

Here are the horses who ran in the Arkansas Derby - with Derby odds four weeks out - and with closing odds yesterday:

The Factor (12.5%) Closing odds: 4-to-5
Elite Alex (6%) Closing odds: 6-to-1
Archarcharch (2.5%) Closing odds: 25-to-1
Sway Away (2.5%) Closing odds: 6-to-1
Nehro (1.75%) Closing odds: 9-to-1
Brethren (0.50%) Closing odds: 11-to-1

No one else in the race was quoted with a Derby chance - just grouped into 'The Rest' with several hundred other 3yo's.

Archarcharch was about 12-to-1 fair value to win yesterday - and relatively stronger than that to run underneath due to his versatile running style. I also felt Elite Alex was a slight overlay in the win end - but the addition of 1st time blinkers often leads to a boom or bust type of performance.

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You don't see anything - you're acting as if you have juicy inside-info on Uncle Mo's health .... chances are - you don't.

Beyer's play a VERY small role in my handicapping. Of course - since you're the analytically incompetent Johnny Pinwheel 2.0 - I'm sure you can't see that.

The fact that you don't even understand what an overlay is - is most amusing. I'll try and explain this one last time.

From last week....




Here are the horses who ran in the Arkansas Derby - with Derby odds four weeks out - and with closing odds yesterday:

The Factor (12.5%) Closing odds: 4-to-5
Elite Alex (6%) Closing odds: 6-to-1
Archarcharch (2.5%) Closing odds: 25-to-1
Sway Away (2.5%) Closing odds: 6-to-1
Nehro (1.75%) Closing odds: 9-to-1
Brethren (0.50%) Closing odds: 11-to-1

No one else in the race was quoted with a Derby chance - just grouped into 'The Rest' with several hundred other 3yo's.

Archarcharch was about 12-to-1 fair value to win yesterday - and relatively stronger than that to run underneath due to his versatile running style. I also felt Elite Alex was a slight overlay in the win end - but the addition of 1st time blinkers often leads to a boom or bust type of performance.

Thanks. I'm glad you're amused, I really am. Now we're even.

It's pretty amazing that Uncle Mo tops your most likely list, or anyone's for that matter. My "inside information" is pretty much what I see:
1. He's 6-8 lengths off his 2 yo form
2. He's got distance questions
3. He ran his Wood like he was not only short but didn't look real good at any time. Changing leads multiple times like he did fairly early ain't a good sign.
4. He's got physical issues. Q-crack and his GI disorder are minor things but, at a minimum (and at best) it likely explains his subpar Wood which, to me at least, means he didn't run hard enough to get what he needed from the race.

The "mystery procedure?" I know what I read, that's all. I doubt he'd have come back so quick from anything moderate to serious. But, yeah, I'd guess he had a ittle work done.

His biggest problem is he isn't close to ready to run competitively in the Derby, much less win it. That's what I think.

You obviously think he's likely to work great, overcome whatever number and degree of physical issues he has, have no problem going 10f and run above, or at least match, his top 2 yo form. With all that he's still your most likely winner.

While I understand what an overlay is, I want to commend you making ArchArch 12/1 on your fair value line and getting $52 to win. That is hot sh1t indeed.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by paulo537

His biggest problem is he isn't close to ready to run competitively in the Derby, much less win it. That's what I think.

Not trying to straddle both sides of the fence on this issue, but you might be wrong here. The only really inspiring winning efforts have been Premier Pegasus in the San Felipe and The Factor in the Rebel. That's it. I guess you could add Dialed In's Florida Derby win if you wanted to considering, as Doug pointed out, Dialed In would have been in the lead in that stakes race for older horses earlier on the card. So let's call it three really good winning efforts. Then you have to lower the bar to get excited about anything else....

Uncle Mo came home fast in the Timely Writer.

Mucho Macho Man lost a shoe and still ran on well in the Louisiana Derby.

Shackleford was gutsy after going fast up front in the Florida Derby.

Nehro seems to be improving over his last two losses.

Comma to the Top aquitted himself well in his last two losses.

Personally, the only horse I would consider playing in the Kentucky Derby out of the Arkansas Derby are The Factor (unless I end up not buying the excuse....haven't decided yet) and Dance City (who won't get in). The Blue Grass was a joke and we know it. I'm not a fan of Midnight Interlude. And it seems like half the Derby field will be turf/polytrack specialists.

If there was ever a year where a horse like Uncle Mo can win the Derby, this is the year. He just doesn't have to beat much, and he's already been where he will need to be to win (that's not just a Beyer reference). Would any of us really say that Uncle Mo can't turn the tables on Toby's Corner? Or outrun Pants on Fire? I still think the race goes through Uncle Mo. It's his to lose. And he might not be favored.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by justindew

Not trying to straddle both sides of the fence on this issue, but you might be wrong here. The only really inspiring winning efforts have been Premier Pegasus in the San Felipe and The Factor in the Rebel. That's it. I guess you could add Dialed In's Florida Derby win if you wanted to considering, as Doug pointed out, Dialed In would have been in the lead in that stakes race for older horses earlier on the card. So let's call it three really good winning efforts. Then you have to lower the bar to get excited about anything else....

Uncle Mo came home fast in the Timely Writer.

Mucho Macho Man lost a shoe and still ran on well in the Louisiana Derby.

Shackleford was gutsy after going fast up front in the Florida Derby.

Nehro seems to be improving over his last two losses.

Comma to the Top aquitted himself well in his last two losses.

Personally, the only horse I would consider playing in the Kentucky Derby out of the Arkansas Derby are The Factor (unless I end up not buying the excuse....haven't decided yet) and Dance City (who won't get in). The Blue Grass was a joke and we know it. I'm not a fan of Midnight Interlude. And it seems like half the Derby field will be turf/polytrack specialists.

If there was ever a year where a horse like Uncle Mo can win the Derby, this is the year. He just doesn't have to beat much, and he's already been where he will need to be to win (that's not just a Beyer reference). Would any of us really say that Uncle Mo can't turn the tables on Toby's Corner? Or outrun Pants on Fire? I still think the race goes through Uncle Mo. It's his to lose. And he might not be favored.

90% of the betters out there don the blinkers and handicap soley on the last race. Very little value to be found in doing that. Uncle Mo may be the overlay of the century in the Derby.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by jms62

90% of the betters out there don the blinkers and handicap soley on the last race. Very little value to be found in doing that. Uncle Mo may be the overlay of the century in the Derby.

Here is where I think the odds will end up for the top choices at post time:

Dialed In 9-2
Uncle Mo 5-1
The Factor 10-1
Nehro 11-1
Archarcharch 12-1
Jaycito 13-1
Midnight Interlude 15-1
Toby's Corner 15-1
Mucho Macho Man 15-1
Soldat 15-1
Pants on Fire 18-1
Over 20-1 on everyone else