3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I guess Maclean's Music should go straight to the Derby.

I'm not making the inductive argument that any and all 3-year-olds with a triple digit Beyer should go to the Derby. I'm saying because the crop is so level in terms of ability, with the the bar set very low, anyone within a sniff should give it a shot, or at least consider it.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not making the inductive argument that any and all 3-year-olds with a triple digit Beyer should go to the Derby. I'm saying because the crop is so level in terms of ability, with the the bar set very low, anyone within a sniff should give it a shot, or at least consider it.

Whether or not anyone agrees with R Heat Lightning running in the Derby, fact of the matter is that it is very possible. Devil May Care, from the same stable, ran in the Derby last year as a late addition following the implosion of Eskendereya. Arguably, she had worse credentials than R Heat Lightning going in, and ended up running a decent race.

[Indian Charlie]

I repeat.

She would get slaughtered in the Derby.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I repeat.

She would get slaughtered in the Derby.

Nevertheless, she's still probably Todd Pletcher's best shot to get back-to-back Derby victories.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Nevertheless, she's still probably Todd Pletcher's best shot to get back-to-back Derby victories.

Hardly.

Even if UM was done, I'd take Brethren or even that Joe Vann over her.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Hardly.

Even if UM was done, I'd take Brethren or even that Joe Vann over her.

Joe Vann isn't TC nominated and wouldn't get in on earnings. Brethren is worthless. But still, R Heat Lightning can't win the Derby.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Joe Vann isn't TC nominated and wouldn't get in on earnings. Brethren is worthless. But still, R Heat Lightning can't win the Derby.

Correct.

Though, now that I think about that dazzling logic you just used on me, I think that yeah, since neither Joe Vann or Brethren can win the Derby, then absolutely, R Heat Lightning is an immortal lock!!!

Everything is perfectly fugging clear now.

Your brain is made out of marshmallow.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Nevertheless, she's still probably Todd Pletcher's best shot to get back-to-back Derby victories.

You really think R Heat Lightening has a better chance of winning than Uncle Mo?

Duca was the only other horse in the Wood Memorial 2nd off the layoff - and he had the exact same running style as Uncle Mo ...




You can say - well, he only won a maiden last out. But the horse who was 2nd in that maiden race came back and closed against a moderate pace and actually ran a pretty nice figure when 2nd in the Ill Derby next time out.

A horse like Arthur's Tale was making his 7th start at 8f or more - in a span of less than the last 7 months. He already had 3 two-turn route races under him this year... and he's been working steadily between races. He had a monumental 'fitness' and 'foundation' edge on Uncle Mo.

Toby's Corner also had 3 routes under his belt this year - unlike Uncle Mo - he had a 6f workout under his belt.... and I've liked Toby's Corner enough to keep posting odds for him to win the Derby every week - even though he had almost zero Graded earnings this week and only had one race to try and get it.

I guess people want to work with the angle 'Uncle Mo's just not the same horse since his secret surgery after the Breeders Cup' .... perhaps - but it's hardly conclusive at this point.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You really think R Heat Lightening has a better chance of winning than Uncle Mo?

No. I was joking. The only race I've seen of R Heat Lightning's was the Davona Dale.

I guess people want to work with the angle 'Uncle Mo's just not the same horse since his secret surgery after the Breeders Cup' .... perhaps - but it's hardly conclusive at this point.

Not sure of any of that, but I certainly wouldn't be working the angle that Todd Pletcher was racing Uncle Mo into condition, either.

By the way, the most productive race on the Derby trail (albeit with the advantage of position on the calendar) was the Count Fleet. Should be a Grade 3 next year.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Not sure of any of that, but I certainly wouldn't be working the angle that Todd Pletcher was racing Uncle Mo into condition, either.

I agree with you on that ...

However, in hindsight, these 9f dirt routes at AQU have all been run like battle of attrition/survival of the fittest type races - and speed has really had no success relative to expectations for a dirt surface.

Velazquez was riding him like he was on a loaded keg of dynamite - and when he finally asked - he really looked like a very tired horse who was trying to give his best to no avail.

[tiggerv]

Fat Chart for the Wood.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not making the inductive argument that any and all 3-year-olds with a triple digit Beyer should go to the Derby.

I sure wouldn't be affraid to go to the Preakness next with Bind.