3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

In light of yesterday's developments and Pletcher's comments after the Florida Derby, should odds be posted on R Heat Lightning (not that I would fancy her chances)?

She's not nominated, I don't believe. But I have thought the same thing. If I owned her, I would strongly consider it.

[Indian Charlie]

She would get slaughtered

[Travis Stone]

She would have something that no one else (save for a big Arkansas Derby figure) would have - a triple digit last out Beyer.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

She would have something that no one else (save for a big Arkansas Derby figure) would have - a triple digit last out Beyer.

I think Soldat has one.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by cal828

I think Soldat has one.

You're right, he does, but I was referring to "last out."

My point for what was once called (by some) "one of the best crops" ever, is now a pile of "huh?" I don't think anyone should be scared to enter.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

You're right, he does, but I was referring to "last out."

My point for what was once called (by some) "one of the best crops" ever, is now a pile of "huh?" I don't think anyone should be scared to enter.

Really? Really?!?!? Can you please post a link to someone calling this one of the best crops? I would love to see their other opinions.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by jms62

Really? Really?!?!? Can you please post a link to someone calling this one of the best crops? I would love to see their other opinions.

I'm not going to call people out for having a bad opinion, because I've had many myself. But I did see it written (or a flavor of it) in more than one place, which is fine, because things change constantly in horse racing...

My point is that as of right now, this is not a tremendous group of horses, and no one should be hesitant to take a shot if they are in shouting distance in terms of ability.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

She would have something that no one else (save for a big Arkansas Derby figure) would have - a triple digit last out Beyer.

I guess Maclean's Music should go straight to the Derby.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I guess Maclean's Music should go straight to the Derby.

I'm not making the inductive argument that any and all 3-year-olds with a triple digit Beyer should go to the Derby. I'm saying because the crop is so level in terms of ability, with the the bar set very low, anyone within a sniff should give it a shot, or at least consider it.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not making the inductive argument that any and all 3-year-olds with a triple digit Beyer should go to the Derby. I'm saying because the crop is so level in terms of ability, with the the bar set very low, anyone within a sniff should give it a shot, or at least consider it.

Whether or not anyone agrees with R Heat Lightning running in the Derby, fact of the matter is that it is very possible. Devil May Care, from the same stable, ran in the Derby last year as a late addition following the implosion of Eskendereya. Arguably, she had worse credentials than R Heat Lightning going in, and ended up running a decent race.

[Indian Charlie]

I repeat.

She would get slaughtered in the Derby.

[tiggerv]

Fat Chart for the Wood.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not making the inductive argument that any and all 3-year-olds with a triple digit Beyer should go to the Derby.

I sure wouldn't be affraid to go to the Preakness next with Bind.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I guess Maclean's Music should go straight to the Derby.

Without question. Unfortunately he's got that zero graded earnings issue holding him back.