Fla Derby recap - Updated Derby Chances

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think the chances of him running 1-2 in the SA Derby are very good. I'm not interested in what the connections are saying right now.

The horse has no trouble staying 8.5f on synthetic - he won a Grade 1 on Cushion track - which is as close to dirt of any synthetic - and he almost beat Jaycito at that distance on dirt despite having every reason in the world to be beaten 20+ lengths.

I've always thought of him as being pretty conservative, but, ok. I guess 1.5% isn't much anyways.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've always thought of him as being pretty conservative, but, ok. I guess 1.5% isn't much anyways.

Not at all - he likes to buy the fast cheaply bred ones from the 2yo sales - and he races his horses. When I think of conservative - I think of guys like Shug, Drysdale, Ward, Dickinson when he was around - etc.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Not at all - he likes to buy the fast cheaply bred ones from the 2yo sales - and he races his horses. When I think of conservative - I think of guys like Shug, Drysdale, Ward, Dickinson when he was around - etc.

Conservative was a poor choice of word. I was trying to say that he, at least back in the day, wasn't one to flip flop, misdirect, etc, when speaking.

Which, come to think of it, is pretty much the opposite of conservative.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He called Backbackbackgone "the best horse I've ever trained" - if he runs well in the SA Derby - his connections are not going to pass up the Ky Derby with a horse he bought for peanuts who has paid for himself about twenty times over.

The weirdest thing about today ... the opening half mile in the Swale was SLOWER than the opening half mile in the Florida Derby - that's almost impossible.

Last year - 20/1 winner Ice Box came from dead last of 11, 29/1 2nd place finisher Pleasant Prince was 9th of 11 early, and 10/1 4th place finisher Lentenor was 10th of 11 early.

So - last year - when the pace totally collapsed in the Fla Derby ... the Swale pace was almost two full seconds faster.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He called Backbackbackgone "the best horse I've ever trained" - if he runs well in the SA Derby - his connections are not going to pass up the Ky Derby with a horse he bought for peanuts who has paid for himself about twenty times over.

The weirdest thing about today ... the opening half mile in the Swale was SLOWER than the opening half mile in the Florida Derby - that's almost impossible.

Last year - 20/1 winner Ice Box came from dead last of 11, 29/1 2nd place finisher Pleasant Prince was 9th of 11 early, and 10/1 4th place finisher Lentenor was 10th of 11 early.

So - last year - when the pace totally collapsed in the Fla Derby ... the Swale pace was almost two full seconds faster.

Yeah, it seemed to me that everyone had a severe allergy to the lead, the way the horses were ridden in the Swale.

I thought the runnerup was hurt the most, and that's not my bias speaking.