Fla Derby recap - Updated Derby Chances
 

An absolutely screaming fast pace helped result in one of the slowest Florida Derby's ever. The figure isn't out yet ... but even my projected 92 for Dialed In might be a tad generous.

The race was all but lost by everyone not named Dialed In going into the first turn...



Flashpoint ran a huge pace figure sprinting in the Hutcheson - they simply ran much too fast for him early to clear this field.

Even though Dialed In was a LONG way last early - he was running fast enough to where he would have been leading after just a half mile - had he ran in the Grade 3 for older males one race prior.



Top 4 finishers in older male Graded Stake 30 minutes earlier:





Shackleford would have owned a 12 length early lead after just a half mile in that older Graded Stakes race. Soldat would have owned an 8.5 length early lead in that race .. and wouldn't have had dirt kicked back in his face while racing in an uncomfortable tactical position.

Even Stay Thirsty and Bowman's Causeway would have had 7 lengths early.

Everyone simply went way too fast - even Dialed In went a little too fast for his own good - but considering the pace and his trip - he should have been between maybe 1/5 or 2/5 odds to win that race at the 5/8 pole.. and he almost failed.

Much like with Ice Box last year - Dialed In should get another similar setup in the Derby.

I had him rated the #1 most likely horse to run either 3rd or 4th in the Ky Derby coming into this week ... and to me - his performance in the Fla Derby looked a lot like a horse I'd love to have in the 3rd and 4th slot on my Derby tickets ... and a horse who I plan on taking an extreme negative position against after the Derby.


My Updated Chances of winning:


Uncle Mo (29.75%)
Dialed In (12.00%)
The Factor (10.50%)
Premier Pegasus (9.25%)
Silver Medallion (4.50%)
To Honor And Serve (3.5%)
Soldat (3%)
Mucho Macho Man (3%)
Jaycito (3.25%)
Elite Alex (2.5%)
Santiva (2.0%)
Mr. Commons (1.75%)
Sheckleford (1.75%)
Comma to the Top (1.5%)
Archarcharch (1.50%)
Anthony's Cross (1%)
Sway Away (1%)
Nehro (0.75%)
Astrology (0.84%)
Decisive Moment (0.50%)
Toby's Corner (0.50%)
Pants on Fire (0.40%)
Animal Kingdom (0.40%)
Bretheren (0.33%)
Stay Thirsty (0.33%)
Watch Me Go (0.25%)
Twice the Appeal (0.20%)

The Rest: 3.75%

Doncha think 1.5% on Comma to the Top is a bit high, all things considered?

I think the chances of him running 1-2 in the SA Derby are very good. I'm not interested in what the connections are saying right now.

The horse has no trouble staying 8.5f on synthetic - he won a Grade 1 on Cushion track - which is as close to dirt of any synthetic - and he almost beat Jaycito at that distance on dirt despite having every reason in the world to be beaten 20+ lengths.

I've always thought of him as being pretty conservative, but, ok. I guess 1.5% isn't much anyways.

Not at all - he likes to buy the fast cheaply bred ones from the 2yo sales - and he races his horses. When I think of conservative - I think of guys like Shug, Drysdale, Ward, Dickinson when he was around - etc.

Conservative was a poor choice of word. I was trying to say that he, at least back in the day, wasn't one to flip flop, misdirect, etc, when speaking.

Which, come to think of it, is pretty much the opposite of conservative.

He called Backbackbackgone "the best horse I've ever trained" - if he runs well in the SA Derby - his connections are not going to pass up the Ky Derby with a horse he bought for peanuts who has paid for himself about twenty times over.

The weirdest thing about today ... the opening half mile in the Swale was SLOWER than the opening half mile in the Florida Derby - that's almost impossible.

Last year - 20/1 winner Ice Box came from dead last of 11, 29/1 2nd place finisher Pleasant Prince was 9th of 11 early, and 10/1 4th place finisher Lentenor was 10th of 11 early.

So - last year - when the pace totally collapsed in the Fla Derby ... the Swale pace was almost two full seconds faster.

Yeah, it seemed to me that everyone had a severe allergy to the lead, the way the horses were ridden in the Swale.

I thought the runnerup was hurt the most, and that's not my bias speaking.

I think you were right about this the first time

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...kdfws-3rd-pool

You must be relatively new.

I'm almost always right!

Anxiously waiting for Doug's odds update.

i'm waiting for him to tell us uncle mo can beat zenyatta and blame........highest number........lol

You could learn a lot from DrugS. You won't....but you could.

Yeah, I really wish he would stop posting threads with a lot of really interesting and potentially useful information on horse racing and instead follow your lead and make no contribution whatsoever.

If only we could all be so rigid, and boring, as Johnny Myopia here.