Last 15 KY Derby winners at this point

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

I'll do some googling, but no promises. In the meantime, here's an article after the race with some description of the traffic troubles in the race itself.

http://www.heraldleaderphoto.com/der...9-charismatic/

Thanks for posting that piece.

Not taking anything away from Charismatic or Chris Antley, but isn't this a Kentucky Derby story that gets played out a lot? Seemingly dominant (but relatively inexperienced) 3 YOs get rough trips in what is by far the largest field in which they have raced, while the horse and rider who may not be the best but are able to stay out of trouble and race closest to their style are able to pull off an upset. Charismatic had raced more than a dozen times goint into the Derby and was showing improvement in '99. Even though he got caught 5 wide in the first turn and 4 wide in the far turn, he was able to maintain a pace closest to his ideal race, setting up his "perfect" day. Everything came together for him, while the favorites got bumped and shuffled. He proved it was no fluke, going on to win the Preakness, but if the Derby hadn't been such a rough race - 19 horses, no pace - would he have won it? Forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but it seems like in the Derby moreso than other races the winner is more likely the horse that gets the best trip than who is necessarily the best horse.