Last 15 KY Derby winners at this point

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

I'll do some googling, but no promises. In the meantime, here's an article after the race with some description of the traffic troubles in the race itself.

http://www.heraldleaderphoto.com/der...9-charismatic/

Thanks for posting that piece.

Not taking anything away from Charismatic or Chris Antley, but isn't this a Kentucky Derby story that gets played out a lot? Seemingly dominant (but relatively inexperienced) 3 YOs get rough trips in what is by far the largest field in which they have raced, while the horse and rider who may not be the best but are able to stay out of trouble and race closest to their style are able to pull off an upset. Charismatic had raced more than a dozen times goint into the Derby and was showing improvement in '99. Even though he got caught 5 wide in the first turn and 4 wide in the far turn, he was able to maintain a pace closest to his ideal race, setting up his "perfect" day. Everything came together for him, while the favorites got bumped and shuffled. He proved it was no fluke, going on to win the Preakness, but if the Derby hadn't been such a rough race - 19 horses, no pace - would he have won it? Forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but it seems like in the Derby moreso than other races the winner is more likely the horse that gets the best trip than who is necessarily the best horse.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by OldDog

Forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but it seems like in the Derby moreso than other races the winner is more likely the horse that gets the best trip than who is necessarily the best horse.

Obvious, yes, but not any the less true. Every time a columnist starts a lament about why we haven't had a Triple Crown in forever I always think "20 horses in the Kentucky Derby." I'm not saying that's the only reason, and if it were 14 horses we'd have had a bunch of TC winners (though I do think Afleet Alex would have won), but I think it makes luck an even bigger part of the equation.

[Sightseek]

14, 20 or 100 horses -- I don't think Rose was bright enough to give Afleet Alex the ride he needed to win that Derby.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

14, 20 or 100 horses -- I don't think Rose was bright enough to give Afleet Alex the ride he needed to win that Derby.

Obviously.

Or KD on RQ in the Belmont.

OR GS on PG in the Derby.

[NTamm1215]

Rose gets far too much criticism for that Derby ride. He had other rides on Afleet Alex that were worse (BC Juvenile).

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

14, 20 or 100 horses -- I don't think Rose was bright enough to give Afleet Alex the ride he needed to win that Derby.

Heh. I think Rose would have agreed with you as I remember his interview after the Belmont where he was just beating himself up for the Derby.