Last weeks preps ending 3/6.

Grindstone:



Silver Charm:



Real Quiet:



Charismatic:


Fu Peg:



Monarchos:



War Emblem:



Funny Cide:


Smarty Jones:



Giacomo:



Barbaro:



Street Sense:


Big Brown:




Mine That Bird:



Super Saver:

Thanks for making it one post Kasept.

Who was more impossible ... War Emblem, Mine That Bird, or Charismatic?

War Emblem and Charismatic both somehow went into the KY Derby with top last out Beyers ... Mine That Bird went in looking like a 5,000/1 shot.

If Giacomo was part of this class, he'd be the 4th or 5th choice in this round of the future wager.

Where would that put Going Wild & Papi Chullo who beat him in the Sham?

If you took a poll of everyone before the Sham Stakes - I'm pretty sure Giacomo would have been voted the #1 most likely horse to win the Kentucky Derby that year.

Even after his extremely maligned Sham stakes defeat - he was only 25/1 and 26/1 in the futures. In Vegas - I think he was like bet down to 10/1 or 12/1 before the Sham.

I think part of the reason he went off at 50/1 in the Derby was because so many people had future wagers live on him.

25-1 in the Future Wager I think.

The horse that gets lost in the post-script of that year's West Coast horses was Ross McLeod's ill-fated General John B (trained by Roger Stein!). I liked him best of the 4 out of the Santa Anita Derby, but he got sick and never ran again. You remember how everyone maligned the SA Derby was that year? And then Buzzards Bay, Wilko and Giacomo all ran well.. And General John B might have as well.

Buzzards Bay was the most juiced animal EVAH.. He was named the Jeff Mullins Project

Yep. Giacomo was 25/1 in round 1 and 26/1 in round 2 ... both came after his Sham defeat.

The thing about that Santa Anita Derby that year is that no one passed anyone. It was a total merry-go-round race. Mike Smith looked like he was going to make this wide sweeping winning turn move with Giacomo and he was flat as a pancake in the stretch.

Brad Free - and a few other West coast writers basically wrote that Giacomo was obviously the horse you'd want out of that race ... but, if you can't pass a Roger Stein 75/1 shot ... how can you expect to pass them all in the stretch of the Derby?

Real Quiet also looked pretty damn tough to like off an 8th beaten 22 lengths non-effort - as an even money favorite at Golden Gate.

If Borel had ridden either Afleet Alex or Belamy Road - they probably would have been five lengths behind Giacomo early on - and they would have come from 25 back to win by 10.

Did Borel have a mount that year?

Doesnt look like he did
The 131st running of the Kentucky Derby
Horse Jockey Wt. PP 1/4 1/2 3/4 1M Str. Fin. To $2
Giacomo Smith 126 10 18½ 18-2½ 18-1½ 11-hd 6-½ 1-½ 50.30
Closing Argument Velasquez 126 18 5-hd 6-½ 6-hd 4-hd 1-½ 2-½ 71.60
Afleet Alex Rose 126 12 11-hd 11-½ 9-½ 6-1½ 2-1 3-2½ 4.50
Don't Get Mad Baze 126 17 19-6 19-3½ 19-3½ 10-hd 7-½ 4-2¾ 29.20
Buzzards Bay Guidry 126 20 10-½ 10-hd 7-½ 5-½ 5-hd 5-½ 46.30
Wilko Nakatani 126 14 13-½ 14-hd 16-2½ 13-1½ 10-½ 6-no 21.70
Bellamy Road Castellano 126 16 3-½ 5-2 5-2 2-hd 3-hd 7-¾ 2.60
Andromeda's Hero Bejarano 126 2 16-hd 15-2 13-hd 16-2 14-1½ 8-no 57.30
Flower Alley Chavez 126 7 4-hd 3-hd 2-hd 7-1½ 8-1 9-hd 41.30
High Fly Bailey 126 11 6-1 4-1 3-hd 1-hd 4-1 10-nk 7.10
Greeley's Galaxy Desormeaux 126 9 17-1 16-½ 14-hd 8-hd 12-2½ 11-2¼ 21.00
Coin Silver Valenzuela 126 5 14-½ 12-hd 12-1½ 9-2 11-1 12-1¼ 38.60
Greater Good McKee 126 8 20 20 20 17-½ 15-½ 13-¾ 58.40
Noble Causeway Stevens 126 4 12-2 13-2½ 15-hd 12-hd 13-½ 14-2½ 12.30
Sun King Prado 126 3 9-½ 9-hd 8-hd 15-1½ 16-4 15-4 15.70
Spanish Chestnut Bravo 126 13 1-½ 1-1½ 1-1½ 3-hd 9-hd 16-7 71.00
Sort It Out Blanc 126 1 15-½ 17-hd 17-hd 18-4 17-2½ 17-3½ 61.90
Going Wild Valdivia 126 19 2-1 2-1 4-½ 14-hd 18-5½ 18-3½ 59.50
Bandini Velazquez 126 15 7-hd 8-2 11-1½ 20 19-3 19-12 6.80
High Limit Dominguez 126 6 8-2 7-hd 10-3½ 19-hd 20 20 22.50

Time: 22.280, 45.380, 1:09.590, 1:35.880, 2:02.750.

A few months ago, I posted that I was skeptical of Uncle Mo winning the Derby, citing his blow-out debut victory sprinting late last summer. My theory was that in general, 2-year olds who crush the field sprinting at Saratoga or Belmont don't develop into classic-distance horses. But to help Uncle Mo's cause, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and Grindstone all won their debuts by open lengths in a sprint race.

War Emblem looked pretty bad at this point but, no Derby Winners PP's/cut has looked as bad as MTB's.
I will always believe that the Giacomo syndrome kept his odds below 300/1.

I don't think we will ever see a more impossible derby winner in our lifetime.

Silver Charm also won an extremely fast 2yo MSW race at Del Mar going just 5.5fs .. albeit that was his 2nd start.

Giacomo is the only real closer who never showed a lot of early speed at one-time.

Real Quiet was a speed and fade going 5.5 furlongs early on.

Charismatic blew several early leads - including some sprinting.

Monarchos led after a half mile in a very sharp 7f MSW win

Street Sense broke his maiden laying just a half length off of 21.60 and 44.20 fractions sprinting.

Mine That Bird was a multiple stakes winner sprinting at age 2 - and blew a pair of leads at the 1/4 pole in his two preps at Sunland.

Basically - if you haven't shown good early speed at one point ... you'll most likely plod home 3rd or 4th if all goes well. The horses who run 3rd or 4th are often among the last ones to press the reset button.

Why did Charismatic go off at such high odds in the Kentucky Derby showing the improvements that he had made?

I think Borel will continue to be successful in the Derby if he employs the tactics he used on Street Sense and Mine That Bird. With so many hopeless sprinters trying 10f's, any horse with stamina rallying from behind is guaranteed to pass a few.

Which is what kept the very average looking Elite Alex at 30-1 in Future pool 2.

You'd have to compare his PPs to the other contenders that year.

According to the recaps, it was a weird Derby- no pace and a lot of traffic trouble. Clearly a lot of people didn't feel Charismatic was the best horse even after the race- he wasn't the favorite in the Preakness, either.

Looking at Silver Charm's PP's is making me regret not throwing a few bucks The Factor's way at 37-1...