Last 15 KY Derby winners at this point

[lemoncrush]

A few months ago, I posted that I was skeptical of Uncle Mo winning the Derby, citing his blow-out debut victory sprinting late last summer. My theory was that in general, 2-year olds who crush the field sprinting at Saratoga or Belmont don't develop into classic-distance horses. But to help Uncle Mo's cause, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and Grindstone all won their debuts by open lengths in a sprint race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

A few months ago, I posted that I was skeptical of Uncle Mo winning the Derby, citing his blow-out debut victory sprinting late last summer. My theory was that in general, 2-year olds who crush the field sprinting at Saratoga or Belmont don't develop into classic-distance horses. But to help Uncle Mo's cause, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and Grindstone all won their debuts by open lengths in a sprint race.

Silver Charm also won an extremely fast 2yo MSW race at Del Mar going just 5.5fs .. albeit that was his 2nd start.

Giacomo is the only real closer who never showed a lot of early speed at one-time.

Real Quiet was a speed and fade going 5.5 furlongs early on.

Charismatic blew several early leads - including some sprinting.

Monarchos led after a half mile in a very sharp 7f MSW win

Street Sense broke his maiden laying just a half length off of 21.60 and 44.20 fractions sprinting.

Mine That Bird was a multiple stakes winner sprinting at age 2 - and blew a pair of leads at the 1/4 pole in his two preps at Sunland.

Basically - if you haven't shown good early speed at one point ... you'll most likely plod home 3rd or 4th if all goes well. The horses who run 3rd or 4th are often among the last ones to press the reset button.

[OldDog]

Why did Charismatic go off at such high odds in the Kentucky Derby showing the improvements that he had made?

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by OldDog

Why did Charismatic go off at such high odds in the Kentucky Derby showing the improvements that he had made?

You'd have to compare his PPs to the other contenders that year.

According to the recaps, it was a weird Derby- no pace and a lot of traffic trouble. Clearly a lot of people didn't feel Charismatic was the best horse even after the race- he wasn't the favorite in the Preakness, either.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Looking at Silver Charm's PP's is making me regret not throwing a few bucks The Factor's way at 37-1...

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Looking at Silver Charm's PP's is making me regret not throwing a few bucks The Factor's way at 37-1...

Silver Charm's daddy was a G1 winner over 10f by Buckpasser and had already sired a G1 winner over 12f (Forever Silver, Brooklyn H). His dam was a 7-time 2-turn winner by Poker, damsire of Seattle Slew. And the The Factor is bred how?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

War Front's are 15-for-54 (28%) in route races. They are 14-for-109 (13%) in sprint races.

War Front's are also 0-for-36 as first-time starters.

Good luck to anyone who has him pegged as a win early sire of nothing but sprinters. Almost everything of his that has stretched out has improved.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Silver Charm's daddy was a G1 winner over 10f by Buckpasser and had already sired a G1 winner over 12f (Forever Silver, Brooklyn H). His dam was a 7-time 2-turn winner by Poker, damsire of Seattle Slew. And the The Factor is bred how?

The Factor's Grand Sire is Danzig. For me, enough said. War Front was and excellent sprinter but his offspring might carry the Danzig gene further than he did. Soldat (by War Front) was not too shabby going 2 turns. All I was saying is at 37-1 there were worse places to spend a few bucks. Obviously, that is why he 37-1.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

You'd have to compare his PPs to the other contenders that year.

According to the recaps, it was a weird Derby- no pace and a lot of traffic trouble. Clearly a lot of people didn't feel Charismatic was the best horse even after the race- he wasn't the favorite in the Preakness, either.

I'm searching for the PPs for the '99 Derby but can't find them. Any help would be appreciated.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by OldDog

I'm searching for the PPs for the '99 Derby but can't find them. Any help would be appreciated.

Baffert had Excellent Meeting and General Challenge who both took a lot of action. Prime Timber (Lukas?) and Cat Thief did too... so Charismatic was looked at like his third string or so. Plus, Stephen Got Even was in the race, and he was well backed.

And probably more importantly... there was a mutuel field, and Charismatic was not part of it.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Baffert had Excellent Meeting and General Challenge who both took a lot of action. Prime Timber (Lukas?) and Cat Thief did too... so Charismatic was looked at like his third string or so. Plus, Stephen Got Even was in the race, and he was well backed.

And probably more importantly... there was a mutuel field, and Charismatic was not part of it.

Stuck between some rocks and hard place. That helps me to understand it somewhat. I'd still like to see the PPs. Also I couldn't help but notice how many starts Charismatic had had at this point compared to the others that DrugS listed.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by OldDog

I'm searching for the PPs for the '99 Derby but can't find them. Any help would be appreciated.

I'll do some googling, but no promises. In the meantime, here's an article after the race with some description of the traffic troubles in the race itself.

http://www.heraldleaderphoto.com/der...9-charismatic/

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

I'll do some googling, but no promises. In the meantime, here's an article after the race with some description of the traffic troubles in the race itself.

http://www.heraldleaderphoto.com/der...9-charismatic/

Thanks for posting that piece.

Not taking anything away from Charismatic or Chris Antley, but isn't this a Kentucky Derby story that gets played out a lot? Seemingly dominant (but relatively inexperienced) 3 YOs get rough trips in what is by far the largest field in which they have raced, while the horse and rider who may not be the best but are able to stay out of trouble and race closest to their style are able to pull off an upset. Charismatic had raced more than a dozen times goint into the Derby and was showing improvement in '99. Even though he got caught 5 wide in the first turn and 4 wide in the far turn, he was able to maintain a pace closest to his ideal race, setting up his "perfect" day. Everything came together for him, while the favorites got bumped and shuffled. He proved it was no fluke, going on to win the Preakness, but if the Derby hadn't been such a rough race - 19 horses, no pace - would he have won it? Forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but it seems like in the Derby moreso than other races the winner is more likely the horse that gets the best trip than who is necessarily the best horse.

[KirisClown]

Originally Posted by OldDog

Why did Charismatic go off at such high odds in the Kentucky Derby showing the improvements that he had made?

I think it was just such a wide open race that Charismatic simply got lost in the shuffle, outside of winning the Lexington at 12-1 there wasn't much to go on..

Worldly Manner was coming in from Dubai, his Godolphin purchase price, awesome 2yr old form and Bailey riding gave him a lot of attention.

Excellent Meeting/General Challenge entry was pretty imposing on paper..

Adonis has just won the Wood..

Three Ring was the filly coming in off a couple of big wins in Florida..

Stephen Got Even had won the Jim Beam..

Desert Hero had won the San Rafael and was 3rd in the SA Derby..

Answer Lively was the 2yr old champion..

Cat Thief was Lukas/Overbrook and had been just missing in all his preps.

Prime Timber was another Baffert horse, he had won the San Felipe and been second in the SA Derby to General Challenge

First American had just won the Flamingo impressively.

Vicar had won the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby

Menifee had won the Bluegrass

Ecton Park, Lemon Drop Kid, Valhol, Kimberlite Pipe and K One King made up the rest of the field.. between them they had won quite a few stakes as well..

[HaloWishingwell]

Interesting that only two horses on that list had a Grade I victory up to this point.