Hypothetical Derby Trainer Prop Bet

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

DrugSFair.com odds:

Todd Pletcher: 5/2
Bob Baffert: 6/1
Nick Zito: 8/1
Kiaran McLaughlin: 10/1
Bill Mott: 10/1
Ken McPeak: 18/1
Steve Asmussen: 20/1
Kathy Ritvo: 20/1
John Sadler: 25/1
Neil Howard: 30/1
Cannon Shell: 90/1

5/2 on Pletcher is a joke and you obviously aren't thinking clearly.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'd make Uncle Mo either 7/2 or 4/1 right now.

After him - you have what - Stay Thirsty (50/1) Bretheran (50/1) Cal Nation (50/1)

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'd make Uncle Mo either 7/2 or 4/1 right now.

After him - you have what - Stay Thirsty (50/1) Bretheran (50/1) Cal Nation (50/1)

I smell a second bet in 7 hours.

Will you seriously give me 50-1 on Bretheren and Stay Thirsty?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

I smell a second bet in 7 hours.

Will you seriously give me 50-1 on Bretheren and Stay Thirsty?

Bretheren is going to take such an easy path into the KY Derby - and because of his pedigree and connections - he's almost certain to be wildly overbet. It's pretty safe i'll be playing against him in the markets if he wins soft at Tampa.

Stay Thirsty will also be MUCH shorter than 50/1 if he makes the race - but I'd put his true chances at that right now.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Bretheren is going to take such an easy path into the KY Derby - and because of his pedigree and connections - he's almost certain to be wildly overbet. It's pretty safe i'll be playing against him in the markets if he wins soft at Tampa.

Stay Thirsty will also be MUCH shorter than 50/1 if he makes the race - but I'd put his true chances at that right now.

Be kind to Justin, he's not very good at math.

You actually think Stay Thirsty is 2% to win the Derby?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He would seem like a pretty safe bet to make the race. I don't think his Gotham performance was any worse than Super Saver's Tampa Bay Derby return. He'll be ok with any race shape as well.

Basically - he's a safe bet to get in - there will atleast be several others more hopeless than him - he might impove 2nd and 3rd off the layoff ... but 50/1 because he's simply not that good.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He would seem like a pretty safe bet to make the race. I don't think his Gotham performance was any worse than Super Saver's Tampa Bay Derby return. He'll be ok with any race shape as well.

Basically - he's a safe bet to get in - there will atleast be several others more hopeless than him - he might impove 2nd and 3rd off the layoff ... but 50/1 because he's simply not that good.

You're probably right.

He seems hopeless to me but I guess 50:1 is fair.