Hypothetical Derby Trainer Prop Bet

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

I smell a second bet in 7 hours.

Will you seriously give me 50-1 on Bretheren and Stay Thirsty?

Bretheren is going to take such an easy path into the KY Derby - and because of his pedigree and connections - he's almost certain to be wildly overbet. It's pretty safe i'll be playing against him in the markets if he wins soft at Tampa.

Stay Thirsty will also be MUCH shorter than 50/1 if he makes the race - but I'd put his true chances at that right now.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Bretheren is going to take such an easy path into the KY Derby - and because of his pedigree and connections - he's almost certain to be wildly overbet. It's pretty safe i'll be playing against him in the markets if he wins soft at Tampa.

Stay Thirsty will also be MUCH shorter than 50/1 if he makes the race - but I'd put his true chances at that right now.

Be kind to Justin, he's not very good at math.

You actually think Stay Thirsty is 2% to win the Derby?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He would seem like a pretty safe bet to make the race. I don't think his Gotham performance was any worse than Super Saver's Tampa Bay Derby return. He'll be ok with any race shape as well.

Basically - he's a safe bet to get in - there will atleast be several others more hopeless than him - he might impove 2nd and 3rd off the layoff ... but 50/1 because he's simply not that good.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He would seem like a pretty safe bet to make the race. I don't think his Gotham performance was any worse than Super Saver's Tampa Bay Derby return. He'll be ok with any race shape as well.

Basically - he's a safe bet to get in - there will atleast be several others more hopeless than him - he might impove 2nd and 3rd off the layoff ... but 50/1 because he's simply not that good.

You're probably right.

He seems hopeless to me but I guess 50:1 is fair.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're probably right.

He seems hopeless to me but I guess 50:1 is fair.

Backtalk was 20-1 last year. You guys are not seeing this as clearly as you see most things.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

Backtalk was 20-1 last year. You guys are not seeing this as clearly as you see most things.

No, actually it's you that has no idea what he's talking about.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, actually it's you that has no idea what he's talking about.

So you are saying that 5/2 represents the actual odds that should be offered on Pletcher to win the Derby this year?