Breeders Cup Juvenile Subsequent Form

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Believe it or not - only four horses have run back from that race ...

Wasn't there only like 6 horses in the race to begin with?

It gives you an idea of what should be expected of Uncle Mo and Jaycito on Saturday. If any horse had a right to improve - it was Jaycito. He was all over the friggen track.

I think you're being a little too absolute with the "improvement" claim. JP's Gusto and Riveting Reason have raced enough pre-and-post BC to be known quantities. While their Beyer figures may have crept up slightly, I wouldn't hold my breath for further advancement.

Generally speaking, Pletcher 3yos come back with their best stuff right of the bench, if Stay Thirsty's lugging in 89 is the best he can uncorked, that bottle might already be empty (all those puns intended).

I don't even want to discuss Rogue Romance until he actually threatens to reach contention in a race on the main track.

[blackthroatedwind]

I should hope the top 2YOs of a given year improve in subsequent starts.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Wasn't there only like 6 horses in the race to begin with?

10 horse field. The race was over 4 months ago - and only 40% of the field has run back.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think you're being a little too absolute with the "improvement" claim. JP's Gusto and Riveting Reason have raced enough pre-and-post BC to be known quantities. While their Beyer figures may have crept up slightly, I wouldn't hold my breath for further advancement.

Generally speaking, Pletcher 3yos come back with their best stuff right of the bench, if Stay Thirsty's lugging in 89 is the best he can uncorked, that bottle might already be empty (all those puns intended).

I don't even want to discuss Rogue Romance until he actually threatens to reach contention in a race on the main track.

regarding the improvement claim - I only said they "made the kind of improvment you expect from a healthy young colt"

I don't know if I agree that Pletcher's 3yo's "come back with their best stuff right of the bench" .... there was a pretty strong pattern last year of them improving sharply 2nd off the layoff - running about as strong 3rd off the layoff ... and a lot of them fell hard to injury... and the ones that don't rarely get any better and are more likely to go backwards.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I should hope the top 2YOs of a given year improve in subsequent starts.

The healthy ones should anyway.

A LOT of them don't. Especially with fillies.

You had a three year run where the champion 2yo fillies were Tempera, Storm Flag Flying, and Halfbridled. All of them were pretty awesome 2yo fillies whos form took a sharp nose dive.

[blackthroatedwind]

No sane person doubts that if Uncle Mo moves forward, all the other 3YOs are in major trouble. It's a complete mismatch. However, others moving forward doesn't increase the chances of Uncle Mo doing so....or staying sound.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No sane person doubts that if Uncle Mo moves forward, all the other 3YOs are in major trouble. It's a complete mismatch. However, others moving forward doesn't increase the chances of Uncle Mo doing so....or staying sound.

I never said it did.

The whole point - and I know it was kind of a MOTO one - was "It gives you an idea of what should be expected of Uncle Mo and Jaycito on Saturday." ... if they are healthy.

I say that because there have been some questions and rumors surrounding the health of both horses.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The finalists for the '2010 Todd Pletcher Profile in Equine Courage' award would have to be Quality Road, Life At Ten, and Malibu Prayer.

While the life was sucked out of them - at least they were the trio that stood up to his stuff all year and stayed sound enough to make the Breeders Cup.

QR and Malibu Prayer both ran about 60 Beyers in the BC - and Life At Ten ran the best of the trio because at least she had a visable excuse.

Pletcher had no other runners in the Distaff, Classic, Sprint, BC Turf, or BC Mile. Just those three. Quality Road last by a mile. Life At Ten and Malibu Prayer a long way behind everyone else in the Distaff.

They were certainly the stables warriors.

Devil May Care, Eskendreya, Super Saver, Discreetly Mine, Battle Plan, Understatement, etc etc etc all fell from the riggors.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The finalists for the '2010 Todd Pletcher Profile in Equine/Handicapper Courage' award would have to be Quality Road, Life At Ten, and Malibu Prayer.

Cant forget all the $ burned on blind faith.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Generally speaking, Pletcher 3yos come back with their best stuff right of the bench.

Here was a picture I posted in a thread I started about Super Saver last year. At the time - Super Saver was 3rd in the Tampa Derby to Oddyseus and Schoolyard Dreams - first off the layoff - without any excuse.

These are all Todd Pletcher trained horses improving sharply 2nd off the layoff last winter.




In a lot of cases ... you'd get a blah race 1st off the layoff ... followed by a huge race 2nd off the layoff. The 3rd race off the layoff was typically also a strong one.

Most of these horses got injured or ran like the life had been sucked out of them by the end of the season. Super Saver obviously included.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In a lot of cases ... you'd get a blah race 1st off the layoff ... followed by a huge race 2nd off the layoff. The 3rd race off the layoff was typically also a strong one.

Nice collection of older horses and grass mares. Any 3yos with 2yo form on dirt besides Eskendereya?

I think you made a big stink about Devil May Care getting ear-twitched in the gate at FG and IIRC the pseudo-sprinter Discreetly Mine was banged around on the inside in the sloppy Spectacular Bid, so I'm withdrawing those from consideration.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Nice collection of older horses and grass mares. Any 3yos with 2yo form on dirt besides Eskendereya?

Of the big names ... Super Saver and Mission Impaz off the top of my head ... to go along with Esk, Devil May Care, and Discreetly Mine

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Of the big names ... Super Saver and Mission Impaz off the top of my head ... to go along with Esk, Devil May Care, and Discreetly Mine

Well, the difference with Stay Thirsty is that he showed up with a winning effort, but didn't run particularly fast. I take that as a sign that he's more or less at his ceiling. Aside from Eskendereya, the others you mentioned had an array of excuses (eg off track, gate trouble, long layoffs, etc.) in their comebacks.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Here was a picture I posted in a thread I started about Super Saver last year. At the time - Super Saver was 3rd in the Tampa Derby to Oddyseus and Schoolyard Dreams - first off the layoff - without any excuse.

These are all Todd Pletcher trained horses improving sharply 2nd off the layoff last winter.




In a lot of cases ... you'd get a blah race 1st off the layoff ... followed by a huge race 2nd off the layoff. The 3rd race off the layoff was typically also a strong one.

Most of these horses got injured or ran like the life had been sucked out of them by the end of the season. Super Saver obviously included.

R Heat Lightning followed the same pattern this year.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Munnings - his form isn't pictured above - probably fell off sharper than any of the Pletcher's last year.

He looked promising early on in the season - he was mercifully retired in the summer after running Beyers of 37 and a perfect trip 52 in the Salvator Mile.