2/19- (SA): San Luis Obispo, San Carlos (G2's); San Vincente (G2)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

They did crawl at the end and Sway Away got a nice setup. But I think it's the kind of race he'll get a lot out of. His trainer was 6% off this type of layoff the last 5 years, with an ROI of $0.73. He showed enough speed as a 2 year old to think he'll be able to stay a lot closer than he did today as the distances increase and if we're talking about the Derby, he's the one I want out of the race.

The Factor is obviously talented, but it's hard for me to believe he's going to stretch out much farther effectively and how much longer is Baffert going to be able to keep him sound?

All of facebook was in love with Sway Away's race - I don't disagree that he could move forward .. but closing sprinters with perfect setups have a very poor record in Derby preps - where The Factor - if he stays healthy - will almost be assured of cakewalks in his final preps.

A horse like Giacomo was everybody's standout #1 Derby prospect in California going into his 3yo year. He got wired by Going Wild at 9fs. Got wired badly by Consolidator going 8.5fs. And the Santa Anita Derby was a merry-go-round race with Roger Stein's General John B 2nd at like 87/1.

A horse like Lookin At Lucky didn't even belong on the same racetrack with Sidney's Candy at 8.5 and 9fs last year - everyone wants to finish in those races. If The Factor is healthy - he could Balto Star them in his next two

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

All of facebook was in love with Sway Away's race - I don't disagree that he could move forward .. but closing sprinters with perfect setups have a very poor record in Derby preps - where The Factor - if he stays healthy - will almost be assured of cakewalks in his final preps.

I don't care about Facebook or the other stuff. If you said I had to bet The Factor or Sway Away in the Derby, I'm betting Sway Away.

Bonde isn't known for having them ready off the shelf. It was his first start in 6 months. He finished well enough to think he'll get a lot out of the race. He has more speed than he showed today...at least he did last year and I think he'll be more involved early next time.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

If you said I had to bet The Factor or Sway Away in the Derby, I'm betting Sway Away.

Why in the hell would you want to bet on either of them in the Derby?

Sway Away hasn't even attempted to route yet - he's basically a very lightly raced closing sprinter with a little dressed up form now - who is way behind in the game and has to play catch up.

Maybe he really is a true router all along ... certainly possible... but why not let him prove it first next time out - while he's likely going to be wildly overbet.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why in the hell would you want to bet on either of them in the Derby?

Sway Away hasn't even attempted to route yet - he's basically a very lightly raced closing sprinter with a little dressed up form now - who is way behind in the game and has to play catch up.

Maybe he really is a true router all along ... certainly possible... but why not let him prove it first next time out - while he's likely going to be wildly overbet.

Go post a thread about the wind in 1912.

I said if I had to choose between the two. Not that I want to bet either one.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I said if I had to choose between the two. Not that I want to bet either one.

Why would you have to choose between the two now for a race in May?

Are they skipping all of their remaining preps and running in the Ky Derby next time out?

This is basically why winning 3yo fantasy contests against fields of over 2k people is a peice of cake ... people make horrible strategic blunders trying to guess what will happen 3 months from now and forgetting 4 weeks from now is far more important.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why would you have to choose between the two now for a race in May?

Are they skipping all of their remaining preps and running in the Ky Derby next time out?

This is basically why winning 3yo fantasy contests against fields of over 2k people is a peice of cake ... people make horrible strategic blunders trying to guess what will happen 3 months from now and forgetting 4 weeks from now is far more important.

Considering he entered the race with two career starts off a six month layoff Sway Away ran a solid race. Sure, the pace was fast but that track is so incredibly tilted against closers.

Does he have a lot to prove still? Absolutely but he surely gained a lot from today's race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Considering he entered the race with two career starts off a six month layoff Sway Away ran a solid race. Sure, the pace was fast but that track is so incredibly tilted against closers.

Does he have a lot to prove still? Absolutely but he surely gained a lot from today's race.

He looked like the right horse to bet on paper in that race. I was certainly going to pick him to beat The Factor on Kasept's show Friday.

I'm not sure he did anything he shouldn't have done in that race today - and I go on facebook and read a lot of people drooling over his "great" performance today.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Considering he entered the race with two career starts off a six month layoff Sway Away ran a solid race. Sure, the pace was fast but that track is so incredibly tilted against closers.

Does he have a lot to prove still? Absolutely but he surely gained a lot from today's race.

The Factor entered the race off of a 2 month layoff. With 3 works in those 2 months. Sway Away had 6 workouts since The Factors 1st of 3. Not to mention Sway Away has been pointing to this race since Thanksgiving, if not before that. The Factor was just confirmed for the race less then a week ago because of foot problems.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why would you have to choose between the two now for a race in May?

Are they skipping all of their remaining preps and running in the Ky Derby next time out?

This is basically why winning 3yo fantasy contests against fields of over 2k people is a peice of cake ... people make horrible strategic blunders trying to guess what will happen 3 months from now and forgetting 4 weeks from now is far more important.

I should have known this was all a way of you to mention the fantasy nonsense. You got me. Well done.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I should have known this was all a way of you to mention the fantasy nonsense. You got me. Well done.

you turned it into a fantasy discussion....unless PG 1985 did before you - which I don't know - because I didn't read his post. But, either way, you should know that you want neither of these horses for the Derby right now.