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#1
01-15-2011, 07:30 AM
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1/15: Aqueduct (Late P4); Gulfstream (5th-10th)
Another few bonanza prices at Gulfstream Friday creates added excitement to Saturday's undertaking, with $50k+ carryovers in both the Rainbow 6 and P5. Didn't cash anything worthwhile Friday, but have no complaint with the fence-swinging tries that were attempted given the crazy results through the middle portion of the slate. Nightcap play Molly Malone arrived a stride too late under Prado at 30-1, while nutty overlay In Speight of It looked a winner 50 yards out at 35-1 (12-1 ML), only to be passed in the last two jumps by the day's most outrageous overlay, 70-1 Doc Green.
Other price punts Vapor Trace and Smarty Louie were more futile, but as Mike Welsch agreed on ATR, it was a good day to try for less predictable outcomes. Much like the Ron Spatz $60 winner Thursday, Friday's wild $140 horse from Edwin Vasquez was not as impossible as one would be led to believe. Though Vasquez himself hasn't been saddling horses since 2008, Doc Green had just run a solid figure race at Calder mid-December and signaled his sharpness in a Best of 29 half mile bullet (:48.2) across town 10 days ago. The most maddening part of his run to the wire was of course that it came at the expense of In Speight of It, whom I played, and whom Doc Green had trailed in that CRC plater 12/18. The exacta of them in this spot returned more than $1,600 ($2). Point is, as stressed Friday, winning at Gulfstream is very hard right now with every horse needing to be carefully considered and then watched on the board for possible monster overlays. There are simply too many runners in these fields for the public to absorb, and a watchful eye and patient hand will bring down big game along the way. There will be opportunities today or any time over this three day racing weekend! AQUEDUCT POST-SCRATCHES 6th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) SCR #'s 4 & 5 Best Value: #2 Zone Breaker 8-1 2nd Next Best: #7 Zen Village 3-1 9th Exotics Use: #6 Lord Jet 20-1 3rd Super Add: #11 Z Bug 5-1 5th 7th: CLM, 4+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super) SCR #'s 1 & 4 Most Likely: #5 Run to Grand Ave. 5-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Magic Max 6-1 6th Best Value: #10 Talk to Nick 10-1 5th Super Add: #3 Brocket Man 10-1 2nd 8th: 92nd Evening Attire, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Arson Squad 8-5 3rd Next Best: #3 Alma d'Oro 3-1 2nd Best Value: #4 Goombada Guska 5-1 4th 9th: NY-MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (Super) Most Likely: #12 Dirt Track Demon 3-1 2nd Best Value: #7 Bill Senor 8-1 3rd Next Best: #4 Porcello 5-2 WON ($6.00) Super Add: #8 Neversaywhen 10-1 4th <$50 P4 Play: 6: 2-6-7 7: 5 8: 2-3-4-5 9: 4-7-8-12 3x1x4x4 = $48 GULFSTREAM POST-SCRATCHES $50k P6 & $53k P5 Carryovers.. 5th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Important looking group of Maidens from impressive set of sires, dams and connections.. Most Likely: #4 Arch Traveler 3-1 3rd Best Value: #6 Break Up the Game 8-1 4th Next Best: #5 Katz My Song 6-1 8th Exotics Use: #1 King Alpha 12-1 6th 6th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #3 Church Service 8-1 7th Next Best: #9 Stevil 3-1 10th Exotics Use: #6 Tastefully Smart 5-1 6th Super Add: #4 SCR (11:43pm) 7th: 56th Mr. Prospector (G3), 4+, Most Likely: #6 Big Drama 4-5 WON ($3.00) Best Value: #4 Peace at Dawn 8-1 4th Next Best: #1 Custom for Carlos 2-1 2nd Super Add: #3 Taqarub 10-1 5th 8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 9f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super) I think the top below have a little distance between themselves and the next set of win-eligible types, but if it isn't going to be one of them, it could be any of another half dozen.. Most Likely: #2 Sr. Henry 4-1 5th Best Value: #3 Uncle Indy 6-1 3rd Next Best: #13 Dr. Smarty Jack 10-1 2nd Super Add: #7 Lejadami 12-1 12th 9th: 29th Sugar Swirl (G3), F&M-4+, 6f (DD, Super) Tough group to get a handle on with variety of layoffs and 2nd/break a major portion of the equation.. Most Likely: #3 Jessica is Back 4-1 - Next Best: #6 Tar Heel Mom 5-1 WON ($7.00) Best Value: #7 Ms. Vanenzza 12-1 3rd Super Add: #10 Hilda's Passion 3-1 2nd 10th: MSW, 4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (Super) #15 (AE) Hyper (5-1) a danger should he draw in.. Most Likely: #2 Gathering Cloud 4-1 Best Value: #6 Annawon 15-1 Next Best: #1 Santa 5-2 Super Add: #3 Guns and Religion 10-1 <$20 P6 Play: 5: 4-6 6: 2-3-4/SCR-6-9 7: 6 8: 2-3 9: 3-6-7 10: 1-2-6 2x5x1x2x3x3 = 180 x .10 = $18.00 <$50 P5 Play: 6: 2-3-4/SCR-6-9 7: 6 8: 2-3 9: 3-6-7 10: 1-2-6 5x1x2x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45 <$75 P4 Play: 7: 6 8: 2-3-7-8-11-13 9: 1-3-5-6-7-10 10: 1-2-6-10 1x6x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 01-15-2011 at 04:33 PM. 
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#2
01-15-2011, 10:13 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 01-15-2011 at 10:24 AM.
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#3
01-15-2011, 10:28 AM
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Note that #13 Dr. Smarty Jack (10-1) DRAWS IN to the GP 8th. Retains Trujillo (who was named on Silver Eagle as well) and is likely to find good early forward position with little speed to his inside. Not without chance and certainly a nice addition to exotic tix at the very least at double digit odds...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
01-15-2011, 01:18 PM
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Quote:
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Good Luck......and may a Derby Trailer lead the way to the window! Ed
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#6
01-15-2011, 02:31 PM
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Quote:
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#7
01-15-2011, 03:38 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#8
01-15-2011, 04:40 PM
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P5 pays $4,200
P6 pays $4,850 (6 of 6) Carryover: $73,357
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
01-15-2011, 04:45 PM
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jeez that pick 6 was hittable singling the big drama...never would have thought it would pay 4k..
i had 4/5 in the pick 5...left the 11 off in the 6th
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