Derby Trail Forums - 1/15: Aqueduct (Late P4); Gulfstream (5th-10th)

Another few bonanza prices at Gulfstream Friday creates added excitement to Saturday's undertaking, with $50k+ carryovers in both the Rainbow 6 and P5. Didn't cash anything worthwhile Friday, but have no complaint with the fence-swinging tries that were attempted given the crazy results through the middle portion of the slate. Nightcap play Molly Malone arrived a stride too late under Prado at 30-1, while nutty overlay In Speight of It looked a winner 50 yards out at 35-1 (12-1 ML), only to be passed in the last two jumps by the day's most outrageous overlay, 70-1 Doc Green.

Other price punts Vapor Trace and Smarty Louie were more futile, but as Mike Welsch agreed on ATR, it was a good day to try for less predictable outcomes. Much like the Ron Spatz $60 winner Thursday, Friday's wild $140 horse from Edwin Vasquez was not as impossible as one would be led to believe. Though Vasquez himself hasn't been saddling horses since 2008, Doc Green had just run a solid figure race at Calder mid-December and signaled his sharpness in a Best of 29 half mile bullet (:48.2) across town 10 days ago. The most maddening part of his run to the wire was of course that it came at the expense of In Speight of It, whom I played, and whom Doc Green had trailed in that CRC plater 12/18. The exacta of them in this spot returned more than $1,600 ($2).

Point is, as stressed Friday, winning at Gulfstream is very hard right now with every horse needing to be carefully considered and then watched on the board for possible monster overlays. There are simply too many runners in these fields for the public to absorb, and a watchful eye and patient hand will bring down big game along the way. There will be opportunities today or any time over this three day racing weekend!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

SCR #'s 4 & 5

Best Value: #2 Zone Breaker 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Zen Village 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Lord Jet 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Z Bug 5-1 5th

7th: CLM, 4+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

SCR #'s 1 & 4

Most Likely: #5 Run to Grand Ave. 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Magic Max 6-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Talk to Nick 10-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Brocket Man 10-1 2nd

8th: 92nd Evening Attire, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Arson Squad 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Alma d'Oro 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Goombada Guska 5-1 4th

9th: NY-MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #12 Dirt Track Demon 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Bill Senor 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Porcello 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #8 Neversaywhen 10-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-6-7
7: 5
8: 2-3-4-5
9: 4-7-8-12

3x1x4x4 = $48

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

$50k P6 & $53k P5 Carryovers..

5th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Important looking group of Maidens from impressive set of sires, dams and connections..

Most Likely: #4 Arch Traveler 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Break Up the Game 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Katz My Song 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 King Alpha 12-1 6th

6th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Church Service 8-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Stevil 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Tastefully Smart 5-1 6th
Super Add: #4 SCR (11:43pm)

7th: 56th Mr. Prospector (G3), 4+,

Most Likely: #6 Big Drama 4-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #4 Peace at Dawn 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Custom for Carlos 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Taqarub 10-1 5th

8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 9f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

I think the top below have a little distance between themselves and the next set of win-eligible types, but if it isn't going to be one of them, it could be any of another half dozen..

Most Likely: #2 Sr. Henry 4-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Uncle Indy 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #13 Dr. Smarty Jack 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Lejadami 12-1 12th

9th: 29th Sugar Swirl (G3), F&M-4+, 6f (DD, Super)

Tough group to get a handle on with variety of layoffs and 2nd/break a major portion of the equation..

Most Likely: #3 Jessica is Back 4-1 -
Next Best: #6 Tar Heel Mom 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #7 Ms. Vanenzza 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Hilda's Passion 3-1 2nd

10th: MSW, 4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (Super)

#15 (AE) Hyper (5-1) a danger should he draw in..

Most Likely: #2 Gathering Cloud 4-1
Best Value: #6 Annawon 15-1
Next Best: #1 Santa 5-2
Super Add: #3 Guns and Religion 10-1

<$20 P6 Play:

5: 4-6
6: 2-3-4/SCR-6-9
7: 6
8: 2-3
9: 3-6-7
10: 1-2-6

2x5x1x2x3x3 = 180 x .10 = $18.00

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 2-3-4/SCR-6-9
7: 6
8: 2-3
9: 3-6-7
10: 1-2-6

5x1x2x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 6
8: 2-3-7-8-11-13
9: 1-3-5-6-7-10
10: 1-2-6-10

1x6x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve