12/26 (SA): Malibu, La Brea (G1's); Beaufort (G2); CA Champion (R)

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by merasmag

guess u haven't been watchin his works...
whoops...ive said 2 much already!

To tack on to my earlier post (on another thread) regarding Setsuko:

He's also eligible for a first-condition allowance, making this entry in a Grade 1 a pretty bold move. There was a two-turn allowance the 2nd to last day at HP (won by Tweebster) he could have started in. Furthermore, having started favorite in the Crown Royal Turf on Kentucky Oaks Day and with a solid effort on turf previously, he also could have shown up in the Sir Beaufort.

Again, he hasn't shown sprint speed previously (though his bottom side is loaded with it--Souvenir Copy, Gold Tribute, Doneraile Court), so this has the look of merely a tune-up race and he'd need a total meltdown to get it done. Noble's Promise and Caracortado should get the jump on him and be tough to run down.

Regardless of the outcome in the Malibu, hopefully he's improved from the spring and will be a presence in the handicap ranks next year.

[letswastemoney]

Anyone have thoughts on Twirling Candy?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Anyone have thoughts on Twirling Candy?

Most likely winner. 2 horse race, him and the 2/2 freaky Baffert.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Anyone have thoughts on Twirling Candy?

Seems a better fit in the Sir Beaufort (owns two turf stakes victories already).

I don't think the cutback helps him as he seems to be a frontrunning type. Having to lock horns with top class sprinter Smiling Tiger (who has faced his elders with great success in his last 4 starts--all at the top level) and perhaps Alcindor seems like a recipe for another brick wall collision midstretch.

[RockHardTen1985]

The cutback is exactly what he needs. He will sit just off the pace as the draw is perfect for him. Unless Alcindor is a total freak I think he wins.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

The cutback is exactly what he needs. He will sit just off the pace as the draw is perfect for him. Unless Alcindor is a total freak I think he wins.

Like I said, I'm not convinced he'll sit just off the pace. He's got a ridiculously fast work under his belt, he's relatively fresh, comes from a barn that basically specializes in sprinters. I think he'll be too close.

I agree he could contend if he settles early. But why are Caracortado and Noble's Promise hopeless, as they are certain to get the trip you envision for Twirling Candy, and have already benefitted from cutting back in their most recent starts? Certainly the latter is much more proven at the top level than Twirling Candy.

[hockey2315]

How can Twirling Candy not be an underlay?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

How can Twirling Candy not be an underlay?

Well Baffert, Steve A, Mcpeek and the BC sprint horse.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

How can Twirling Candy not be an underlay?

It's going to be interesting to see how Sadler's horses do on dirt right off the bat. He had little success shipping to tracks with dirt in stakes races over the last few years (1-14 in graded stakes, 1-13 in non-graded stakes) but of course, now they're in his backyard.

I'm going to bet against Twirling Candy. He became the ultimate California hype horse and is going to continue to be overbet because of it. Two romping wins against horrible turf horses doesn't make him a Grade I dirt horse, but we'll see.

Sidney's Candy is going to have to be awfully short to lose the Sir Beaufort. Hopefully after he wins people can start talking about how he reminds them of Lure again.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Seems a better fit in the Sir Beaufort (owns two turf stakes victories already).

I don't think the cutback helps him as he seems to be a frontrunning type. Having to lock horns with top class sprinter Smiling Tiger (who has faced his elders with great success in his last 4 starts--all at the top level) and perhaps Alcindor seems like a recipe for another brick wall collision midstretch.

Nice call for a change..Stick to needles

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Nice call for a change..Stick to needles

Whatever Freddy. You laughed at me too when I said Twirling Candy would tank in the Goodwood and would appear in the Malibu next time out.

For the record, he probably would have won the lowly Sir Beaufort as well if Sadler swapped those two colts.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Whatever Freddy. You laughed at me too when I said Twirling Candy would tank in the Goodwood and would appear in the Malibu next time out.

For the record, he probably would have won the lowly Sir Beaufort as well if Sadler swapped those two colts.

I think the trip,ride and jockey did him in in the Goodwood.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I think the trip,ride and jockey did him in in the Goodwood.

Elaborate please. I don't really remember the race.

He settled fine early as you expected cutting back. Not sure he'll settle as well in a route, particularly in a typical CA graded stakes with a short field.

We'll see what he can do around two turns again in the San Fernando, Strub, and Big Cap (he should start in at least one of those).