12/26 (SA): Malibu, La Brea (G1's); Beaufort (G2); CA Champion (R)

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Anyone have thoughts on Twirling Candy?

Seems a better fit in the Sir Beaufort (owns two turf stakes victories already).

I don't think the cutback helps him as he seems to be a frontrunning type. Having to lock horns with top class sprinter Smiling Tiger (who has faced his elders with great success in his last 4 starts--all at the top level) and perhaps Alcindor seems like a recipe for another brick wall collision midstretch.

[RockHardTen1985]

The cutback is exactly what he needs. He will sit just off the pace as the draw is perfect for him. Unless Alcindor is a total freak I think he wins.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

The cutback is exactly what he needs. He will sit just off the pace as the draw is perfect for him. Unless Alcindor is a total freak I think he wins.

Like I said, I'm not convinced he'll sit just off the pace. He's got a ridiculously fast work under his belt, he's relatively fresh, comes from a barn that basically specializes in sprinters. I think he'll be too close.

I agree he could contend if he settles early. But why are Caracortado and Noble's Promise hopeless, as they are certain to get the trip you envision for Twirling Candy, and have already benefitted from cutting back in their most recent starts? Certainly the latter is much more proven at the top level than Twirling Candy.

[hockey2315]

How can Twirling Candy not be an underlay?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

How can Twirling Candy not be an underlay?

Well Baffert, Steve A, Mcpeek and the BC sprint horse.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Well Baffert, Steve A, Mcpeek and the BC sprint horse.

This horse was 3/5 in the Goodwood. . . Maybe the mania has worn off, but I doubt it. Noble's Promise should be the value, but I'm not sure how high his price can really be.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

This horse was 3/5 in the Goodwood. . . Maybe the mania has worn off, but I doubt it. Noble's Promise should be the value, but I'm not sure how high his price can really be.

NP is 3-1 or less.
What is fair on TC and Alcindor?
The Goodwood was horrible and he was the now horse then. The now horse now feels like Alcindor or NP.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

How can Twirling Candy not be an underlay?

It's going to be interesting to see how Sadler's horses do on dirt right off the bat. He had little success shipping to tracks with dirt in stakes races over the last few years (1-14 in graded stakes, 1-13 in non-graded stakes) but of course, now they're in his backyard.

I'm going to bet against Twirling Candy. He became the ultimate California hype horse and is going to continue to be overbet because of it. Two romping wins against horrible turf horses doesn't make him a Grade I dirt horse, but we'll see.

Sidney's Candy is going to have to be awfully short to lose the Sir Beaufort. Hopefully after he wins people can start talking about how he reminds them of Lure again.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It's going to be interesting to see how Sadler's horses do on dirt right off the bat. He had little success shipping to tracks with dirt in stakes races over the last few years (1-14 in graded stakes, 1-13 in non-graded stakes) but of course, now they're in his backyard.

I'm going to bet against Twirling Candy. He became the ultimate California hype horse and is going to continue to be overbet because of it. Two romping wins against horrible turf horses doesn't make him a Grade I dirt horse, but we'll see.

Sidney's Candy is going to have to be awfully short to lose the Sir Beaufort. Hopefully after he wins people can start talking about how he reminds them of Lure again.

Who are you using against Twirling Candy?
I still cant find anyone to beat Sidneys.

[alysheba4]

N.P and bogie, santa anita has taken a foot of rain the last 6 days.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It's going to be interesting to see how Sadler's horses do on dirt right off the bat. He had little success shipping to tracks with dirt in stakes races over the last few years (1-14 in graded stakes, 1-13 in non-graded stakes) but of course, now they're in his backyard.

I'm going to bet against Twirling Candy. He became the ultimate California hype horse and is going to continue to be overbet because of it. Two romping wins against horrible turf horses doesn't make him a Grade I dirt horse, but we'll see.

Sidney's Candy is going to have to be awfully short to lose the Sir Beaufort. Hopefully after he wins people can start talking about how he reminds them of Lure again.

Sadler horse's seem to be fine of dirt...........

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Seems a better fit in the Sir Beaufort (owns two turf stakes victories already).

I don't think the cutback helps him as he seems to be a frontrunning type. Having to lock horns with top class sprinter Smiling Tiger (who has faced his elders with great success in his last 4 starts--all at the top level) and perhaps Alcindor seems like a recipe for another brick wall collision midstretch.

Nice call for a change..Stick to needles

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Nice call for a change..Stick to needles

Whatever Freddy. You laughed at me too when I said Twirling Candy would tank in the Goodwood and would appear in the Malibu next time out.

For the record, he probably would have won the lowly Sir Beaufort as well if Sadler swapped those two colts.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Whatever Freddy. You laughed at me too when I said Twirling Candy would tank in the Goodwood and would appear in the Malibu next time out.

For the record, he probably would have won the lowly Sir Beaufort as well if Sadler swapped those two colts.

I think the trip,ride and jockey did him in in the Goodwood.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I think the trip,ride and jockey did him in in the Goodwood.

Elaborate please. I don't really remember the race.

He settled fine early as you expected cutting back. Not sure he'll settle as well in a route, particularly in a typical CA graded stakes with a short field.

We'll see what he can do around two turns again in the San Fernando, Strub, and Big Cap (he should start in at least one of those).