Do you think this is a really nice crop of 2 year olds?

[Linny]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I don't think trainers are that literal, to worry about races as "predictors" to the point that they would avoid running in a particular race, save for the genius Godolphin group and their laughable Ruler's Court debacle.

Anyways, you're mistaken about the BC Juvenile. Spend A Buck, Tank's Prospect, Chief's Crown (84); Danzig Connection (85); Alysheba, Bet Twice, Gulch (86); Easy Goer (88); Go And Go, Pleasant Tap (89); Best Pal (90); Pine Bluff, Dance Floor (91); Sea Hero (92); Tabasco Cat, Blumin Affair (93); Timber Country, Tejano Run (94); Editor's Note (95); Lemon Drop Kid, Cat Thief (98); Point Given, AP Valentine (00); Afleet Alex (04); Street Sense (06); Mine That Bird, Pioneerof The Nile (08); Lookin At Lucky (09). All Classic winners or Classic-placed. 17 of 25 Juveniles have produced at least one Classic winner.

To Honor And Serve had but a maiden win to his credit. He simply didn't have the credentials to take a shot at the BC.

I should have said "winning the Juvenile" is not a predictor of 3yo success. There has clearly been a decrease in the top to bottom quality of the BCJ since 2000. If you are not willing to go all out to win the BCJ, to some it might be better to look for other routes.
Few potential classic colts race before mid August. To Honor and Serve is typical. He debuted near the end of Saratoga and since he didn't win, his connections didn't see fit to try stakes as the Champagne is all that was available in NY. They got him his maiden win but by then it was too late to try the BC and why should they take a maiden winner and toss him to Uncle Mo and Boys at Toscanova and the better colts from Cali?
More and more "potential classic colts" are being handled this way. Ten years ago everyone was agog at Drysdale pointing to the Derby with FuPeg when he didn't break his maiden 'til Santa Anita. Now we're comfortable with the idea that the Derby or Preakness winner might not have ever raced yet.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Linny

There has clearly been a decrease in the top to bottom quality of the BCJ since 2000.

Not really. In addition to the classic colts: Macho Again, Street Cry, Burning Roma, City Zip, Scorpion, Dollar Bill, Noverre, Yonaguska (00); Repent, Publication, Came Home, Essence Of Dubai (01); Kafwain, Hold That Tiger, Zavata, Wando, Toccet (02); Sun King, Consolidator, Roman Ruler (04); Henny Hughes, Brother Derek, Private Vow (05); Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Scat Daddy, Stormello, King Of The Roxy, Teuflesberg (06); Pyro, Kodiak Kowboy, Tale Of Ekati (07); Munnings (08); Eskendereya, D'Funnybone (09) all came out to win Grade 1 or Grade 2 races subsequent to the Juvenile. Even the lowly '03 Juvenile had eventual Grade 1 turf horse Relaxed Gesture.

Certainly in the last few years some colts and fillies have bucked tradition (eg Curlin, Big Brown, Bernardini, Rags To Riches) but I hardly think it was necessarily by design. Physical issues seemed to hold those types back more than anything.

Going by this year's waif-like BC Juvenile, your theory would seem more sound. But if trainers were really "holding back" then you'd anticipate that races like the Remsen and Kentucky Jockey Club would have been deep, contentious races. That wasn't the case.

Instead, it looks like it will simply be a lean year. The reason for the odd campaigning this year by certain trainers (Pletcher, Asmussen, Dutrow) was probably a consequence of distinct physical problems with individual horses (Kantharos, perhaps Boys Of Toscanova), not an attempt to get to the Classics (8 months later) in a new, unorthodox manner.

[smartbid09]

Let's Not forget that Frankel could be "one of the ones" so the Europeans hopefully will have a new super star to enjoy.... hopefully....

[smartbid09]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Instead, it looks like it will simply be a lean year. The reason for the odd campaigning this year by certain trainers (Pletcher, Asmussen, Dutrow) was probably a consequence of distinct physical problems with individual horses (Kantharos, perhaps Boys Of Toscanova), not an attempt to get to the Classics (8 months later) in a new, unorthodox manner.

Rollo. Is there rumor of something wrong with boys? I was unaware of this...

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by smartbid09

Rollo. Is there rumor of something wrong with boys? I was unaware of this...

Purely speculation on my part.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Going by this year's waif-like BC Juvenile, your theory would seem more sound. But if trainers were really "holding back" then you'd anticipate that races like the Remsen and Kentucky Jockey Club would have been deep, contentious races. That wasn't the case.

Waif-like??

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Waif-like??

I used "light" earlier, so I didn't want to repeat myself.