Do you think this is a really nice crop of 2 year olds?

[Linny]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

There might be some extraordinary talents in this crop, but overall the group seems anemic.

That could have been the lightest BC Juvenile in history in terms of depth.

The Champagne had a 5-horse field with an odds-on colt with but a maiden win.

The Hopeful had a 4-horse field.

The Saratoga Special had a short field and the winner broke down soon after.

The top colt at West (JPs Gusto) has the classic look of an early season 2yo that doesn't train on. The Hollywood Futurity looks like a free-for-all.

To Honor And Serve seems like the only stakes winner that will be a legitimate Derby candidate.

I think that the way the leading candidates in each barn are handled has changed and the Champage and the BCJ are proof. In the early years of the BC, 2yo's continued to campaign as they always had. Big outfits wanted their 2yo's to break their maiden before the summer meets at Saratoga and Del Mar so they'd shoot for the prominent stakes there. Then they'd run twice at Belmont in the fall (Futurity, Champage) then the best head to the BCJ.
Now it's a different game. Those colts that trainers see has 'classic types" are held out 'til Labor Day weekend (or nearly so) and get one race at Belmont (Champagne) then of the BCJ. Since the BCJ has proven such a poor predictor of success at 3, alot of folks are just skipping it (To Honor and Serve) and looking for alternatives. With an Uncle Mo looming over the BCJ, why not try for big money at Delta or Remington before testing your colt. After all, recent history has shown that leading babies flatten out before the Derby. Why not get experience over the track in the KYJC or try 9f in the Remsen? Those races wont get you an Eclipse but the Juvie Awards have (of late) been like the kiss of death .

As for this crop, I think it's a good one. As noted above, alot of babies have run big figs. Does that means they will all stay sound and hit Louisville ready to run a 120 on the first Saturday of May? No, but it means there is some talent out there. Remember too that those babies toiling earning 80-85 figs may have plenty of room to improve. This time a few years ago none of us had heard of Curlin and next year's Derby winner may as yet be unstarted or have just a poor maiden loss to his name.