The Value of leading at the 1st call on dirt

[Betsy]

I get that any horse on an easy lead will be at his best, but I don't get how taking him off the pace will make him a worse horse. For 3 year olds and up, they'd really better be able to rate if they are going to win big distance races. Also, Drug, if we concede your point, then that would be true for all horses, so they are all going to get "worse" coming off the pace; therefore, THAS or Uncle Mo or whomever wouldn't be at a disadvantage, correct?

Rollo, you're correct about THAS' style not having been established. Mott admitted he would have preferred a target to run at. I suspect that in his comeback in 2011, be it in an allowance race or a minor stakes, Mott will have his new jock take THAS back (not strangle him, but keep him a few lengths off the lead) no matter what the pace is........I mean, he's not going to care about winning that race, but he clearly cared about winning this one.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I get that any horse on an easy lead will be at his best, but I don't get how taking him off the pace will make him a worse horse.

It won't make him a worse horse - it will just make his performance that day worse.

Let's say they tried to wrangle him back today and the Macho Uno horse that ran a strong 2nd was left on an uncontested lead. It wouldn't have been smart at all.

[Indian Charlie]

If a very high quality horse is at basically a gallop, it doesn't matter if there is a horse in front of him or not, as far as whether or not his performance is affected.

Like Uncle Mo. Or going way further back, Akinemod in her La Brea.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

If a very high quality horse is at basically a gallop, it doesn't matter if there is a horse in front of him or not, as far as whether or not his performance is affected.

Like Uncle Mo. Or going way further back, Akinemod in her La Brea.

A lot of horses at all levels have turned in career best tops with the trip of laying 2nd in a similar spot Uncle Mo was in. Basically - rating off of a pace setter - while clear of the next horse and getting no outside pressure.

If the horse relaxes - and no one comes up from 3rd to force the pace - it's pretty close to being the same thing as being loose on an uncontested lead.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A lot of horses at all levels have turned in career best tops with the trip of laying 2nd in a similar spot Uncle Mo was in. Basically - rating off of a pace setter - while clear of the next horse and getting no outside pressure.

If the horse relaxes - and no one comes up from 3rd to force the pace - it's pretty close to being the same thing as being loose on an uncontested lead.

True enough.

However, in the very rare occasion, you can have a Secretariat like Belmont or Akinemod like La Brea (in which she was galloping between two sprinters who were all out) in which it seems like the other horses are irrelevant.

But yeah, in the vast majority of the time, that assessment of yours is right.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Betsy

THAS has nothing to do with them, though- they are all different individuals.

He's a free-running horse, just like the others listed. Most of those listed are classic winners, too.

So you ought to hope he has something in common with them.

He broke his maiden from off the pace...and today Mott admitted he would have preferred a target to run at.

He was less than a length back on a very snug hold (as I said, the jock had the proverbial "feet on the dashboard").

I suspect that in his comeback in 2011, be it in an allowance race or a minor stakes, Mott will have his new jock take THAS back (not strangle him, but keep him a few lengths off the lead) no matter what the pace is........I mean, he's not going to care about winning that race, but he clearly cared about winning this one.

It would be very foolish to try and alter this horse's running style dramatically. If anything, they should be looking to give him some competition as he blew away his rivals in the maiden and Nashua, then curiously kind of meandered down the lane today.

By the way, I highly doubt, in this day and age of light campaigning, that they won't be trying to win every prep race. I would have to think his debut will be in the Fountain Of Youth if recent history is any indication.

I get that any horse on an easy lead will be at his best, but I don't get how taking him off the pace will make him a worse horse. For 3 year olds and up, they'd really better be able to rate if they are going to win big distance races.

You just opened the floor to Redding Collery references. Thanks.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

He's a free-running horse, just like the others listed. Most of those listed are classic winners, too.

So you ought to hope he has something in common with them.



He was less than a length back on a very snug hold (as I said, the jock had the proverbial "feet on the dashboard").




It would be very foolish to try and alter this horse's running style dramatically. If anything, they should be looking to give him some competition as he blew away his rivals in the maiden and Nashua, then curiously kind of meandered down the lane today.

By the way, I highly doubt, in this day and age of light campaigning, that they won't be trying to win every prep race. I would have to think his debut will be in the Fountain Of Youth if recent history is any indication.



You just opened the floor to Redding Collery references. Thanks.

I'll have to look at his maiden win again, but I remember thinking that the jock had a ton of horse.

I don't think they should change his style drastically - no dropping back 5, 6, 7 lengths for him - but if he could run from about 2 or 3 lengths off the pace, I think that would be ideal. I have to watch the replay of today's race; I didn't see him gawking, but both Johnny V and Mott said he was looking around....it wasn't that obvious to me. Having a target may settle him down some more; then again, maturity may do the same.

I can't see Mott bringing this colt back in a major stakes for his seasonal debut, but of course I could be wrong. I'm sure he wants to win every race, but my point was that he considered the Remsen a big race for THAS, where he wasn't going to fool around. He can afford to fool around in a prep race, even if it means he loses.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I'll have to look at his maiden win again, but I remember thinking that the jock had a ton of horse.

I don't think they should change his style drastically - no dropping back 5, 6, 7 lengths for him - but if he could run from about 2 or 3 lengths off the pace, I think that would be ideal. I have to watch the replay of today's race; I didn't see him gawking, but both Johnny V and Mott said he was looking around....it wasn't that obvious to me. Having a target may settle him down some more; then again, maturity may do the same.

I can't see Mott bringing this colt back in a major stakes for his seasonal debut, but of course I could be wrong. I'm sure he wants to win every race, but my point was that he considered the Remsen a big race for THAS, where he wasn't going to fool around. He can afford to fool around in a prep race, even if it means he loses.

My point is that I don't think it will take any active meddling from the connections to get this horse to "relax".

As DrugS's said a couple of times, he'll probably simply run into a horse a bit faster than him early and he'll find himself chasing (which is basically what happened in his maiden race).

As far as his 3yo comeback, Mott started First Samurai in the Fountain Of Youth and I believe Hold Me Back debuted in the Jim Beam, so it won't be a shock to see him reappear in a big race, particularly since he's now at a nw3x condition.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

As far as his 3yo comeback, Mott started First Samurai in the Fountain Of Youth

Frank Brothers I think.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Frank Brothers I think.

Should have caught that, cuz I almost put Hansel (Fountain Of Youth) down, too.

They both look like John Denver.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

My point is that I don't think it will take any active meddling from the connections to get this horse to "relax".

As DrugS's said a couple of times, he'll probably simply run into a horse a bit faster than him early and he'll find himself chasing (which is basically what happened in his maiden race).

As far as his 3yo comeback, Mott started First Samurai in the Fountain Of Youth and I believe Hold Me Back debuted in the Jim Beam, so it won't be a shock to see him reappear in a big race, particularly since he's now at a nw3x condition.

And, First Samurai's first race back was the Hutchinson....in the slop ( I think against Keyed Entry ).

Byk still thinks that's the reason he didn't win the TC.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And, First Samurai's first race back was the Hutchinson....in the slop ( I think against Keyed Entry ).

Byk still thinks that's the reason he didn't win the TC.

I really gotta start fact-checking when bringing up stuff post-2001.

The Hutcheson has been a great "derailer" of many a classic campaign. Forego probably would have won the Derby otherwise. Spectacular Bid--the Triple Crown. Swale would have shown up in the Preakness. Forty Niner would have caught Winning Colors. Rhythm would have hit the board in a prep race before the Derby. Fly So Free would have saw out the 10f at CD. Holy Bull wouldn't have caught a sloppy track he couldn't handle. Unbridled's Song's feet would have held together. Coronado's Quest wouldn't have developed a fear of crowds. Cat Thief would have been a shorter price in the BC Classic.

Thank god they've relegated it to a mere undercard race on Fountain Of Youth day.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

My point is that I don't think it will take any active meddling from the connections to get this horse to "relax".

As DrugS's said a couple of times, he'll probably simply run into a horse a bit faster than him early and he'll find himself chasing (which is basically what happened in his maiden race).

As far as his 3yo comeback, Mott started First Samurai in the Fountain Of Youth and I believe Hold Me Back debuted in the Jim Beam, so it won't be a shock to see him reappear in a big race, particularly since he's now at a nw3x condition.

Oh, ok - I agree with you then (about the relaxing part)