Roger Stein on Beyer on Zenyatta

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

So why was the stalker Etched, who had never been more than 2 lengths off the pace in any previous start, 8 lengths from the lead in the early stages despite this being his first start beyond 9f?

Zenyatta was about 12-15 lengths behind him early.

Seems more likely that the "out of the ordinary" was going on up front, not at the rear.

Etched was only 4 lengths back after a quarter mile. He was about 5 lengths back after 3 furlongs. It looked like he was in a good spot. I think Alan Garcia saw that you had 4 horses going at a pretty good clip up front, so he figured he would stay in the clear in 5th.

Just to be clear about my position with regards to Zenyatta, I don't think she was that much further back after a half-mile than she should have been or than I would have expected. She was maybe 2-3 lengths further back than I would have expected, but that's about it. That wasn't what really hurt her. What really hurt her was being 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs. That hurt her because Mike Smith had to use her to get her back in the race. That really hurt her because she ended up having to sprint the final 7 furlongs of the race. To say that's hard to do is an understatement.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That hurt her because Mike Smith had to use her to get her back in the race. That really hurt her because she ended up having to sprint the final 7 furlongs of the race. To say that's hard to do is an understatement.

It seemed to me that two races were taking place at once. Maybe in the initial stages Zenyatta got left for dead (she broke a bit flat anyways), but once the other jocks realized the ridiculous duel going on up front, they all seemed to backed off. If they did purposefully back off (and you said yourself that Etched settled further back after 3 furlongs), then the second flight simply came back to Zenyatta, as opposed to her sprinting the final 7f in some herculean effort.

Essentially, the first 4 were on their own and ultimately immaterial, as they were swallowed up immediately without resistance. Etched was the first to hit the front and make a serious move, and Zenyatta was never more than 14 lengths behind him early and easily within striking distance of him throughout the backstretch.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

It seemed to me that two races were taking place at once. Maybe in the initial stages Zenyatta got left for dead (she broke a bit flat anyways), but once the other jocks realized the ridiculous duel going on up front, they all seemed to backed off. If they did purposefully back off (and you said yourself that Etched settled further back after 3 furlongs), then the second flight simply came back to Zenyatta, as opposed to her sprinting the final 7f in some herculean effort.

Essentially, the first 4 were on their own and ultimately immaterial, as they were swallowed up immediately without resistance. Etched was the first to hit the front and make a serious move, and Zenyatta was never more than 14 lengths behind him early and easily within striking distance of him throughout the backstretch.

Zenyatta did break flat-footed but that's not unusual for her. She pretty much always breaks like that.

With regard to whether she was sprinting home or the others were coming back to her, it was clearly a combination of both. The front runners totally collapsed. There's no doubt about that. But Zenyatta did sprint home. If you do the math, she ran her final 7 furlongs in about 1:23 1/5. That is spectacular.

[Rupert Pupkin]

I assume you guys know that Mike Smith admitted that he contemplated pulling Zenyatta up early in the race. I think he knows the horse pretty well. If she felt like her normal self and was travelling fine, do you think he would have been thinking about pulling her up?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I assume you guys know that Mike Smith admitted that he contemplated pulling Zenyatta up early in the race. I think he knows the horse pretty well. If she felt like her normal self and was travelling fine, do you think he would have been thinking about pulling her up?

Just like Joel Rosario considered pulling up Make Music For Me after he was 20th and 28 lengths behind after just a quarter mile in the Kentucky Derby...before he closed to finish 4th and will now go down in history as the single worst horse to ever make a Superfecta ticket in the KY Derby.




Ice Box was 24 back - I'm shocked Lezcano didn't come out and say he almost pulled him up. If only a Horse of the Year vote was on the line for Ice Box and Make Music For Me might we be treated to such stupidity.

You really are trying to be a wet brained tard. It would be a lot more amusing if you were some deranged clueless pretty poney woman sprinkling each one of your posts with about 7 emotocons.

I assume you know that I contemplated playing a $100 straight Pick 6 of Chamberlain Bridge - Uncle Mo - Goldikova - Dakota Phone - Dangerous Midge - Blame ... I think this proves that I should win an eclipse award for Handicapper of the Year.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I assume you know that I contemplated playing a $100 straight Pick 6 of Chamberlain Bridge - Uncle Mo - Goldikova - Dakota Phone - Dangerous Midge - Blame ... I think this proves that I should win an eclipse award for Handicapper of the Year.

Instead, however, you decided to put Quality Road on top (with Haynesfield as your 2nd choice). That was a very nice selection. There's MUCH to learn from you. ha ha ha

Where do you find the nuts? How does anyone not fall down laughing whenever you post anything, especially when you criticize others, after that FIASCO?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Instead, however, you decided to put Quality Road on top (with Haynesfield as your 2nd choice). That was a very nice selection. There's MUCH to learn from you. ha ha ha

Where do you find the nuts? How does anyone not fall down laughing whenever you post anything, especially when you criticize others, after that FIASCO?

Blame was my 2nd choice... but you know that already you ankle biting stalker. Oh boy, my top pick in a race put in a non-effort at 7/1 odds.

Keep pretending like every bet you've ever made is a winning one - and that you actually make money betting.

How does it feel to be the message board equivalent of Rich Kotite?

[santana]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Instead, however, you decided to put Quality Road on top (with Haynesfield as your 2nd choice). That was a very nice selection. There's MUCH to learn from you. ha ha ha

Where do you find the nuts? How does anyone not fall down laughing whenever you post anything, especially when you criticize others, after that FIASCO?

I have NO IDEA how old you are Fartman, but it is 1/5 that Drugs knows way more than you. The only thing i would say against his Classic selection was putting Haynesfield 2nd...just his breeding alone would make him a auto toss for me.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You really are trying to be a wet brained tard. It would be a lot more amusing if you were some deranged clueless pretty poney woman sprinkling each one of your posts with about 7 emotocons.

I think Rupert usually has one of the better opinions on here. It never ceases to amaze me what Zenyattardism does to people!

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I assume you know that I contemplated playing a $100 straight Pick 6 of Chamberlain Bridge - Uncle Mo - Goldikova - Dakota Phone - Dangerous Midge - Blame ... I think this proves that I should win an eclipse award for Handicapper of the Year.

Are you freakin nuts? Would you really leave off Zenyatta in the BCC? I bet you even if she runs second in that race, they will pay out the P6 to both the winner and her.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Just like Joel Rosario considered pulling up Make Music For Me after he was 20th and 28 lengths behind after just a quarter mile in the Kentucky Derby...before he closed to finish 4th and will now go down in history as the single worst horse to ever make a Superfecta ticket in the KY Derby.




Ice Box was 24 back - I'm shocked Lezcano didn't come out and say he almost pulled him up. If only a Horse of the Year vote was on the line for Ice Box and Make Music For Me might we be treated to such stupidity.

You really are trying to be a wet brained tard. It would be a lot more amusing if you were some deranged clueless pretty poney woman sprinkling each one of your posts with about 7 emotocons.

I assume you know that I contemplated playing a $100 straight Pick 6 of Chamberlain Bridge - Uncle Mo - Goldikova - Dakota Phone - Dangerous Midge - Blame ... I think this proves that I should win an eclipse award for Handicapper of the Year.

Joel Rosario never said he thought about pulling Make Music For Me up. Jockeys don't pull up come-from-behinders for being too far back. They pull them up when they don't feel right.

Your opinion is the one that is amusing. My opinion is shared by every trainer on the west coast that I've talked to. It's also shared by Mike Smith. But I guess you know Zenyatta better than Mike Smith since you thought she wouldn't finish within 10 lengths in the Classic.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Jockeys don't pull up come-from-behinders for being too far back. They pull them up when they don't feel right.

Your opinion is the one that is amusing. My opinion is shared by every trainer on the west coast that I've talked to. It's also shared by Mike Smith.

Every trainer on the West Coast thought Zenyatta didn't feel right to them early on ... and yet she overcame this ailment that plagued her so terribly through the first three furlongs of the race?

Yeah, ok.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I assume you guys know that Mike Smith admitted that he contemplated pulling Zenyatta up early in the race. I think he knows the horse pretty well. If she felt like her normal self and was travelling fine, do you think he would have been thinking about pulling her up?

Is this the same Mike Smith who is generally regarded as being pretty simple minded?

And thinks Z is the greatest horse that ever was, or ever will be?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Is this the same Mike Smith who is generally regarded as being pretty simple minded?

And thinks Z is the greatest horse that ever was, or ever will be?

Most jockeys and exercise riders may not be geniuses, but they can certainly tell when a horse they ride regularly doesn't feel right.

[TouchOfGrey]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I assume you guys know that Mike Smith admitted that he contemplated pulling Zenyatta up early in the race. I think he knows the horse pretty well. If she felt like her normal self and was travelling fine, do you think he would have been thinking about pulling her up?

I think he choked.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by TouchOfGrey

I think he choked.

Smith rode a very good race. He's lucky Jose Lezcano wasn't still on Fly Down and Julian Leperoux was... Julian was oblivious to Zenyatta while riding his own horse - and he let her out of a trap. Smith would have been stopped cold had Julian not angled Fly Down out so soon.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If you do the math, she ran her final 7 furlongs in about 1:23 1/5.

Math obviously isn't your strong suit.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Math obviously isn't your strong suit.

Let me see. They went the first 3 furlongs in :35. Zenyatta was 20 lengths back. She went the first 3 fulongs in about :39. She finished in 2:02 1/5. You do the math.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Let me see. They went the first 3 furlongs in :35. Zenyatta was 20 lengths back. She went the first 3 fulongs in about :39. She finished in 2:02 1/5. You do the math.

Wow - you are truly weapons grade stupid. You actually think there are 5 lengths in a second? Tears, Jerry, Tears.

Mathematically speaking, a length should equal 1/5th of a second only when a horse travels a furlong in 15 seconds. Do you have a harness racing background or something?

It obviously depends on the rate of speed....but as a rule of thumb, one full second equals about six lengths.

I told you already - based on the information in the result chart - Zenyatta ran her final mile in 1:36.27 - and final six furlongs in 1:12.59 - those times come from Formulator's chart.

You - keep saying she ran her final seven furlongs in 1:23 1/5.

Which means you keep insisting that she ran the 4th furlong of the race in 10.61 seconds... after running her 3rd furlong of the race in 13.07 seconds.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Wow - you are truly weapons grade stupid. You actually think there are 5 lengths in a second? Tears, Jerry, Tears.

Mathematically speaking, a length should equal 1/5th of a second only when a horse travels a furlong in 15 seconds. Do you have a harness racing background or something?

It obviously depends on the rate of speed....but as a rule of thumb, one full second equals about six lengths.

I told you already - based on the information in the result chart - Zenyatta ran her final mile in 1:36.27 - and final six furlongs in 1:12.59 - those times come from Formulator's chart.

You - keep saying she ran her final seven furlongs in 1:23 1/5.

Which means you keep insisting that she ran the 4th furlong of the race in 10.61 seconds... after running her 3rd furlong of the race in 13.07 seconds.

I actually did used to go to the harness races occasioanlly as a teenager. And you are right that in thoroughbred racing it is approximately 6 lengths per second rather than 5. That is what I should be using. It is more accurate.

I was being conservative when I said Zenyatta was 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs. There is no official number of how far back she was, but there are plenty of people (Richard Migliore) and articles that think she was closer to 25 lengths back (between calls after about 3 furlongs). If she was 24 lengths back, that would mean she ran her final 7 furlongs in 1:23 1/5. If she was exactly 20 back, then she ran her final 7 furlongs in 1:23 4/5. If she was 22 lengths back, then it was more like 1:23 2/5 or 1:23 3/5.

How far back do you think she was after 3 furlongs?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Wow - you are truly weapons grade stupid. You actually think there are 5 lengths in a second? Tears, Jerry, Tears.

Mathematically speaking, a length should equal 1/5th of a second only when a horse travels a furlong in 15 seconds. Do you have a harness racing background or something?

It obviously depends on the rate of speed....but as a rule of thumb, one full second equals about six lengths.

I told you already - based on the information in the result chart - Zenyatta ran her final mile in 1:36.27 - and final six furlongs in 1:12.59 - those times come from Formulator's chart.

You - keep saying she ran her final seven furlongs in 1:23 1/5.

Which means you keep insisting that she ran the 4th furlong of the race in 10.61 seconds... after running her 3rd furlong of the race in 13.07 seconds.

I just watched the race a few more times. She was actually the furthest back after 2 1/2 furlongs. She was probably 22 or so lengths back after 2 1/2 furlongs. So that means she ran her final 7 1/2 furlongs in 1:29 3/5, which is more impressive than her final 7 furlongs.

I think her correct final 7 furlong time was a few ticks slower than I originally thought. I think she ran her final 7 furlongs in 1:23 4/5 (I originally had said 1:23 1/5).