Roger Stein on Beyer on Zenyatta

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I just think it's logical she was so far back early in the BCC because it was a race with an unusually fast pace, for her.

Obviously.

And Rupert is going through her past races and picking out fractions - without taking into consideration the speed of the racing surface.

Go to Zenyatta's race two starts back at Del Mar. She was 7.5 lengths behind a 50.61 half mile going 8.5fs.

One race earlier - you had an opt claiming race for fillies at a mile on the same surface go 45.59 for a half mile. The winner of that race was a filly in for a 40K claiming tag.

So, Zenyatta's race went 5.02 full seconds - or about 30 lengths - slower to the half mile than some ordinary N1X opt claiming route for females.

Here are the charts of these two races run over the same surface 30 minutes apart:

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...00807&raceNo=8

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...00807&raceNo=9


I don't know why it is - but A LOT of people are just hopelessly lost by stuff like this. If you're going to compare fractions with fractions at different tracks - you better be able to adjust for speed of surface.

I've seen hopeless $5,000 claimers cut fractions of 21 and change 44 flat and run 1:09 at Turf Paradise. There are days at Calder where the track is so slow that Grade 1 sprinters would be lucky to beat 23 flat and run 6fs in 1:12 and change. Obviously - Turf Paradise to Calder is an extreme example - but her So. Cal pace fractions that keep getting quoted are run on faster racing surfaces than ones at most Eastern dirt tracks.

Lookin At Lucky romped in the Haskell getting 9fs in 1:49 4/5. Blame won a Grade 1 at Churchill in the Stephen Foster in 1:49 1/5.

The day Zenyatta won the Santa Margarita earlier this year - Dance To My Tune and Floating Heart finished a nose apart and both completed 9fs in 1:48 2/5.

To use the pace fractions Zenyatta ran in the Santa Margarita and compare them with other horses in the BC Classic .. is every bit as stupid as saying Dance to My Tune and Floating Heart would have won the Haskell by 8.5 lengths because their final time was 8.5 lengths faster. Just ignore the speed of the racing surface.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Obviously.

And Rupert is going through her past races and picking out fractions - without taking into consideration the speed of the racing surface.

Go to Zenyatta's race two starts back at Del Mar. She was 7.5 lengths behind a 50.61 half mile going 8.5fs.

One race earlier - you had an opt claiming race for fillies at a mile on the same surface go 45.59 for a half mile. The winner of that race was a filly in for a 40K claiming tag.

So, Zenyatta's race went 5.02 full seconds - or about 30 lengths - slower to the half mile than some ordinary N1X opt claiming route for females.

Here are the charts of these two races run over the same surface 30 minutes apart:

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...00807&raceNo=8

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...00807&raceNo=9


I don't know why it is - but A LOT of people are just hopelessly lost by stuff like this. If you're going to compare fractions with fractions at different tracks - you better be able to adjust for speed of surface.

I've seen hopeless $5,000 claimers cut fractions of 21 and change 44 flat and run 1:09 at Turf Paradise. There are days at Calder where the track is so slow that Grade 1 sprinters would be lucky to beat 23 flat and run 6fs in 1:12 and change. Obviously - Turf Paradise to Calder is an extreme example - but her So. Cal pace fractions that keep getting quoted are run on faster racing surfaces than ones at most Eastern dirt tracks.

Lookin At Lucky romped in the Haskell getting 9fs in 1:49 4/5. Blame won a Grade 1 at Churchill in the Stephen Foster in 1:49 1/5.

The day Zenyatta won the Santa Margarita earlier this year - Dance To My Tune and Floating Heart finished a nose apart and both completed 9fs in 1:48 2/5.

To use the pace fractions Zenyatta ran in the Santa Margarita and compare them with other horses in the BC Classic .. is every bit as stupid as saying Dance to My Tune and Floating Heart would have won the Haskell by 8.5 lengths because their final time was 8.5 lengths faster. Just ignore the speed of the racing surface.

If Zenyatta would have run in the allowance race at Del Mar where they went the half in :45 3/5, do you think she would have been 35 lengths back? Is that what you are saying? If you honestly think that, I give up.

In the BC Classic, there was clearly something bothering her in the early going of the race. Just watch the way she's moving. She's never looked like that before. She bobbled at least once or twice. You ask Cannon Shell or any trainer out there if that horse looked comfortable in the early going of that race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If Zenyatta would have run in the allowance race at Del Mar where they went the half in :45 3/5, do you think she would have been 35 lengths back? Is that what you are saying? If you honestly think that, I give up.

For a guy with an IQ well over 70 - you are truly hopeless.

No, Zenyatta would have not been 37 lengths back in that allowance race because Smith wouldn't have allowed her to race that far back. She would have been a long, long way back though.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

In the BC Classic, there was clearly something bothering her in the early going of the race.

Either you're confusing Zenyatta with Life At Ten in the Ladies Classic - or you're watching Zenyatta get outrun by much faster horses than her.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Just watch the way she's moving. She's never looked like that before. She bobbled at least once or twice. You ask Cannon Shell or any trainer out there if that horse looked comfortable in the early going of that race

OK Cannon Shell or any trainer out there - did she look comfortable while she was getting outsprinted by MUCH faster horses in a race where the pace totally collapsed?

Also, did Ice Box and Make Music For Me look comfortable in the Kentucky Derby when they closed from 24 lengths and 28 lengths back to finish 2nd and 4th in a similar pace meltdown?

[Dahoss]

With all due respect DrugS, Joanied at PA could tell from a still picture that Zenyatta wasn't happy early. The truly enlightened can pick up on stuff like that.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

With all due respect DrugS, Joanied at PA could tell from a still picture that Zenyatta wasn't happy early. The truly enlightened can pick up on stuff like that.

Over/under 5.5 emoticons used in her post:

Over: -200
Under: +180

[Dahoss]

The under felt like a bigger longshot than that.

She made up for it by saying she hopes Frankel the horse comes over next year to run in the stakes race (San Gorgonio) that they renamed for Bobby Frankel. He'll need a sex change to be eligible but they are doing amazing things with medicine nowadays, so we'll see.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

With all due respect DrugS, Joanied at PA could tell from a still picture that Zenyatta wasn't happy early. The truly enlightened can pick up on stuff like that.

Are you saying that horsemen can't tell when a horse isn't travelling well?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Are you saying that horsemen can't tell when a horse isn't travelling well?

Seriously?

No, I'm saying an idiot on the internet can't tell if a horse is happy or not by a still picture.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Seriously?

No, I'm saying an idiot on the internet can't tell if a horse is happy or not by a still picture.

In the case of the BC Classic, we have more than a still picture.

[Cannon Shell]

I dont understand why Rupert and others are claiming that some thing was wrong with her. Was whatever was wrong with her get cured by the time she hit the backstretch? She looked like a 6 year old mare who didnt warm up properly for a race on a cold night against much faster horses than she is used to running against.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I dont understand why Rupert and others are claiming that some thing was wrong with her. Was whatever was wrong with her get cured by the time she hit the backstretch? She looked like a 6 year old mare who didnt warm up properly for a race on a cold night against much faster horses than she is used to running against.

I agree with you. As you said, "She looked like a 6 year old mare who didnt warm up properly for a race on a cold night against much faster horses than she's used to running against." I agree with you 100%.

There are plenty of horses that take a while to get warmed up. They're a little stiff when they first come on the track but after they warm up for a while, they look ok. As you said, she didn't warm up. That is probably why she looked so stiff and sluggish in the early stages of the race. This, along with the dirt in her face, is why she was 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs instead of 14 lengths back.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

There are plenty of horses that take a while to get warmed up. They're a little stiff when they first come on the track but after they warm up for a while, they look ok. As you said, she didn't warm up. That is probably why she looked so stiff and sluggish in the early stages of the race. This, along with the dirt in her face, is why she was 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs instead of 14 lengths back.

So why was the stalker Etched, who had never been more than 2 lengths off the pace in any previous start, 8 lengths from the lead in the early stages despite this being his first start beyond 9f?

Zenyatta was about 12-15 lengths behind him early.

Seems more likely that the "out of the ordinary" was going on up front, not at the rear.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

So why was the stalker Etched, who had never been more than 2 lengths off the pace in any previous start, 8 lengths from the lead in the early stages despite this being his first start beyond 9f?

Zenyatta was about 12-15 lengths behind him early.

Seems more likely that the "out of the ordinary" was going on up front, not at the rear.

Etched was only 4 lengths back after a quarter mile. He was about 5 lengths back after 3 furlongs. It looked like he was in a good spot. I think Alan Garcia saw that you had 4 horses going at a pretty good clip up front, so he figured he would stay in the clear in 5th.

Just to be clear about my position with regards to Zenyatta, I don't think she was that much further back after a half-mile than she should have been or than I would have expected. She was maybe 2-3 lengths further back than I would have expected, but that's about it. That wasn't what really hurt her. What really hurt her was being 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs. That hurt her because Mike Smith had to use her to get her back in the race. That really hurt her because she ended up having to sprint the final 7 furlongs of the race. To say that's hard to do is an understatement.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

For a guy with an IQ well over 70 - you are truly hopeless.

No, Zenyatta would have not been 37 lengths back in that allowance race because Smith wouldn't have allowed her to race that far back. She would have been a long, long way back though.




Either you're confusing Zenyatta with Life At Ten in the Ladies Classic - or you're watching Zenyatta get outrun by much faster horses than her.




OK Cannon Shell or any trainer out there - did she look comfortable while she was getting outsprinted by MUCH faster horses in a race where the pace totally collapsed?

Also, did Ice Box and Make Music For Me look comfortable in the Kentucky Derby when they closed from 24 lengths and 28 lengths back to finish 2nd and 4th in a similar pace meltdown?

How do you explain her last race on dirt, the race at Oaklawn? Do you claim that track was much faster than Churchill? They ran the first 3 furlongs in :36, give or take 1/5th of a second. Zenyatta was 8 lenghts back. But when they run :35 at Churchill (mainly on a straightaway), she is 20 lengths back.