Poly speed disaster at keeneland

Rupert Pupkin · #1 10-12-2006, 01:16 PM

I haven't heard any reports from Woodbine so I can't comment on it. I can tell you that everyone loves the track at Hollywood Park so far. I think the reports from Kentucky have been quite positive too.

With regard to Keeneland, there used to be a huge speed bias. If there is an anti-speed bias now, that's not so bad. I don't care what the bias is. As long as we know what the bias is, then we can deal with it.

I don't really have an opinion one way or the other when it comes to polytrack. I can tell you that the surfaces in Southern California have been really bad for a long time now and we needed to do something. I would rather have polytrack than what we have had for the last several years. Anything is better than what we have had for the last several years. It would have probably been better if we could have put in good, new dirt tracks but I don't think anyone had confidence that the job would have been done right.

1st_Saturday_in_May · #2 10-12-2006, 01:19 PM

Looks like speed's going down again at Keeneland....5/2 2nd favorite folds late in the 1st...

sumitas · #3 10-12-2006, 01:30 PM

but she still finished 3rd.

bogeydaman · #4 10-12-2006, 01:34 PM

Way to early to say that based on 3 Kee days that Poly is unfair to speed horses (based on only 1 winner). Last I checked Woodbine is Poly. The same Friday to Sunday cards last week at Woodbine had 8 winners out of 28 races that were 1st or 2nd and < 1/2 length from the lead after the 1st quarter.

Oh, and that was the same number of front running winners during the same Friday to Sunday days as Oak Tree, a traditionally speed favoring track.

Cajungator26 · #5 10-12-2006, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bogeydaman

Way to early to say that based on 3 Kee days that Poly is unfair to speed horses (based on only 1 winner). Last I checked Woodbine is Poly. The same Friday to Sunday cards last week at Woodbine had 8 winners out of 28 races that were 1st or 2nd and < 1/2 length from the lead after the 1st quarter.

Oh, and that was the same number of front running winners during the same Friday to Sunday days as Oak Tree, a traditionally speed favoring track.

I believe I heard somewhere that Keeneland had changed up the surface though... I would guess that the fill of poly has something to do with that.

sumitas · #6 10-12-2006, 01:53 PM

2nd race 9f, the fav wins from off the pace with a huge run in the stretch.

Let's remember that the stretch at Keeneland used to be downhill. There was a 9 foot difference between the hi and lo points of the former surface.

This meet the track has been leveled and the turns made more sweeping so it's not all poly folks.

Downthestretch55 · #7 10-12-2006, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Yeah I'm sure that has something to do with it. And I have stayed out of this talk because I still think it is too early to get a read, but just in watching the races and replays horses on the front end do seem to be struggling home. If it's a bias, okay, I'll just look for horses to come off the pace, but wow, what a change from previous meets. I guess as a bettor, I'm okay with a bias, I'll just have to bet accordingly. But I can see this bias having a negative effect on things such as breeding which has been brought up previous. We'll see.

Yup DaHoss,
I've stayed off this thread as well.
Now I'm waiting for future threads like:
What if Affleet Alex had run on poly. Or Slew, Bid...
This hypothetical bs could go on and on.
Look at the "dream BC" theread and ya get the picture.
If you're unable to talk about "reality"...might as well go for something else.

sumitas · #8 10-12-2006, 02:19 PM

fav closed for 3rd, the long shot speed finished 2nd and a long shot off the pace wins by 3 L after a drive down the stretch. should be a biggie ex. $320.60...it's not like the speed is completely folding. off the pace horses may just be better as far as the win goes. we'll need to see more.

Rupert Pupkin · #9 10-12-2006, 01:38 PM

There's not any debate that polytrack is a different surface than dirt. When a horse runs on it for the first time, you can't expect him to necessarily run the same as he ran on dirt any more than you can expect that a horse will run the same on dirt and turf. When a horse is running on a new surface, you never know for sure that he will like it. That's fine with me as a handicapper. I take it into consideration and try to make educated guesses as to which horses will like it much in the same way that I make educated guesses as to whether horses will like any new surface. If you want to play it really safe, don't bet a horse the first time they run on it. Wait until they have had a race over it.

Anyway, all the reports I have heard from trainers have been extremely positive. As I said in another post, people out here in Southern California have been joking that this is the first thing that all the trainers here have ever agreed on. You can never get the trainers out here to agree on anything. But so far, every single trainer out here loves the polytrack. The praise has been unanimous. Someone was joking the other day that even Neil Drysdale, who complains about everything, has had no complaints so far. He loves the polytrack.

Honu · #10 10-12-2006, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I haven't heard any reports from Woodbine so I can't comment on it. I can tell you that everyone loves the track at Hollywood Park so far. I think the reports from Kentucky have been quite positive too.

With regard to Keeneland, there used to be a huge speed bias. If there is an anti-speed bias now, that's not so bad. I don't care what the bias is. As long as we know what the bias is, then we can deal with it.

I don't really have an opinion one way or the other when it comes to polytrack. I can tell you that the surfaces in Southern California have been really bad for a long time now and we needed to do something. I would rather have polytrack than what we have had for the last several years. Anything is better than what we have had for the last several years. It would have probably been better if we could have put in good, new dirt tracks but I don't think anyone had confidence that the job would have been done right.

I dont really think the tracks are so bad per say here in Cali but how they are maintained and how horseman train.
You can look any day of the week and more horses work at So. Cali . racetracks each day than anywhere else in the nation.
The trackman with dirt surface racing has control of all the factors , I cant tell you how many days the track will be one way and then all of a sudden its a diffirent way, I dont mind that they dig it up but jeez could you please add a little more water to it so it isnt so damn cuppy. The biggest bonus I see with Polytrack is that basically it takes care of itself without much human intervention, I think that its a very big key that you dont have some trackman deeming how he wants the track to be.

Pointg5 · #11 10-12-2006, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Honu

I dont really think the tracks are so bad per say here in Cali but how they are maintained and how horseman train.
You can look any day of the week and more horses work at So. Cali . racetracks each day than anywhere else in the nation.
The trackman with dirt surface racing has control of all the factors , I cant tell you how many days the track will be one way and then all of a sudden its a diffirent way, I dont mind that they dig it up but jeez could you please add a little more water to it so it isnt so damn cuppy. The biggest bonus I see with Polytrack is that basically it takes care of itself without much human intervention, I think that its a very big key that you dont have some trackman deeming how he wants the track to be.

Why do they train so much in California as opposed to places like Belmont?
That's interesting, I didn't realize that...

Downthestretch55 · #12 10-12-2006, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Why do they train so much in California as opposed to places like Belmont?
That's interesting, I didn't realize that...

I don't know about Cali training. But you might be interested in knowing that there was a lot of training going on at Belmont while the Toga meet was full steam ahead. There are currently horses in training at Toga and AQ.
The "little guys" get bumped out of their stalls when the meet shows up, but at least they get to use the track for a while.

sumitas · #13 10-12-2006, 03:30 PM

the first 4 races today the fav has won twice, 2nd once, 3rd once...

Rupert Pupkin · #14 10-12-2006, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Honu

I dont really think the tracks are so bad per say here in Cali but how they are maintained and how horseman train.
You can look any day of the week and more horses work at So. Cali . racetracks each day than anywhere else in the nation.
The trackman with dirt surface racing has control of all the factors , I cant tell you how many days the track will be one way and then all of a sudden its a diffirent way, I dont mind that they dig it up but jeez could you please add a little more water to it so it isnt so damn cuppy. The biggest bonus I see with Polytrack is that basically it takes care of itself without much human intervention, I think that its a very big key that you dont have some trackman deeming how he wants the track to be.

The problem may have been due to human error. I don't know. I do know that Del Mar was extremely dangerous this year and around 30 or 40 horses had to be put down.

I know that we were having trouble keeping a lot of our horses sound at all three tracks and these horses were only in light training. We were having horses come back from an easy breeze with really puffy ankles. You don't see that on polytrack.