11/5 (CD): Breeders' Cup Friday (Post Draw Fields; ML's)

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

There are several reasons I think the the Distaff is the spot to go. First off, I think Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle to overcome than anything in the Distaff. Even beyond Champagne, the sprint is a better and tougher field.

Next, she really hasn't been trained up to a sprint to end her season, has she? She's been running very effectively at longer distances. Who in their right mind uses the QEII as a prep for a grade one sprint??!

As for her ability to sprint vs. going 9 on dirt, well, if you can use the reasoning that she might have improved since her December sprint, I don't think it's a stretch to say she might have improved since the Oaks in what was essentially early May.

Her race in the Oaks, she sat off the lead and I see no reason why that wouldn't happen again. Also, I don't think Blind Luck is going to win the Distaff anyways. I think she's a toss.

That all being said, if she were my horse, I'd probably have run her in the Cal Cup and ran QT in the BC mile. I don't think there are any spots that she fits well in the BC.

However, with that, I believe it's entirely possible she'd have cashed a nice check in the Distaff. The Sprint though, I think the race would need to fall apart for her to make any noise at all.

I understand you don't like Blind Luck (I'm still stunned you called her a newer version of Octave) but I can't see how Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle than anything in the Distaff. I find that very far fetched.

Cassidy has terrific numbers with cutbacks (16%, $2.90 over last five years) and her defeat in the Oaks made it clear, at least to me, that she's going to need basically everything to go right to win at 9fs because it did for her and she was still beaten.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I understand you don't like Blind Luck (I'm still stunned you called her a newer version of Octave) but I can't see how Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle than anything in the Distaff. I find that very far fetched.

Cassidy has terrific numbers with cutbacks (16%, $2.90 over last five years) and her defeat in the Oaks made it clear, at least to me, that she's going to need basically everything to go right to win at 9fs because it did for her and she was still beaten.

I do like Blind Luck. I projected her to be the best 3yo filly going into this year from last. I just don't think this crop of 3yo fillies is very good.

Besides Champagne, the sprint field is a lot tougher, and for lack of a better word, saltier.

She never has shown a propensity for sprinting, and cutting her back after a year of running long, seems, well, a bit far fetched to me.

[RockHardTen1985]

Im falling truly madly deeply in love with Unrivaled Belle. In her last 4 starts she has.... Defeated every ones WORLD BEATER ON THE SQUARE... Then 3 times in a row, was put on the total chase in 5,5 and 6 horse fields. She was forced to chase/press early, and one could argue all 3 of the track she caught on those days were playing 2 speed. She did all the dirty work in those races and a lot of her kick was sucked out of her. She draws perfect, absolutely perfect in this race. I pray Kent does not ingage Malibu Prayer... Let Life At Ten, Havre De Grace or Acting Happy engage that one early. Maybe this is the same situation, just a bigger field, but I just hope Kent has learned and stalks, instead of pressing. The fact is, she will likely be 10x the price that she was in her last race. How can she be bet? She has lost on the square to the Pletcher filly's who both show up in this spot..... Maybe Joey S is wrong again, but the bottom line is at 10x the price of her last race, and maybe 10x the price of the chalk who needs to come from the clouds Im giving UB a giant shot to get first jump and win this race.

[hockey2315]

What was Unrivaled Belle's excuse last time? She's exposed imo.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

What was Unrivaled Belle's excuse last time? She's exposed imo.

Shes just chasing and pressing these short fields... Grant it, it could happen again, but is L@T gonna let MP go? Why does he even enter both?
I just think based on price, shes worth a play... She draws perfect.

[hockey2315]

She had an easy trip last time and came up empty. She's been dull.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

She had an easy trip last time and came up empty. She's been dull.

She's a major loon. A creepy and edgy horse that get spooked by the P.A. system. She never engages in her pre-race antics in the mornings when things are quiet. You're right to assume she won't allow herself to succeed in most situations and go against her. She can jump up and beat you, but there are more reliable entities in here or prices with upside to marry yourself to Unrivaled Belle. In her favor, she's had a good 2 weeks.

[Dahoss]

Why does he enter both? Why not? Don't you think they learned their lesson with Life At Ten in the Personal Ensign, thus the rating in the Beldame?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Why does he enter both? Why not? Don't you think they learned their lesson with Life At Ten in the Personal Ensign, thus the rating in the Beldame?

L@T not more accomplished? Is she not the one that they want to win this with? PE was a one time situation, you know better. 10f and an insane ride. She flew early at Belmont when she popped UB.
My 2 things with UB are, a much better price. Not a little better, we are talking like 10x better. And hopefully a better trip in a bigger field, where shes not forced to press.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Shes just chasing and pressing these short fields... Grant it, it could happen again, but is L@T gonna let MP go? Why does he even enter both?
I just think based on price, shes worth a play... She draws perfect.

Different owners dude. And obviously, like Hoss said, they're not sending Life At Ten again. . .

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Different owners dude. And obviously, like Hoss said, they're not sending Life At Ten again. . .

I know who the owners are.