11/5 (CD): Breeders' Cup Friday (Post Draw Fields; ML's)

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I/C,

That's not true and you aren't judging her fairly because of a pronounced disdain for Cassidy. On dirt, Cassidy feels, probably rightly, that 9f strains the outer limit of her ability. It's unreasonable to expect her to gut out a mile and an eighth on or near the lead with Acting Happy, Malibu Prayer, Life at Ten and Havre de Grace all involved with her, and still have something left to hold off Blind Luck. She couldn't do that with much lesser in the Oaks, and it's likely she wouldn't be able to do it Friday.

The F&M Turf is over her head right now too.. So what did that leave for her? I can tell you that Mott was not far away from putting Unrivaled Belle in the F&M Sprint as well, so you can understand how these decisions are made. Also, how can you negatively judge her potential for success on a turn back to 7f, (in start #14 on a dirt track she seemed to relish earlier in the year), on a result from her 4th career start 11 months ago at Hollywood when she faced colts as a 2yo. This race is probably the spot that could produce her best result at this point recognizing that there is a big difference between a 6f and 7f sprint. Does she have 6f sprinter speed? No. Does she have the kind of speed that can be effectively used at seven eighths? Yes. Next year as a 4yo, she could be better suited to try the F&M Turf or the Distaff, but right now, I think the F&M Sprint makes sense.

All of this said, I'm likely picking Champagne d'Oro in the race as she is the most likely winner and a square price anywhere close to the ML. But I'm including Evening Jewel.

There are several reasons I think the the Distaff is the spot to go. First off, I think Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle to overcome than anything in the Distaff. Even beyond Champagne, the sprint is a better and tougher field.

Next, she really hasn't been trained up to a sprint to end her season, has she? She's been running very effectively at longer distances. Who in their right mind uses the QEII as a prep for a grade one sprint??!

As for her ability to sprint vs. going 9 on dirt, well, if you can use the reasoning that she might have improved since her December sprint, I don't think it's a stretch to say she might have improved since the Oaks in what was essentially early May.

Her race in the Oaks, she sat off the lead and I see no reason why that wouldn't happen again. Also, I don't think Blind Luck is going to win the Distaff anyways. I think she's a toss.

That all being said, if she were my horse, I'd probably have run her in the Cal Cup and ran QT in the BC mile. I don't think there are any spots that she fits well in the BC.

However, with that, I believe it's entirely possible she'd have cashed a nice check in the Distaff. The Sprint though, I think the race would need to fall apart for her to make any noise at all.