Poly speed disaster at keeneland

Originally Posted by alysheba4

.......glad you brought this up oracle, last sunday i had win plays on 2 horses.....cant remember the races, both horse looked home free gate to wire.......then both made a weird shift / stagger towards the rail its like they hit quicksand at the same point. hell with that stuff my friend...... i was home clear on an easy lead deep stretch both times and lose

The only wire to wire winner was a heavily favored huge dropdown in class horse who himself struggled to get home first.
In my life, I don't think I've ever seen a racetrack, at any level, under any circumstances where 29 dirt races were run over 4 days and onely one horse wired the field. Its unheard of.
So much for the "fair, honest, surface".

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

The only wire to wire winner was a heavily favored huge dropdown in class horse who himself struggled to get home first.
In my life, I don't think I've ever seen a racetrack, at any level, under any circumstances where 29 dirt races were run over 4 days and onely one horse wired the field. Its unheard of.
So much for the "fair, honest, surface".

What do the numbers look like in BC races? I don't doubt that 1 in 29 seems low but with big fields it greatly decreases the number of wire to wire winners you'll see. It may need a little tweaking or it might just be that the frontrunning horses aren't that great and are getting more pace pressure because of the bigger fields.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

What do the numbers look like in BC races? I don't doubt that 1 in 29 seems low but with big fields it greatly decreases the number of wire to wire winners you'll see. It may need a little tweaking or it might just be that the frontrunning horses aren't that great and are getting more pace pressure because of the bigger fields.

I'll pull up the last 5 Bc's and see ok? I havent checked yet and will only look at the dirt races from the last 5 years.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I'll pull up the last 5 Bc's and see ok? I havent checked yet and will only look at the dirt races from the last 5 years.

Of course Keeneland hasn't had Ghostzapper yet!

Gonna need 6 years to get a 30 race sample comparable to the 29 run so far.

2005- Folklore wired em 1/5

2004- Ghostzapper wired em 1/5(2/10)

2003- Adoration wired em 1/5 (3/15)

2002- Vindication wired em
Azeri wired em 2/5 (5/20)

2001- no wire jobs 0/5 (5/25)

2000- Tiznow wired em 1/5 (6/30)

Ok so thats 20%, with big fields at 5 different race tracks, some who are regarded as closer favoring tracks moreso than others, some with no noted bias, and some with a noted speed edge. Ho hum.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Gonna need 6 years to get a 30 race sample comparable to the 29 run so far.

2005- Folklore wired em 1/5

2004- Ghostzapper wired em 1/5(2/10)

2003- Adoration wired em 1/5 (3/15)

2002- Vindication wired em
Azeri wired em 2/5 (5/20)

2001- no wire jobs 0/5 (5/25)

2000- Tiznow wired em 1/5 (6/30)

Ok so thats 20%, with big fields at 5 different race tracks, some who are regarded as closer favoring tracks moreso than others, some with no noted bias, and some with a noted speed edge. Ho hum.

I'd think 15-20% should be about right. I think you need a few more than 29 races to draw a conclusion but if it gets to 100 races and you still have less than 8 wire to wire winners then they might want to tweak it a little. Didn't Turfway have similar problems at first and then fixed it?

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'd think 15-20% should be about right. I think you need a few more than 29 races to draw a conclusion but if it gets to 100 races and you still have less than 8 wire to wire winners then they might want to tweak it a little. Didn't Turfway have similar problems at first and then fixed it?

So by the last few days of a 3 week meet things oughta be just fine!! LOL!!!!