|
|
 |
|
|
|
#1
10-04-2010, 11:33 AM
|
||||
|
||||
It took some real artistry to get Zenyatta's Beyer to 100.
They ran 3 route races at HP on Saturday. They were races 6, 7, and 9. The Norfolk, Lady's Secret, and Goodwood Norfolk * Jaycito broke his maiden in the Norfolk despite an impossible five wide trip on both turns - and was given an 87 Beyer  That figure represents a 9 point new career top - impressive considering he had a trip from hell. * Fellow maiden Riveting Reason also had to overcome a wide trip and finish 3rd at odds of 36/1 ...  Despite the tough trip - he got an 82 Beyer - which represents an 11 point career top for him, and an improvement of 14 points over his last start. * The horse who benefited with a ground saving trip was hapless 71/1 longshot 4th place finisher Clearance Clearance  he surged to a 20 point new career top - running an 80 despite having to eyeball stellar sprinter J P's Gusto for a long way on the early lead. * And finally - J P Gusto was 2nd as the heavy favorite in the Norfolk despite racing very rank and struggling to settle - yet his Beyer was only 1 point lower than it was in his 4.5 length Grade 1 romping Del Mar Futurity win last time out. I played against J P's Gusto in this race because of his pedigree. His sire Successful Appeal was an extremely good sprinter who once ran a 119 Beyer at 6fs. Twice competed in the BC Sprint. The dam of J P's Gusto - Call Her Magic - once ran a 107 Beyer going 5 furlongs on the turf, while winning a small stake by a huge margin at Delaware Park. She had major distance limitations - but was a freaky female turf sprinter. Obviously ... The Norfolk figure seems a little too high .. but, remember, the whole objective seems to be to get Zenyatta to a 100. Lady's Secret * Zenyatta wore down Switch late to win. She was given a 100 Beyer. Zenyatta was given a 95 Beyer for her Clement Hirsch win last time out - but only after a variant was split with the days other route race - which was run 30 minutes earlier. Because of the very slow pace that benefited Dance to My Tune and Rinterval - and hurt Zenyatta - the final time figure should have been in the mid to high 80's last time. Dance to My Tune has been beaten twice since, including getting dusted by 9 lengths as the 3/5 favorite at Fairplex in a 50K stake. Rinterval, who has lost 20 of her last 21 races against a lot of crummy competion, has yet to run back. * 3yo filly Switch was 2nd and was given a 99 Beyer.  *pace setter Moon De French (who had failed to hit the board in every prior attempt in non restricted stakes races) and Satan's Quick Chick (first off of a 9 month layoff - and was 6th at Presque Isle Downs in her most recent attempt at a synthetic route) dead heated for 3rd place .. both earning Grade 1 black type. Emmy Darling - who was claimed last time out - rounded out the field. Goodwood * I can't recall the last time a horse was off the board as a 3/5 favorite in a Grade 1 stakes race - and still ran a new lifetime top Beyer in the same race. Well, that's what happed with soundly beaten 4th place finisher Twirling Candy .. his 99 Beyer in defeat represents a new career top for him. * Richard's Kid won this race with a 105 Beyer .... 9 points higher than the 96 he ran in winning the Pacific Classic last time out. Did Richard's Kid really improve 5 lengths over his Pac Classic repeat win? Keep in mind, 5 lengths on synthetic is HUGE .. it's typically the difference between first and sixth in a lot of races. * Crown of Thorns ran an awesome race second off of the year layoff - and stretching out from 7f to 9f. That's a brutal stretch out on synthetic - even a little more so than turf in my opinion. Anyway - he overcame a lot of pressure applied by Twirling Candy - and ran a great race to get a 104. * 3rd place finish Dakota Phone got a 100 Beyer. He was also 3rd to Richard's Kid in the Pacific Classic last time out - there he ran a 94 Beyer. His Beyer spiked 6 points. Coming into the Goodwood - he had run figures of 94, 95, 95, 91, 89, 86 in his last six starts. To me, it looks like everyones figures were inflated by about 5 points just to get Zenyatta to a 100. 
|
|
#2
10-04-2010, 12:17 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Your using dirt logic to critic figures on a surface were figures mean nothing........WHY?
__________________
"To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize"...Voltaire
|
|
#3
10-04-2010, 12:25 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
In truth, they certainly mean a whole lot more on synthetic than turf - and at face value, like most people take them - they mean a whole lot more on synthetic than dirt as well. I have a lot of experience handicapping and betting on races on synthetic tracks - you're not talking to someone during year one of Keeneland polytrack when no one had any idea what to make of it. Mikey Smith!! Yay!!
|
|
#4
10-04-2010, 12:42 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
__________________
"To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize"...Voltaire
|
|
#5
10-04-2010, 01:28 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Do you think the inflation is merely the result of the Beyer people being aware that others perceive them as anti-Zenyatta? Are they inflating the figs simply to avoid being criticized for supposedly having an agenda against her?
|
|
#6
10-04-2010, 01:45 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Perhaps they're embarassed to give her a number as low as she earned. If she somehow wins the BC Classic off of 95 Beyers it might make them look bad to people whom they shouldn't even be worrying about.
|
|
#7
10-04-2010, 02:02 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
I think there seems to be an effort being made by those in the media, to make Zenyatta into this all time great.
Between the totally brainless stuff written up by Davidowitz, and I think Haskin, to the pure blabber coming out of the talking heads at TVG, to the hyped up BCC call by Denman, and supposedly experienced and otherwise fairly intelligent 'insiders' saying she's go great, it just seems like there is a lot of effort going on to make us believe she's the second coming of Secretariat. I mean really, all this stuff is just total nonsense. I've never seen so many people lose their heads over something that really isn't nearly as great as they seem to think. It's all rather UN - BE - LIEVE - A -BLE!!
|
Hybrid Mode
