Look Back at Saratoga Meet.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Jockeys dont keep horses from changing leads. A horse that changes leads in the stretch 5 times is a horse that has some issues. About the only thing that you can accurately glean from lead changes is that a horse that wont change or changes back to the wrong lead is probably hurting. Everything else is pretty much horse specific.

You're missing the point. MOST good jocks can keep horses on righty lead in the drive. If you watch enough races you realize that while horses do win when they don't change leads, they win even less when they stay on righty lead briefly, changing back lefty. This is because, obviously, they've gone around the turn lefty. Watching a few of Lezcano's rides makes it obvious that he not only is a very weak handler of horses when it counts, in the lane, but he's unable to keep them on righty lead. Clearly, there are horses that don't change leads or, even, more rarely, horses that change repeatedly. Typically, multiple changers are cheaper horses, mostly fillies, and sore horses. This isn't the case with Stevil. In fact, I believe that just about any other jock wins with Stevil last time out.

Is there an argument that maintaining the same lead, and thus continuity of stride, is a huge plus in winning a race? Your better jocks, those, in particular, that can finish well, excel at this. Your weaker finishers don't.