Best Maiden Race of the meet so far...

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The answer is clearly "yes". Do the math. Pletcher's winning percentage this year is 27%. What was it last year? I believe it was about 24%. For the two years combined, his win percentage is about 25% or so. He is winning with Cohen at a 37% clip for that time period. If he's winning with Cohen at a 37% clip (from 113 mounts) for that time period but his overall win percentage is 25%, that means that there have to be other jockeys out there that are only winning at about a 13% clip for Pletcher. I don't know specifically which jocks. I'm sure you could look it up.

Another stat that is significant is the ROI. When JV and Pletcher pair up, the ROI is only $1.67. When Pletcher and Cohen team up the ROI is $2.51. That means that if you bet $1,000 to win on every Pletcher/Cohen horse, you would be up about $28,000. If you bet $1,000 on every Pletcher/JV horse, you'd be down over $80,000.

I was able to find one that is significantly lower. The Pletcher/Dominguez combo wins at a 20% clip.

Thank you for explaining to me what you'd be up if you were betting the horses and the amounts. Can you explain to me what front bandages are for and why some horses make a poop while they walk in the paddock?

I don't know why you're on such a crusade with this. So Dominguez winning at "only" a 20% clip means that Cohen is somehow a more potent combination with Pletcher? Come on, he's riding 2nd tier horses, that's not a mystery. His 8 winners with Pletcher since Aqueduct ended all happened during Triple Crown weekends, when JV was at Monmouth, or when JV had another mount in the same race.

They're 1-7 together at Saratoga with the 2YO firster being the only winner. Is Cohen a negative? Of course not but if you're using him as the rationale to play a firster bred to go long from the rail in a race that's going to have a sub even money favorite then you probably lose often.

NT

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I don't know why you're on such a crusade with this. So Dominguez winning at "only" a 20% clip means that Cohen is somehow a more potent combination with Pletcher? Come on, he's riding 2nd tier horses, that's not a mystery. His 8 winners with Pletcher since Aqueduct ended all happened during Triple Crown weekends, when JV was at Monmouth, or when JV had another mount in the same race.

They're 1-7 together at Saratoga with the 2YO firster being the only winner. Is Cohen a negative? Of course not but if you're using him as the rationale to play a firster bred to go long from the rail in a race that's going to have a sub even money favorite then you probably lose often.

NT

I'm not sure you understand my point. What started the conversation was that Simon Bray and FreddyMo both said that they would throw a Pletcher horse out if Cohen was on the horse and JV was on another horse. I'm saying that would be a mistake. That's all I'm saying.

I think it would be a mistake with any trainer to throw out a horse based on the jockey, if the jockey has a record with that trainer that is better than the trainer's average. When a jock rides a lot for a trainer and has done well for a trainer, that jock is obviously working plenty of horses for that trainer in the morning. If Cohen, for example, works a young horse for Pletcher and Cohen really likes the horse and wants to ride the horse, it would be quite possible that Pletcher may let him ride the horse, even though he is not Plethcer's #1 rider. I think it would be crazy to throw out a Pletcher horse with the rationale that "Pletcher must not like the horse or he wouldn't be riding Cohen."

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Thank you for explaining to me what you'd be up if you were betting the horses and the amounts. Can you explain to me what front bandages are for and why some horses make a poop while they walk in the paddock?

I don't know why you're on such a crusade with this. So Dominguez winning at "only" a 20% clip means that Cohen is somehow a more potent combination with Pletcher? Come on, he's riding 2nd tier horses, that's not a mystery. His 8 winners with Pletcher since Aqueduct ended all happened during Triple Crown weekends, when JV was at Monmouth, or when JV had another mount in the same race.

They're 1-7 together at Saratoga with the 2YO firster being the only winner. Is Cohen a negative? Of course not but if you're using him as the rationale to play a firster bred to go long from the rail in a race that's going to have a sub even money favorite then you probably lose often.

NT

for one...who even bets these races seriously? those baby races are like the worst betting events known to man. they are for mostly watching. secondly, johnny v. is many times given the slower horse. they are not stupid, they laugh when the 8 to 1 comes in, while johnny v loses on the 6-5. i've seen it many times where hes on the overbet horse and the "other" jock gets the rocket at a price. he did this with decarlo too. other than watching the money (thats wrong alot too). those races are a crap shoot. if you are saying to bet these sub even money faves...you are nuts....i'll take my chances somewhere else.